It's hard to imagine a better way to kick off the mad dash to baseball's trade deadline than with the Brewers and Cubs pulling trades for big-name pitchers within two days of each other. Of course, those moves raise a pretty big question: who's the favorite to win the division now? Let's break it down.

Definitely not favorites: Pirates, Astros, and Reds. The Reds are young and exciting but at least a year away, the Pirates seem to be meandering down the right road but they're still way down the path in the wrong direction, and the Astros are a disaster area.

The Cardinals: This team perplexes me. By all accounts they shouldn't be very good, and yet they've still got the second best record in the NL and are ahead of the Brewers in the Wild Card standings. They probably won't join in the arms race with the Cubs and Brewers, but they get Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter back from the DL in pretty short fashion. Still, they're short on offense besides Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick, it's hard to know what to expect out of Carpenter after missing most of a season and a half, and Kyle Lohse is a prime candidate to turn into a pumpkin.
The Brewers: What makes them so interesting is how well they were playing before the Sabathia trade. Nine of Prince Fielder's 17 homers have come since June 1st. Manny Parra is 7-0 with a 2.65 ERA since May 20th. It's July and Ben Sheets' elbow and shoulder are still attached to his body. Really, they've got a lot of things rolling in their direction now that they've got CC Sabathia, who's on a roll of his own and may well dominate the National League.

The Cubs: If Jim Edmonds continues hitting like he has been of late, that means that every Cubs regular has an OPS+ of 98 or higher. There's not really a weak spot in the lineup. Their rotation has Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster (who's arguably been better than the Big Z this year), and now Rich Harden, who's a huge asset if he can stay healthy. And their bullpen has been lights out with Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, and company (Bob Howry excluded). They've tailed off a bit in the last month, but they're really freaking stacked.

The breakdown: I'd watch for the Cardinals to slowly fade out of the picture over the next month. They won't fall apart, but one day you'll check the standings and they'll be five back, then seven, then ten. They're just not equipped to keep up with the Cubs and Brewers. As for who the Cubs and Brewers, I think most people would be willing to bet at this point that they're both going to the playoffs and I agree with that. The Cubs look better on paper at the moment, but the Brewers have been the better team for the past month. The Brewers also got more in Sabathia than the Cubs did in Harden, because it's crazy to think Harden is going to make every start from here on out. I think this race goes down to the wire, but the Cubs pull it out in the end because they're a deeper team and they're starting with a four-game lead. The Brewers will have to settle for the Wild Card, but the playoffs are the playoffs, right?