MLB Playoff Debates: Angels vs. Red Sox

Every four years, Major League Baseball's postseason intersects with a presidential election. This is one of those years. In the spirit of the season, we here at MLB FanHouse have divided the playoff teams up for a series of debates. Here Andrew Johnson and Matt Watson discuss the ALDS between the Angels and Red Sox.

Andrew Johnson: Between the Brewers and Rays, the 2008 postseason has a pretty fresh feel. Not so much in this series. For the third time in five years the Angels will face the Red Sox in the first round. The last two meetings haven't gone well for Los Angeles -- both were sweeps in Boston's favor.

I don't anticipate a Red Sox sweep this time around, but it's hard for me to see the outcome being any different for the Halos. But why you ask? The Angels have 100 wins and the best record in baseball you say. They went 8-1 against Boston this season you add.

None of these facts faze me. Why? The Red Sox are simply a better baseball team. Their run differential of plus-151 is a staggering 83 runs better than the Angels. And it's all the more impressive considering Boston played 54 games -- roughly one-third of its schedule -- against the Blue Jays, Rays and Yankees. All three clubs won at least 86 games.

Matt Watson: For the most part, you're exactly right: the Red Sox definitely put together a very impressive season. I'm not as quick to dismiss their 1-8 record against the Angels as you are, but considering these teams last played in July, I'll concede there are more relevant factors to consider.

Like, for instance, the fact that the Red Sox are limping into the postseason. Josh Beckett, the postseason ace in the hole, won't pitch until Game 3 at the earliest, and even that's a best-case scenario. Jon Lester is no slouch, but he's not quite the same pitcher on the road, where he's posted a 4.09 ERA compared to a 2.49 ERA at Fenway.

As impressive as Boston's run differential has been, doesn't it scare you that some of the Red Sox's biggest run producers are currently held together by scotch tape and voodoo? Mike Lowell's hip is about to explode and J.D. Drew has played all of two games the last six weeks thanks to his 98-year-old back. David Ortiz hasn't been David Ortiz all year, and while I'll always stop whatever I'm doing to watch his postseason at-bats, the reality is that right now Mark Teixeira is by far the best power hitter in this series.

Andrew Johnson: The injuries to Beckett, Drew and Lowell certainly sap some of my confidence, I'll admit that.

This might sound odd considering his dominance last October, but the potential loss of Beckett worries me least in the short term. There are two reasons behind that. First, he's throwing a side session in Anaheim. Considering his start would come at Fenway Park, it tells me a lot about his health that the team would let him fly across country. That's a long way of saying I think he's going to start Game 3. Second, Beckett just hasn't been the ace he was last year. If Beckett didn't have the name and the postseason reputation, Lester would have been a slam dunk to start Game 1 anyway. Moving Lester up also gets him a start at home, where, as you point out, he is much more effective.

The Red Sox offense, on the other hand, just isn't quite what it used to be. That was always going to be the case once Manny Ramirez was sent packing. If Lowell and Drew can't go, their depth will be tested even more, but they do have a strong bench.

I'll give you Teixeira (while also pointing out that Ortiz had an 1.102 OPS over the last two weeks), but the Angels are hardly the picture of health as a whole offensively. Howie Kendrick has missed long stretches. It's been a rotating door at shortstop. Garret Anderson is hitting like a 36-year-old. Vladimir Guerrero hasn't exactly set the world on fire either, at least by his own standards.

Teixeira makes the Halos' offense more imposing, but does he make it more imposing than Boston's? I'm not buying that.

Matt Watson: Boston's lineup may look more impressive on paper, but the heart of LA's order is heating up at just the right time. Guerrero hit .412 (1.152 OPS) in September, Teixeira hit .333 (1.048 OPS), and even old man Anderson hit .356 (.822 OPS). And once you get past them, the bottom of the lineup has been raking the last month, too -- Mike Napoli hit .453 (1.414 OPS) and Gary Matthews (Gary Matthews!) hit .318 (.860 OPS).

I know I said I wasn't going to talk about L.A.'s 8-1 record against the Red Sox this year, but chew on this: in those nine games, the Angels hit .305 with a .901 OPS -- and Teixeira only played in one game! The Red Sox, meanwhile, hit just .252 (.758 OPS). I know, I know, the sample size makes these numbers virtually irrelevant, but the fact of the matter is that the Angels are one of the few teams with the pitching staff -- from their starters all the way through their bullpen -- to contain Boston's lineup.

Andrew Johnson: I'm glad you brought up the Angels' pitching staff.

Let's start at the top with presumptive ace (and cousin to FanHouse bloggers) John Lackey. There are three things we know about Lackey right now. He's been terrible lately (8.14 ERA in September). He's been really terrible against the Red Sox for his entire career (5.54 ERA vs. Boston). And Fenway Park, in particular, has been a house of horrors for him (6.34 ERA). He'll start Game 4 there.

Let's skip over Ervin Santana -- he's been excellent this year -- and go right to Game 3 starter Joe Saunders. Not only is Saunders recovering from passing a kidney stone, he's also pitched way above his head all season. He doesn't miss bats and he's no great ground-ball pitcher. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) ERA is a full run higher than his actual ERA. Saunders is due for a major correction. What better place than the postseason?

Onto the bullpen. The only discernible way that Francisco Rodriguez is better than Jonathan Papelbon is in the saves column, and that's just because he got an inordinate amount of opportunities this year. The Red Sox own Scot Shields (7.26 career ERA against Boston). Considering the emergence of Justin Masterson and the strong finishes of Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen, I think you can say something you've scarcely been able to say all season -- the Red Sox have a better bullpen than the Angels.

As for the Halos, Lackey and Saunders will start three of the first four games in this series. There may be a pair of pitchers in the postseason that can take down the champs, but it sure doesn't look like these two are right for the job.

Matt Watson: Lackey certainly hasn't had any problems against Boston this year: in two starts, he's posted a 2.81 ERA while allowing a .132 batting average. And that house of horrors you speak of? How soon you forget that he came within two outs of a no-hitter in his last trip to Fenway.

Maybe Saunders has been pitching above his head, but can't the same be said about Daisuke Matsuzaka? Saunders may not miss many bats, but at least he doesn't give up free bases like Dice-K, who's walking more than five batters per nine. Dice-K posted a 5.03 ERA in four postseason starts last year, not once lasting longer than 5 1/3 innings.

As I see it, the bullpens are a wash -- Papelbon and K-Rod are both studs, and Shields and Okajima are two of the best setup men in the game. (And while I concede that Shields hasn't posted the best numbers against Boston in the past, he more than held his own in the postseason last year.)

All in all, this should be an exciting series. I like the Angels' chances, but it won't be easy -- these two teams are pretty evenly matched. But in the end, it'll be Angels in five.

Andrew Johnson: None of these first-round matchups are easy to project, but the uncertain status of some of Boston's key players make this one as tough as any. Predictions are always a dangerous game, but I see J.D. Drew gritting it out in right field and Josh Beckett going in Game 3.

I don't think the Red Sox have another sweep in them. The Angels have improved and Boston isn't quite as good as it was last year. But I don't think Los Angeles has done enough to overtake the defending champs either. I've got the Red Sox in four.