MLB FanHouse NLCS Roundtable

With just over 24 hours to go before the first pitch of the National League Championship Series, the writers of the MLB FanHouse gathered for a discussion of the Phillies and Dodgers. It didn't take long for the discussion to veer away from who will win and onto the ever fascinating and potentially otherworldly Manny Ramirez.

Josh Alper: Is it just me or is it really hard to find a clear edge in this series? The Dodgers and Phillies each have strong rotations, bullpens and offenses. The biggest difference, to me, is that the addition/return of Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal give the Dodgers a stronger 1-8 lineup than the Phillies. Not by a lot but by enough to give them a slight edge over seven games.

Tom Fornelli: Both these teams are incredibly hot right now. The Dodgers are 20-8 (including playoffs) in their last 28 games, and over that same time period the Phillies are 20-9. A strong series from Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, or Pat Burrell can easily propel the Phillies past the Dodgers. Which is why I'm leaning more towards the Phillies because I think they have more options on offense, whereas the Dodgers are basically centered on Manny.

Will Brinson: It's really tough to quantify the difference in the Dodgers with Furcal's return. I hate to sound like some generic VORP hating sportswriter, but he really does spark that lineup up top by getting on base and generally not being Juan Pierre.

Craig Calcaterra: They are very similar teams and it's hard to find a clear on-paper edge. I think the outcome, however, is going to be whether Utley and Howard are able to contribute at anything approaching their regular season norms. They were a combined 4 for 26 against the Brewers. Sure, they were picked up by Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins, but if their two biggest bats stay cold for the NLCS, they're dead.

Because predictions in a short series are basically crap shoots, there's nothing wrong with going with non-VORPY gut when it comes to these things. Indeed, Utley and Howard's coldness notwithstanding, I'm inclined to believe that the Dodgers will win because the thousands of little Martians that live inside and operate the humanoid machine that is Manny Ramirez are motivated to return to Boston for the End-of-Days confrontation with Red Sox fans ad will thus no doubt program him to rake.

Will Brinson: These Martians are cartoony -- like Marvin as opposed to a generic scary alien -- right?

Craig Calcaterra: Oh, absolutely. The sinister "Mars Attacks" martians currently reside in A.J. Pierzynski.

Pat Lackey: There's not a hitter in the world right now that's more terrifying. The man is consumed with the idea of destroying the NL in the playoffs, just so he can bat .800 against the Red Sox in the World Series. I don't know how the Phillies are going to stop him short of the Bonds treatment.

Josh Alper: I can't argue with the Martian rationale one bit. Manny's salary drive is a marvelous thing to watch and I can't imagine the Phillies will do any better at slowing it down than the rest of the National League.

Matt Snyder: If you were on the mound right now ... who is the one player you'd be most terrified to face? I think I'd rather see Albert Pujols digging in than Ramirez right now. That home run Manny hit in Game 1 was effortless and into a strong wind ... and it wasn't even close to not leaving the yard.

Eamonn Brennan: And, it should be noted, that "the Bonds treatment" doesn't really count as stopping him. If he's OBP-ing .900, he's still hurting you. Just, you know, not with 600-foot home runs.

Tom Fornelli: While I agree that Manny has been amazing, I feel the need to point out that any one player in this series can be the one who makes the difference, not just Manny. Yeah, the Phillies can keep putting him on base, but if Andre Ethier and James Loney don't drive him in, it doesn't really matter. It's also incredibly important that Furcal and Russell Martin continue hitting like they did in the Cubs series so that the Phillies don't have any choice but to pitch to him.

Of course, it should also be pointed out that in his career against the pitchers on Philly's staff, Ramirez is hitting .322 with 21 homers and 60 RBI in 177 at bats.

Mullet: Switching gears, I think during the Cubs series we saw the official coronation of Jonathan Broxton as the Dodgers closer. Joe Torre says he hasn't made up his mind yet, but Broxton looked like he had some of those Martians in him during the last series. You could say that Soriano helped him out on that last at-bat, but the speed and movement on Broxton's pitches were nasty. In any event, the Dodgers' bullpen looks solid no matter who the closer is.

Matt Snyder: I wouldn't say no matter who. Takashi Saito gave the Cubs their only extended rally in Game 2. Sure, the game was already over ... but that was a "build some confidence" outing given to him by Torre, and he didn't pitch well at all.

Will Brinson: Torre seems pretty ridiculously loyal, which means he might roll with Saito anyway. He did, after all, leave Matt Kemp and Ethier on the bench at the expense of Druw Pierre.

Josh Alper: Torre's been better about adapting of late. Blake DeWitt has stayed at second, Pierre is anchored to the bench and Nomar Garciaparra's only value is as a backup story about returning Red Sox in the Series if the Manny angle ever gets exhaused. Broxton got the call in Game 3 and I think he'll keep getting the call.

What about the closer on the other side?

Pat Lackey: Once a Brad Lidge, always a Brad Lidge.

Mullet: The one matchup I'm looking forward to is Lidge vs. Manny in a big spot in the ninth. Gives me goose bumps.

Will Brinson: I agree. The idea of seeing someone put Pujols' moonshot up against however far Manny hits a walk off in one YouTube is thrilling in and of itself.

Josh Alper: Okay, so who is everyone picking to move on to the World Series? I like the Dodgers in 7.
Craig Calcaterra: Dodgers in 6.
Matt Snyder: Dodgers in 7.
Eamonn Brennan: Dodgers in 7.
Mullet: Dodgers in 7
Pat Lackey: Dodgers in 6.
Matt Watson: Dodgers in 7.
Will Brinson: Dodgers in 6.
Andrew Johnson: Phillies in 7.
Tom Fornelli: Phillies in 6.