Our MLB editor provides weekly dispatches from major league games in Notes From the Clubhouse.Before Daisuke Matsuzaka's start Tuesday night in Baltimore, someone asked Terry Francona what he thought of the absurd extra innings rule implemented at this year's Olympics, which allows teams to start each inning from the 11th on with runners on first and second base.
After, the Red Sox manager joked that he had gotten a pretty good idea what the rule was like just by watching Matsuzaka.
The Japanese pitcher ran his record to 15-2 Tuesday, but, just as it's been all season long, the win wasn't very pretty. He lasted just five innings, facing runners on first and second in each of the first three frames and escaping a bases loaded jam in the fourth. He made hitters miss plenty -- striking out six -- but he continued handing out free passes at an alarming rate -- walking six.
"It's kind of a tightrope act sometimes," says Francona. "He has the ability to make pitches. He has power on his fastball."
The problem with a tightrope act like Matsuzaka's season-long one is that when his luck runs out, it could be spectacularly ugly for the Red Sox. Here are the worrisome details:
- Despite a 15-2 record and a 2.77 ERA, Matsuzaka has surrendered 77 walks.
- His miniscule .258 batting average on balls in play is unsustainable (major leaguers average between .290 and .310).
- Only 22 percent of runners who have reached base against him this year have scored.
- Opponents are hitting .190 against him with runners in scoring position and hitters are an astonishing 0-for-14 against him with the bases loaded.
His high strikeout rate allows him to escape from some of the tough situations he puts himself in, but there's no arguing that Matsuzaka has been almost unfathomably lucky this season.
"If you have a lot of chances, sooner or later someone's gonna get a hit," says Francona. "That's what we've gotta stay away from, because a single hit can lead to a big rally."
Still, it's hard not to also wonder if there's something about his approach that allows him to succeed more than the average major league pitcher in tough situations. Anecdotally, he seems completely allergic to contact in all situations. Could he be willing to surrender a walk here or there if it helps him avoid giving up hits at all costs?
Here's another number to consider:
- When hitters swing at Matsuzaka's pitches they make contact 76 percent of the time. Compared to Josh Beckett (81 percent), Jon Lester (82 percent) or even AL Cy Young favorite Cliff Lee (81 percent), it's clear that Matsuzaka is particularly difficult to hit. And if opponents have a tough time making contact against him at all, doesn't it also follow that when they do get the bat on the ball, they often make weak contact?
I suspect that though it's a big part of his success, it's not entirely luck that Matsuzaka has gotten such good situational results this year.
Since World War II, there have been six seasons where a starting pitcher has walked more than five hitters per nine innings and had an ERA below 3.00. Two of those seasons were pitched by Nolan Ryan. He turned out all right.
Matsuzaka is well on his way to joining that group, but he's also chasing his own record. His .882 winning percentage in 2008 equals the best single-season mark in Red Sox history. It might not be pretty, but Matsuzaka could wind up as one of the biggest winners Boston has ever seen.
