From the Windup: Francisco Rodriguez Is Going to Be a Very Rich Man

From the Windup is FanHouse's daily, extended look at a particular portion of America's pastime.

Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez is hurtling rapidly toward the single-season saves record. The flashy Los Angeles reliever has 55 saves this year, two short of Bobby Thigpen's record of 57, and with more than two weeks remaining he's a virtual lock to set a new benchmark for relievers.

Perhaps not so coincidentally, Rodriguez will also be a free agent this winter. In the pantheon of contract years, his 2008 season has to rank right up there with the best.

The Angels are not expected to bring back Rodriguez, but at least six teams have already been linked with the closer -- the Cardinals, Rays, Tigers, Indians, Cubs and, with the injury to Billy Wagner, the Mets.

No closer in baseball is more renowned than Mariano Rivera, but Rodriguez has to rank a close second. He arrived on the scene during the Angels' 2002 World Series run, becoming the breakout star from that club despite making his first appearance with it on Sept. 18. He's the fastest player to 200 saves in major league history. And, like any great closer, he has flair -- from his bending, tilting slider to his ostentatious, sky-pointing save celebration.

At 26, what team wouldn't want Rodriguez in its bullpen, right? Considering how much money Rodriguez stands to make in the offseason, the proper question should really be who in their right mind wants to pay for his services?

The Yankees' Rivera is the highest-paid reliever in baseball history. The three-year, $45 million contract he signed last winter set a record. B.J. Ryan got the largest contract in total value, signing a five-year, $47 million pact with the Blue Jays in the winter of 2005.

Rodriguez figures to shatter both marks this winter. Rivera, as great as he is, was almost 38 when he signed his latest deal. Mostly because of his age, but also because of his loyalty to the Yankees, the great Rivera couldn't command nearly as much as Rodriguez will. He doesn't quite have Rivera's pedigree, but K-Rod makes up for it by being 12 years younger, and seemingly willing to go anywhere.

Ryan, on the other hand, didn't have near the track record of Rodriguez when he entered free agency. He had only been a closer for two years in Baltimore before hitting the open market. He was also 29, three years older than Rodriguez, when he signed with the Blue Jays.

K-Rod figures to sign a deal the length of Ryan's for more money annually than Rivera receives. If he gets a deal worth $17 million annually, he's looking at an $85 million payout this winter.

We're reminded just how desperate every team in baseball is for reliable relief pitching every trade deadline, but is a pitcher who will not even throw 100 innings in a season, no matter how dominant, ever worth that kind of money?

The obvious answer is probably not. That's the type of money you spend on an elite corner outfielder or a No. 2 starter, not a player who will pitch an inning at a time (and maybe not even the most high-leverage inning), and that's before even getting into the attrition rate of relievers. Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are the exceptions to the rule. The major league landscape is littered with closers who flamed out after a few dominant seasons.

But there is a reason beyond even those that no team should invest that kind of money in Rodriguez. Other than the saves statistic, a metric that is heavily dependent on how many close games his team plays in, he's having the worst season of his career.

Rodriguez's strikeout rate is as low as it has ever been. He's still walking more than four hitters per nine innings. He's blown more saves this season than in any since inheriting the role full-time from Troy Percival. And he's been more hittable than ever, allowing the highest opponents' batting average and OPS of his career.

Rivera, Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon are all having better seasons than Rodriguez. So are lesser names like Joakim Soria and Bobby Jenks.

K-Rod has been nothing short of great in an Angels uniform, and he'll go somewhere next year -- the guess here is the Mets -- and be hailed as a savior. But given the money he'll get, the expectations that will come with that and also his declining peripheral numbers and violent mechanics, it's unlikely he'll end the next portion of his career with the same savior moniker.