Handicapping the Home Run Derby

Whoever said that the home run derby was for the fans, they were wrong; the home run derby is for the gamblers. With that in mind, I would like to present the odds for this year's home run derby. According to Bodog's sportsbook, at 2/1, Ryan Howard is the favorite to defend his title. Here are the odds:

1. Ryan Howard 2:1
2. Prince Fielder 3:1
3. Albert Pujols 7:2
4. Justin Morneau 9:2
5. Vladimir Guerrero 6:1
6. Matt Holliday 10:1
7. Magglio Ordonez 11:1
8. Alex Rios 12:1

Given the recent history of the derby, I would be inclined to go with one of the hitters you would least expect to win it. Think about it, aside from last year when Howard took home the crown, it has been non-home run hitters who have dominated the derby the past few years. Bobby Abreu won it in 2005, Miguel Tejada in 2004, and Garret Anderson in 2003. Those three players have combined for 15 dingers this year. Every player in the derby has at least that many, except Vlad (14) and Mags (13). Taking a look at those stats, and it's almost a curse to win the derby. Anyways, my money's on Rios, he has the sweetest and easiest swing of them all. Of course, I'll be sitting here with my head in my hands when he fails to go ya-ya, but for now, that's my pick.

Previously at FanHouse:
How to Improve the Home Run Derby