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Tale O' Tape: NLCS Game 1 Pitching - MLB FanHouse

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Tale O' Tape: NLCS Game 1 Pitching

Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge.

Game 1 of the NLCS pits Phillies' ace Cole Hamels against one of the hottest pitchers in the league, the Dodgers' Derek Lowe.

Cole Hamels

Personally - Hamels absolutely dealt against a very powerful Brewers lineup in Game 1 of the NLDS at home, going eight innings and striking out nine. He only allowed two hits and one walk en route to the victory. He was on a solid roll down the stretch of the regular season, going 5-2 with a 2.37 ERA in his last nine starts. In those 60 2/3 innings, he struck out 49 while only walking 12.

Home Splits - 7-7, 2.99 ERA ... his record is the by-product of little run support.

History against LA - Hamels faced the Dodgers twice in '08, and, yes, it was the Manny-era Dodgers. In 14 innings he compiled a 2.57 ERA, striking out 12 and walking only two. He did give up one home run, a two-run job to Russell Martin.

Vs. specific hitters - All the sample sizes for this season are incredibly small, but only Casey Blake and Matt Kemp hit him well (each were 2-6). Martin did hit the bomb, but it was his only hit in six tries. Career numbers aren't much different, as no one on the current Dodgers squad has faced Hamels more than eight times and no one has more than two career hits.

Just in case you care -- and I know you do -- Manny Ramirez has two singles in eight at-bats against Hamels, with one RBI, one walk, and one punch-out.

Derek Lowe

Personally - He's coming off a good start in Chicago. He gave up seven hits in six innings, but the only real mistake was a 2-run HR by Mark DeRosa. It was still quality start -- enough to pick up the win -- with six Ks and only one walk. Coming into the playoffs, Lowe was scorching. Like a 0.94 ERA in his last 57 2/3 innings scorching. Yeah, ridiculous. Opponents only slugged .238 against him in that stretch, which only included a solitary home run allowed -- making the DeRosa shot even more surprising. He keeps the ball down and on the ground for his defense, which bodes well for his chances tonight in a home run yard.

Road Splits - 5-6, 4.42 ERA this year.

History against Philly - He faced the Phillies one time this season, August 11. In the game he went 6 1/3, giving up three runs on five hits. It was a good enough outing before the win, and set the stage for his aforementioned final nine starts. For his career he's 4-1 with a 3.02 ERA against the Phillies.

Vs. specific hitters - Chase Utley was 2-3 with two doubles on August 11 this year, and Jayson Werth also doubled in that game. Ryan Howard twice drove in runs without getting a hit. Jimmy Rollins was also 1-3, but again, this is a very small sample. Career number-wise ... we have a bigger sample.

Pedro Feliz -- 23 at-bats. .217 average, but he's gone deep twice.
Pat Burrell -- Six hits in 19 at-bats (.316), with two doubles and two RBI.
Jimmy Rollins -- Six hits in 20 at-bats (.300) with two doubles.
Ryan Howard -- Only two hits in 16 at-bats (.125) with no extra base hits and three RBI.
Chase Utley -- 5-14 (.357) with three doubles.

Also, Shane Victorino is 1-5 and Chris Coste is a home run for four.

Edge

This is as close to a wash as we can get, but I'm giving the slight starting pitching edge to Hamels and the Phillies based upon the home/road splits. Everything else is almost dead-even. Also, if history is any indicator, Chase Utley won't have trouble finding a gap. Should be low-scoring.

Again, though ... this is only starting pitchers. We haven't considered defense, bullpen, or any of a myriad of other variables. The game is played on the field, not on a spreadsheet.

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