From the Windup: A Strange Year in Houston

From the Windup is FanHouse's daily, extended look at a particular portion of America's pastime.

A strange thing is happening in the National League wild-card race this year. The Brewers, who had a stranglehold on the race as recently as about a week ago, have fallen apart and opened the door up for a number of teams who seemed to be as good as done. One team who's had the door opened for them is the Houston Astros. They've spent most of the season well out of contention, but a well-timed hot streak has them contending, much like the Rockies did last year.

What makes this hot streak even more interesting is that the man behind it, general manager Ed Wade, has made a string of nearly inexplicable, almost indefensible, moves to try and improve the team. They are making a run at things, but it's been mostly lead by Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, and Ty Wigginton. All of them were Astros before Wade's hiring. What, exactly, is going on in Houston?

Wade's first major move in Houston was to trade for Miguel Tejada, giving up Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Dennis Safarte, and Mike Costanzo to Baltimore in the deal. Giving up five players for one in any deal is a risky move, but giving up five players for Tejada has been nearly disastrous. He's two years older than Wade thought he was when he traded for him, he appeared on the Mitchell Report and was nearly barred from re-entering the country, and he's only hitting .271/.302/.382 since April 23rd. In Baltimore, Scott's having a career year and Albers and Safarte were useful relievers before an injury and move to the rotation, respectively, which hurt their effectiveness. The trade was a huge win for the Orioles, even with Troy Patton going down early in the year with shoulder problems.

After a decent early start, the Astros went into a tailspin in June. This was around the same time that Wade got into a shouting match with pitcher Shawn Chacon (a Wade signee), which ended with Chacon choke-slamming Wade in the team cafeteria and getting cut two days later. The Astros didn't improve through June and as July wore on, logic dictated that they would likely be sellers at the trade deadline. The team's most productive hitters this year (using VORP) are Berkman (32 years old), Carlos Lee (32), Wigginton (30), Tejada (34), and Kaz Matsui (32). The top pitchers are Oswalt (30), Geoff Geary (31), Brian Moehler (36), Wandy Rodriguez (29), and Jose Valverde (28). Only two of their key contributors this year are under 30, and those two are a closer and a starter that's not even going to throw 150 innings.

So we know the Astros have an old core of players. That would be fine if they had a bunch of promising young players to supplement the old players with, but they don't. When John Sickels reviewed his preseason top 20 Astros prospects he described the system as having, "a definite paucity of impact types." Faced with this minor leaugue system, and equipped with an old team that was light years from contending at the trade deadline, Wade had two choices: either blow his team up and start the rebuilding process in the minors or acquire veterans and blindly stab at the postseaon. Wade picked up Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins. In the face of long odds, he decided to make a run at things.

Is this Wade's fault? The minor league system was already awful when he got to Houston and though he really pillaged what was left of the system with the Tejada trade, it's not that much worse than it was when started. There's a lot of scuttlebutt coming out of Texas that Drayton McLane has ordered Wade to build a winner at all costs. That certainly seems likely, but what's Wade actually done to facilitate a winning team? His best chance to do that was to add an outfielder after Carlos Lee got injured (Adam Dunn was still on the market when Lee went down, Barry Bonds is still available) and the best Wade could do was to add Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins. They've helped, sure but in the end the contributions from them will be minimal.

Still, after last night's win the Astros are winners of 13 of their last 14 games and they've crept to within four of the Brewers in the wild-card standings. But step back from the situation for a moment and look at the Astros. Is a team with Tejada at short, Michael Bourne in center, Darin Erstad in left, and Brandon Backe, Brian Moehler, and Randy Wolf backing Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez in the rotation capable of going to the World Series? Just because they're hot in September does not make them the Rockies. The Rockies last year were a team full of talented young players who hit hot streaks and were spearheaded by young pitching finding their stride. This Astros team is Frankenstein's monster of veterans that's somehow cobbled together a bunch of wins and benefited from a superior team's collapse. If this team somehow backs into the playoffs, it's hard to imagine they'll stand much of a chance against the NL East winner in a short series.

That's the true crime of what the Astros have done. Wade and McLane have (mostly through the Tejada trade) delayed the makeover the Astros' minor league system desperately needs, all in the name of a slim chance to lose to the Mets in four games in the NLDS. Next year, every player I named above will be that much older and a bunch of them have injury histories. Because of those factors, it's possible that Oswalt, Lee, and Tejada will be untradeable. A myopic view of the situation makes it appear that the Astros are four games away from a wild-card berth this year. A much broader view gives the impression that they're two years away from being a smoking crater in the standings where a baseball team used to be. Is the illusion of contention this year worth that?