Johan Santana's changeup is considered transcendent ... iconic, if you will. But there's a former World Series MVP and 250 game winner who thinks that Santana needs to
create some distance between himself and the changeup, and that person is
Jack Morris.
"It's my opinion that his changeup is definitely not a strikeout pitch," Morris said of Santana this past week in a telephone interview. "He has fallen in love with it. I don't like what I see, because I love his slider and his 95-mph fastball. His go-to pitch is what I consider his third pitch (...) History says that he'll pitch better in the National League. But it would be my guess that if he has any problems, it'll be because of that changeup. It won't be because he's throwing a nasty slider."
According to "Bill James Online," the new Web site by the godfather of modern-day statistical analysis, Santana has become increasingly reliant on his changeup. In 2003, his first full season in the big leagues, he threw 63 percent fastballs, 16 percent sliders and 15 percent changeups. By 2005, that evolved to 53 percent fastballs, 22 percent changeups and 15 percent sliders. And last year, Santana threw 58 percent fastballs, 29 percent changeups and 11 percent sliders.
"If you look at last year, compared to the rest of his years with the Twins, he gave up a lot more home runs [33, topping his high of 24 set in 2004 and 2006]," Morris said. "The majority of those home runs were changeups over the plate. If the AL is catching up to his pattern, if baseball is catching up to him, then he's going to have to reinvent the wheel. If the NL doesn't understand him, or doesn't scout him properly, he'll succeed. But if they get his pattern right away, Johan is going to have to adjust, not the hitters."
Morris did go on to say that he believes that Santana is, in fact, smart enough to adjust (and not dismiss statistical analysis as
certain managers would). And that's a good thing, because the last thing Mets fans need is another reason to panic going into 2008.
