
From The Windup is FanHouse's daily, extended look at a particular portion of America's pastime.
Though it shouldn't be, as Brinson told us yesterday, the NL Cy Young race is likely a closed deal as things currently stand -- unless Brandon Webb keeps laying eggs. The Rookie of the Year race won't even be a contest with Geovany Soto running away with it. The MVP, however, is wide open.
In order to make sure we leave no stone unturned, let's examine the criteria. First of all, there are two predominant methods taken when people want to argue about MVP.
1. Bloggy/Spreadsheet Guy Who Never Played Baseball Method: Look at VORP. Whoever has the highest VORP should be the MVP, because the game of baseball isn't played on a field with human beings. It's played on a computer spreadsheet with robots that don't feel emotion or pressure.
2. Old, Stubborn Writer Guy Method: Check out the Triple Crown numbers for the everyday players on contending teams. If you have a 1.500 OPS and 200 steals and play Andruw Jones (circa 2003) defense on a last place team, you just don't count. You can't possibly be valuable to a team unless said team is good.
As with most things in life, the answer invariably belongs somewhere in the middle. Unlike pitchers who can only affect one aspect of the team every fifth day, position players do have a big impact on how well their team is performing day in and day out. Obviously there are eight guys, so if you have the second coming of Babe Ruth dominating the league from last place, you have to consider him. On the other hand, if there isn't a huge disparity between the players, you must favor the guy from a contending ball club. The reason is quite simple. It's much easier to hit when the at-bats don't really matter.
I know Ken Tremendous would want me neutered for saying as much, but if anyone's ever played on teams at a high level, they know what I'm talking about. I've seen guys who are literally scared to bat when the situation is significant, but whenever we were taking batting practice they could rake. I've seen pitchers say their arm is hurt to avoid pitching in a monumental team game, while others are nails in the same situation. Simply put: Players on contending teams have a tougher go, and thus should have a bit of an advantage in MVP voting. Chipper Jones hasn't had an at-bat matter since May. Ryan Braun hasn't had one that didn't matter all season. If you don't think that should be considered, you needed this reality check. Mental toughness matters in sports, and the most valuable player in the sport must be mentally tough.
On the flip-side, the new-school numbers matter as well. Bring on the VORP to sort out the worthy candidates, and then sort out the other stuff (team standing, leadership, clutchiness, etc.) later.
Your top ten in VORP* are Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Hanley Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Jose Reyes, Matt Holliday, Chase Utley, David Wright, Ryan Ludwick, and Ryan Braun.
I'll toss out Chipper (bad team) immediately. Unfortunately his numbers aren't outstanding enough to warrant consideration from such a crappy team. I'd also eliminate Wright and Ludwick, because you can't be the most valuable player in the league if you aren't the most valuable on your own team (a fact lost on voters from '06 with Justin Morneau, but that's in the past). The biggest issue I see here, though, is that there aren't any Cubs. Does this offend me as a Cubs fan? Not really, but when a team has the best record in the league by 4 1/2 games they must have at least one person worthy of consideration. This is where I nominate Aramis Ramirez for entry into the race. Yes, I see that Geo Soto is ahead of Aramis, but Ramirez's performance in the clutch separates the two.
The Cubs are tied for the major league lead with 39 come-from-behind victories. Aramis Ramirez has had a hand in nearly all of them. He's also heating up as the games start to matter a bit more, with a .975 OPS and a MLB-leading 27 RBI in August.
His "late and close" numbers are just stupid. In 83 plate appearances (not a small enough sample size to just write off as coincidence), his OPS is 1.371*, with eight home runs and 27 RBI. Those are better than all the gentlemen I listed above, and only Pujols and Berkman -- players on teams trailing the Cubs by more than 10 games -- are even in the same ballpark. Ramirez's OBP in these situations is .530*. Think about that, he's been up to bat 83 times in the 7th inning or later with either a one run lead, tie game, or the tying run at least on deck ... and he's been on base 53 percent of the time. Just as an example, in Chicago's loss to the Astros Monday, the game ended with the Cubs trailing by two and two runners on base. Aramis Ramirez was left on deck. Ask any Cubs fan around what they thought would have happened had he come to the plate. I wasn't even curious. I knew the result would have been a Cubs win -- of course I also knew it wouldn't happen because Derrek "6-4-3" Lee is the anti-Aramis (a different topic for a different day). Ramirez does, after all, lead the majors in RBI from the seventh inning on.
Is all this enough to overcome the fact that Ramirez is 18th* in VORP and satisfy the spreadsheet nerds? No way.
Is it enough to overcome the .279-24-100* Triple Crown numbers and satisfy the old dudes? Doubtful, but the Cubs are on their way to the best record in the NL ... and those guys love that.
At this point in time, I'd admittedly have Pujols, Hanley, Braun, and Chase ahead of my homer pick ... but the gap isn't huge, and there's nearly a month of baseball left to play. A couple more "clutch grand slam to take the lead in the eighth inning" or "two three-run homer" games and the race will get even more interesting. Yes, I would currently vote for him over Reyes, Wright, Chipper, Holliday, Berkman, etc.
Don't count Aramis out. He may just bust out the whoopin' stick on your favorite team.
*All numbers were posted before Tuesday night's games.


Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-03-2008 @ 5:28PM
Ken Reitz said...
Sorry, but you've got the wrong A. Ramirez and the wrong Chicago team.
Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox is hitting over .400 with runners in scoring position and has pretty much carried the offense for the last four months. (Take another bow, Kenny Williams.)
MVP voters, please make a note of it.
Reply
9-03-2008 @ 7:54PM
brian said...
A-Ram made an error in the 9th, 10th and 11th inning of the Cubbies' 11th inning loss to the Astros at home at Wrigley Tuesday night. They were the only errors of the game. The 3rd finally helped lead to the Cubbies' 4th straight home loss. Sounds like the "clutch" performance of another, well, "A-" "star."
Reply
9-03-2008 @ 8:44PM
Zach said...
you are a joke...albert pujols is the MVP and best hitter on the planet...check the stats
Reply
9-23-2008 @ 6:39PM
Sean said...
How is Ryan Howard not in anyones topics? Yea, he's batting .245, that will never change but despite the low average and 2nd most K's he is #1 in HRs and RBIs and will score over 100 runs...and on top of that...the Phills are in 1st because of his stellar Sept. numbers! Yes, Pujols is one of the greatest hitters but and MVP calliber player must catipolt his team to the top of the Division or top of the wild card. He hasn't done that and it is way too late. Same with Braun and Wright. Although I know David Wright and is undoubtedly one of the best in the game...the Mets are struggling big time while the Phillys progress! Please...someone argue with that!!!
Reply