From the Windup is FanHouse's daily, extended look at a particular portion of America's pastime.

Unless you're a Red Sox fan, the best story in baseball this year is the Tampa Bay Rays. By now, everyone likely knows the story but let's recap. In 1998, the Rays came into existence. In every season between 1998 and 2007, they won between 61 and 69 games, except for in 2004. They won 70 that year.

This year, though, is a different story. With last night's win over the Red Sox, they've got 90 wins and a two-game lead in the AL East, a division that seemed to be locked in a deep stranglehold that the Yankees and Red Sox would never let up. The amazing part is that everyone saw this coming in some form. GM Andrew Friedman has rebuilt Chuck LaMar's mistake from the ground up and the Rays are winning because they're good, not because they're lucky.

Baseball is cyclical and every couple of years, a young team bursts on the scene and surprises everyone. Who among baseball's long suffering franchises is next? There are seven franchises that haven't made the playoffs since the turn of the century; the Pirates, Nationals, Royals, Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, Orioles, and Rangers (sorry Mariners and Giants fans, you've been good this century and that disqualifies you from this exercise), so let's take a look at them and see if we can't figure out who might be in line for the next turnaround.

Too Good

Milwaukee Brewers- Sorry, Milwaukee. The Brew Crew may collapse and miss the playoffs this year, but Doug Melvin's really got this franchise on the right track. They've already clinched their second straight winning season and third of .500 or better in the last four. They'll lose CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets this winter, but Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra will still be there to anchor the staff and Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder aren't going anywhere for a few years either. Four compensatory picks for Sheets and Sabathia won't hurt.

Toronto Blue Jays- The problem here is that the Jays aren't actually a bad team and haven't been for some time. J.P. Ricciardi is a fairly decent general manager and they've been above or around .500 every year since 1997 except for 2004. Just because the Yankees and Red Sox blocked them at the top of the division for a decade doesn't mean they fit the bill of a team that's similar to the Rays. That's just the way the cookie crumbles in baseball purgatory, I guess.

Too Bad

Washington Nationals- So long as Jim Bowden is involved, this team is going to be hopeless. They're bad now and they don't have much in the minors, so they're going to be bad for a while. Don't think about the Nationals. They will make you sad.

Pittsburgh Pirates- First-year GM Neal Huntington has taken this team in the right direction in his 12 months on the job, but that there's still a long ways to go.

Kansas City Royals- They're in a similar boat as the Pirates. Dayton Moore has done a promising job as GM since taking over for Allard Baird, but Baird's hole was dug so deep that they're going to be in it for a while.

Just Right

Cincinnati Reds
Why it might be them: Edinson Volquez, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, and maybe even Homer Bailey make a very nice, very young core to build a team around. Beyond them there's some interesting names in the minors (Todd Frazier, Daniel Dorn) that are a ways away. Still, throw in Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips, Bronson Arroyo, and Aaron Harang and this team could really surprise some people next year if Walt Jocketty swings a big move or two in the offseason.

Why it might not be them: Young pitching is extremely volatile. Bailey's already started to implode and both Volquez and Cueto threw a lot of innings this year. Without those two, the Reds will be in trouble. Also, Dusty Baker is the manager. There's no telling what his shenanigans may lead to.

Texas Rangers
Why it might be them: First things first, this team is already kind of good. Chris Davis, Ian Kinsler, and Josh Hamilton is a good young power core that they'll control for a while. They've got some holes to fill out, but having four catchers (Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Gerald Laird in the bigs, Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez in the minors) should help them plug some of those holes either by trades or position changes. The pitching's not there yet either, but Neftali Feliz has become one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and Michael Main had a breakthrough this year as well.

Why it might not be them: Their pitching is still very young and a ways off. As it stands now they seem to me to be more likely to slowly creep their way into contention like the Brewers have rather than to suddenly burst on the scene like the Rays did this year. Not that that's a bad thing at all.

Baltimore Orioles
Why it might be them: Don't look now, but in a year Andy MacPhail's done a yeoman's job fixing the punchline that used to inhabit Camden Yards. He's had a couple of good drafts and got very good yields in trades for both Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada over the offseason. While his job is nowhere near finished, he's undeniably got the O's on the right track with the young players that are already in Baltimore and their farm system. Adam Jones and Nick Markakis form a solid outfield core and Matt Wieters turned himself into the best prospect in baseball this year with an insane first professional season that saw him put up a .460 OBP in Double-A. He should be in Baltimore sooner rather than later. The pitching is still suspect, but a bunch of help should be on the way in the form of Chris Tillman, Jake Arietta, and this year's first round pick Brian Mautsz.

Why it might not be them: They're cursed by their division. The Yankees have the highest payroll in baseball, the Red Sox have a ton of money and know how to use it, and the Rays have what's probably the best stockpile of young talent in all of baseball. Like the Rangers and Reds, relying on young pitching is always something that can backfire terribly. Also, the Orioles are still owned by Peter Angelos, which is a recipe for certain disaster like none other.