Eye Toward October: Sept. 8

With the playoff chase coming down to the wire, our MLB editor rounds up the five biggest pennant race stories in Eye Toward October.

- Cracks Beginning to Show: The Rays have been the darlings of baseball all season long, a cuddly teddy bear of a baseball team for the mainstream media to fawn over. But September is here, and it's time to start looking at Tampa Bay as just another serious World Series contender instead of some AL East sideshow. Like every other playoff team, the Rays aren't without flaws.

Their offense is very middle of the road. They rank 12th in the AL in batting average and seventh in slugging, and they're still without Evan Longoria -- the only regular currently slugging over .500. Indeed, it seems 3/4 of the core of their offense (Longoria, Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton) is banged up in some fashion with the revelation that Upton has played with an injured shoulder for much of the season.

On the pitching side, most of Tampa Bay's young starting staff is on track to pitch more innings than ever before, raising concerns about fatigue over the finals weeks of the regular season and in the playoffs. The bullpen is strong, but closer Troy Percival's frequent trips to the disabled list raises questions about roles.

All this isn't meant to take away from the Rays -- after all, isn't this what they've wanted all along, to be just another contending baseball club. They are going to make the playoffs and have the type of team that could make a deep run.

But they're going to be tested like never before in the coming weeks -- first by facing the Red Sox in six of their next nine games and then by whoever they draw in the first round of the playoffs. As great as the Rays have been all year, they woke up Monday morning with a worse run differential than the third-place Blue Jays.

- Johan's the Man: The Mets might wind up missing out on the playoffs again, but they have to feel much better about their chances with less than three weeks to play, and it all comes down to the guy they brought in to be the man -- Johan Santana.

The two-time Cy Young winner was everything they needed him to be Sunday night, pitching into the eighth inning and holding the Phillies to just two runs. Santana saved the Mets from a disastrous sweep at the hands of Philadelphia -- one which could have been as damaging mentally as it would have been in the standings.

- Max Power: Unlike the Mets, Arizona couldn't avoid a calamitous sweep against its divisional rival over the weekend. The Diamondbacks have their work cut out for them if they wish to return to the playoffs again, but there was at least one silver lining.

Rookie Max Scherzer was terrific making an emergency start for Randy Johnson, fanning 11 over 5 2/3 innings on Sunday. It might be the only good news Arizona got out of the weekend, but at least it has a capable replacement for the Big Unit should he need to miss another start. In fact, considering how poorly Yusmeiro Petit's last start went (4 2/3 IP, 5 ER), it might be worth inserting Scherzer into the rotation even if Johnson is healthy.

- Dodging .500: And how about those Los Angeles Dodgers? They've wrested first place from Arizona, and they have a great chance to build momentum in the coming weeks. Joe Torre's club will not face a team over .500 the rest of the way, giving them a decided advantage in the NL West race. The D'backs will face largely the same type of competition, but a four-game series in St. Louis the final week of the season is looming, and could decide the division.

- Toronto Troublemakers: The Blue Jays will have to settle for wondering what might have been had they played better earlier in the year and playing the role of spoiler. Toronto will play 11 of its 20 remaining games against the Red Sox and White Sox.