On Deck: OMG!! JAY BRUCE!!

On Deck is FanHouse's look at the day's most intriguing baseball matchups

Cincinnati Reds (23-28) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (24-26) - 7:10PM Est.

There are certain events in human history which leave indelible marks on our lives and our memories. While we can't always remember where we left our car keys, or that cute girl from the bar on Friday's phone number, there are moments we just can't forget no matter how hard we try.

You remember exactly what you were doing and where you were doing it the moment you found out that John F. Kennedy had been shot. You remember everything about the morning that the World Trade Center came down.

Tonight we fast forward in time a full 30 years when you'll be telling your children or grandchildren the story of where you were the very first time Jay Bruce stepped into a Major League batter's box, ready to take on the world.

As if a Reds/Pirates matchup needed any more hype!

Okay, so maybe (no, wait, definitely) I'm thinking the likely debut of Jay Bruce tonight is a bigger deal than it actually is. You have to admit, though, that for Reds fans, this is a big deal. They got a rough introduction to new manager Dusty Baker when he chose crappy veteran Corey Patterson to be his centerfielder over the wunderkind that is Jay Bruce. In Dusty's defense, Bruce's ability to get on base consistently really would clog up those bases.

Given the way Patterson has performed this season, and how Bruce has continued to hit down in AAA, odds are tonight won't be the last time Reds fans get to see him patrolling the outfield and mashing balls all over the Great American Ballpark.

Tonight Jay will look to support Johnny Cueto, who needs all the support he can get after he lit the world on fire in his first few starts. Cueto has only one once in his last nine starts to see his record drop to 2-5 and his ERA grow to 5.56.

Ian Snell gets the nod for the Buccos, and much like Cueto, he's been struggling since starting the season 2-0. He hasn't won a game since April 12th, and he's 3-4 with a 5.18 ERA in eight career starts against the Reds.

Arizona Diamondbacks (30-21) vs. San Francisco Giants (20-31) - 9:40PM Est.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are happy to be returning home to Chase Field tonight after a road trip through Atlanta and Miami that saw them go 2-5. The trip has dropped the DBacks record on the road to 11-13 and they're now 10-16 against non-NL West opponents. So they'll also be happy to see divisional foes, the San Francisco Giants coming back to Arizona with them.

Arizona is 4-1 against San Francisco so far this season, including 2-0 at home, and tonight they send Dan Haren to the mound to make it 5-1. Haren likes Chase Field more than anybody, as he is yet to lose there while wearing a Diamondbacks jersey, going 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA in six starts there this season. Haren has made eight starts against the Giants in his career, all as an Athletic, and though he's 4-4 he's won his last four starts against them.

Still, beating the Giants won't be easy tonight as they'll be sending Tim Lincecum to the mound. Lincecum is 6-1 on the season with a 2.17 ERA, and as good as Haren is at home, Tim is just as good on the road. He's 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA away from the bay this season, and is 1-0 with a 1.32 ERA in two starts against Arizona.

Los Angeles Angels (31-22) vs. Detroit Tigers (20-31) - 10:05PM Est.

At the beginning of the season, people were looking at the Angels and Tigers as the two teams who could eventually be facing off in the ALCS with a trip to the World Series on the line. So far, the Angels have been holding up their end of the bargain. The Tigers? Not so much.

Though there are signs of life in Detroit, as the Tigers did manage to score 58 runs in a five game span last week. Unfortunately, as has been the case this season, they've followed those performances up with a couple of duds in their last two games, including being shutout by the Angels last night.

Thing won't get easier tonight as the Angels send Ervin Santana to the mound, who is looking to get back on track. After starting the season 6-0, Santana has lost his last two starts, and is 0-2 with a 6.62 ERA in his last three starts. Ervin hasn't had too much success against the Tigers either, going 3-2 with a 5.46 ERA against them in his career, though he is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA against them in two starts in Anaheim.

The Tigers will counter with Jeremy Bonderman who is trying to win back-to-back starts for the first time this season. Bondo is 3-3 with a 4.97 ERA in nine starts against Anaheim, and is 2-2 with a 6.21 ERA in the six starts that have come in Anaheim.

Everybody Else

Orioles vs. Yankees - 7:05PM
Indians vs. White Sox - 7:05PM
Cubs vs. Dodgers - ESPN - 7:05PM
Phillies vs. Rockies - 7:05PM
Mets vs. Marlins - 7:10PM
Rays vs. Rangers - 7:10PM
Brewers vs. Braves - 8:05PM
Royals vs. Twins - 8:10PM
Cardinals vs. Astros - 8:15PM
A's vs. Blue Jays - 10:05PM
Padres vs. Nationals - 10:05PM
Mariners vs. Red Sox - 10:10PM

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

5-27-2008 @ 4:59PM

SharksRog said...

Jay Bruce is quite a young talent. He has really leaped through the minors the past year-plus. But I worry about all his strikeouts and wonder if he will hit better than new teammate Adam Dunn (not that Adam is any slouch).

When one looks at Jay's .364 batting average in AAA this season he can't help but be impressed -- particularly coming from a 21-year-old. But he has struck out nearly once every four at bats, and his .442 BABIP wouldn't appear to be anywhere near sustainable. If his BABIP were at the major league average of around .300, his batting average would be more like .265.

Like Dunn, I think Jay will hit a ton of home runs. But also like Adam, I don't think he will hit for a high average. And unlike Adam, Jay doesn't seem to draw enough walks to get his OBP well above average.

Jay is still young, of course, so he has time to learn to draw more walks. And perhaps he will cut down on his strikeouts. And maybe he's a truly great hitter who can sustain a BABIP up as high as .350.

But unless he accomplishes all three of those things I don't think he will be good enough that we truly have to worry about where we were when he made his big league debut. He probably doesn't need to accomplish any of the three to be a very good player. If he accomplishes only one of the three he can probably equal Dunn. And if he accomplishes two of the three he can be a Hall of Famer (possibly even with just one -- or even none).

But for us to be worried about where we were when he made his major league debut, I think he will need to accomplish at least two of the three improvements and likely all three in order to become a Bondsian-type figure.

In short, while I would LOVE to have Jay on my team, I think the possibility remains that he could be overrated.

5-27-2008 @ 6:47PM

NeonDon said...

TOM, your forgetting one little detail...other learned baseball people said the same things about Corey Patterson when he first came up to the bigs. There ain't no such thing as a SURE thing, you should know that. Do da name Sean Burroughs ring a bell...or Josh Paul or even guys like Prior, Wood and Clement! Sh*t happnes...even in baseball. Now if Bruce was taking over for a guy named Wally Pipp!!!!!!!!...............

5-27-2008 @ 8:05PM

By the way, you'll notice the Reds also dumped Hatteberg, not Patterson, when in, fact they need first basemen more than outfielders. (And they know Dunn is not exactly J.T. Snow at the bag...in fact not even Ted Kluszewski). So the Reds have not given up on Patterson's ability has a hitter, fielder, and baserunner just yet. Votto may or may not be here to stay, but now Hatteberg is gone. That's a big gamble. They were willing to take that chance rather than dump Patterson (even with Freel). And they have quite a few good young outfielders. So don't go dumping on Patterson and making Bruce the next Mantle, just yet!