Johan Santana Is Can't Miss; Prospects Aren't

The Johan Santana sweepstakes hasn't really heated up yet, though we do know of at least one team (the Yankees) actively working with the Twins to make a deal. The question that still lingers, though: is Santana worth the price of admission? Are three top young prospects too much to ask for a 29-year-old pitcher?

The answer is no, and Tim Marchman has the reasons why:

This gaudy résumé vastly understates how valuable Santana is. Among pitchers, he is by far the surest bet in baseball; he literally has no weaknesses.
Still in his early prime, Santana throws in the middle 90s, changes speeds masterfully, and has unrivaled control, and thus should be able to easily adjust when, years from now, he does lose a bit of his edge to age. He has never thrown more than 120 pitches in a game, and despite this has averaged 228 innings the last four years. From 25 to 28, he has pitched 912.1 innings, and his park-adjusted ERA has been 56% better than average. Since integration, two pitchers have done better at the same ages while pitching at least 800 innings: Martinez and Maddux. Roger Clemens's mark was exactly the same.

The only recent parallel for a pitcher anywhere near this young and this good being traded is Martinez. [...]

Considering Pedro Martinez went on to have some of the best seasons in the history of the game post-trade, that is lofty, lofty praise. Considering pitching prospects are a crapshoot, and Santana is Santana, there's no reason a team should shy away from making this deal. The question now is whether the Yankees and others will have the goods -- and will be willing to deal them -- to get as much of a can't miss thing as there is in baseball today.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

11-27-2007 @ 9:41PM

Gary said...

Let's hope the Stankees don't get him!

11-27-2007 @ 11:22PM

Buzz said...

The Twins should ask for the 2 best pitching prospects and 2 starting players from the Yankees, such and Matsui and Cano. Santana is the best pitcher I have seen in many years. As long as he's healthy, he is in Bob Gibson's class. Yes I saw Gibson pitch in his prime, so I know. He is far better than Mussina, Johnson, Schilling, Martinez, Buehrle, Sabathia or any other star pitcher you can name. If the Yankees get him, they will be going to the World Series again. Its that simple.

11-28-2007 @ 7:15AM

john said...

Cano & Melky are as untouchable as Joba & Hughes.
Who is going to play outfield if they trade Melky? Damon?, Matsui?.
Abreau(Gene Simmons) has one year left, Matsui is the DH & Damon is the leftfielder.
Trade Cano? you must be crazy. This guy will bat 3rd when Gene Simmons is gone.
Send them Wang & 2 prospects for Santana,, and thats all. offer no more.
You can send the A's Ian Kennedy & 2 prospects for Dan Haren.
Keep the C&C boys, Joba & Hughes in New York.

11-28-2007 @ 8:04AM

Bob Gibson? He was righhanded & threw smoke.
Santana is lefthanded & throws changeups.
Gibson Pitched in his prime off that rediculous mound. When they lowered the mound, he was just another pitcher.
Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, but it is not worth trading any of the 4 young stars to get him. let alone 2 rising stars.
Cano & Hughes? no way!!
Melky & Joba? No way!!
Lasting Mildew & Aaron Heilmann? Twins will Laugh.

11-28-2007 @ 7:36AM

Mr.Yankee said...

as seen in my blog --->http://memotosteinbrenner.blogspot.com/2007/11/johan-santana.html

In my opinion. I think that We should'nt trade for Santana he becomes a free agent in 2008,
I wouldn't trade any of the big three (Chamberlain, Hughes or Kennedy) I would however trade Melky and I would love to get rid of Cano whom I think would flourish in Minnesota!
Let the Twinss sweat it out!!! Let's see the winter meeting come by and nobody take the trade bait! Let the season go by....Than watch Minnesota get desperate to trade him, and maybee his asking price go down?
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The only team i fear being able to snatch him from the Yankee's is the angels they have the prospects to get it done! Other than that , I'd wait it out....
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better a staff like this -->
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Santana L
Chamberlain R
Wang R
Hughes R
Kennedy R/Chase Wright L
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than without ???
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And what if Joba doesn't work out as a starter, unlikely but still? and they have to put him back in the pen...or need him there? You still have Kenndy and Hughes!
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I think Kennedy is going to be a good one I think, Joba is a phenom and Hughes too much potential , I would however package Wang with Cano amd Cabrera.......WHAT DO YOU THINK???
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Besides: Next year there are alot top notch pitchers becomming free agents ....Santana...Sabathia ...etc. etc.... etc...
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?what do you think?
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http://memotosteinbrenner.blogspot.com/2007/11/johan-santana.html
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11-28-2007 @ 8:02AM

I agree with you Mr.Yankee,, Dont trade for Santana at all.
You cant trade Cano, period.
If you trade Melky, then the hole Minnesota has in centerfield becomes the hole in centerfield for the Yanks.
I like your rotation, but you are not getting Santana without giving up one of the other 5.
Dont forget about DeSalvo & Clippard too.
I say offer Wang & 2 minor league prospects, then wait for the price to go down.
The A's will take Mildew & Pelphry from the mets for Dan Haren. Yanks can top that in their sleep.
Just would hate to see Melky & Cano go.

11-28-2007 @ 8:09AM

If this was 1999,, would you trade Jeter, Posada & Pettite for Randy Johnson??
Same as Cano, Cabrera & Wang for Santana.

11-28-2007 @ 11:06AM

dalelama said...

I would give up Melky and his weak bat in a flash and move Damon back over to center...Once the season got serious (Sept 1) he disappeared and in the post season he couldn't even get the ball out of the infield (remind you of anyone else ??? LOL)...I would give them either Kennedy or Hughes (we need to keep Joba as another bullpen option or to replace Mariano) and then I would let Minnesota pick any two others from the farm system except Austin...

11-28-2007 @ 8:35PM

Joe said...

The Yanks should tell the Twins to fugetabout it!!

11-28-2007 @ 8:36PM

The Yanks should tell the Twins to fugetabout it

11-29-2007 @ 11:01AM

ANGEL R. CRUZ said...

LEAVE SANTANA IN MINNESOTA. LAST YEAR HE WAS HIT FOR THE FIRST TIME-MAYBE ALL OF THE INNINGS ARE CATCHING UP- THE BRONX SWALLOWS UP STAR PITCHERS(MESSERSCMIDT, WHITSON, HAWKINS,JOHNSON,PAVANO,FARNSWORTH,ETC). NOT A PLACE TO DETERIORATE!

11-29-2007 @ 8:25PM

nick said...

okay guys lets face it were talkin johan santana the guy has two cy young awards and for the past i dont know how many yeaArs he has been in the top 5 for the lowest era.the guy is amazing he is lights out when he gets on the mound and guys face it if the yankees want another championship he is the guy that is going to get us there. every season he is a 18+ game winner with a era under 3.00 come on what more do u want.if the yankkes were going to trade him this is who they shouls trade for:

ian kennedy- face it he has not done alot for us

phil huges- also another guy that is only a 5 game winner

melkey cabrera- i mean i love melkey but is he the kind of batter that is going to get home runs and hit good in the clutch. he doesent have a great bat. but no question about it he is an amazing fielder but if we did trade him you still got damon that looks okay to me.

IF THE YANKKES WANT A GOOD PITCHER THERES ONE GUY FOR NY AND THATS SANTANA