Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge.Game 2 becomes as close to a must-win as you get for the Rays against the Red Sox. The pitching matchup is as follows:
Scott Kazmir
Personally - Scott Kazmir is a strikeout machine: 166 in 152 and 1/3 innings this season. But being a strikeout machine is often accompanied by high pitch counts, and they've certainly followed Kazmir around. Scott's 12-8 record was disappointing considering he started the season 6-1 while consistently pitching into the seventh and eighth innings. But Kazmir hasn't pitched more than six innings in a game since July 21st, yet his pitch counts have repeatedly topped 95. It's a recipe for disaster against a patient Red Sox team.
Home Splits - His ERA is over a full run lower at the Trop (2.90) than it is on the road (4.10) But his WHIP splits are negligible (1.29 at home and 1.25 on the road). Oddly, he's walked almost double the batters at home than he has on the road (45 to 25) despite only pitching three more innings at home.
History against Boston - This season, it's ugly. Kazmir is 0-2 in four games with a 9.00 ERA. Boston hitters have a .324 average against him this season and Kazmir's WHIP against Boston is at an unsightly 2.11. It didn't use to be that way as Kazmir was lights out against the Red Sox as a rookie in '04, and also had great numbers against them in '06. All together: a 6-7 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP.
Vs. specific hitters - Kazmir has done a great job against David Ortiz in the lefty-on-lefty matchup. Big Papi is batting a career .205 against Scott with 2 HR's and 8 RBI in 39 AB's. Kazmir has also had success against Kevin Youkilis (.200 career with 13 K's in 35 AB's). And luckily for Kazmir, Mike Lowell is nursing an injury. Lowell is a career .265 hitter with four HR's and seven RBI in 34 AB's. Bad news: Dustin Pedroia absolutely owns Kazmir. Check these splits out: .560/.621/.840, 14 for 25 overall.
Josh Beckett
Personally - It's been a far cry from last season when Josh Beckett was battling for the Cy Young award. Beckett went 12-10 this season with a 4.03 ERA, and battled injury seemingly all season. His playoff start against the Angels wasn't quite the postseason Beckett we've all come to know and love, and it's questionable as to whether injuries are still taking their toll on Josh. The good thing for the Sox is that Beckett is still capable of coming up with that stellar effort at any point going forward. Road splits - Stellar. On the road this season, Beckett has a 2.85 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and hitters can only ring up a .226 average against him. It's no fluke ... Beckett had a 2.18 road ERA in '07 against a 4.17 Fenway ERA. That's not good news for Tampa.
History against Tampa - Again, stellar. In five starts against the Rays, Beckett is 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA, a WHIP of 0.91, and Rays hitters are batting .209 against Beckett. And that's lower than his career numbers against Tampa (3.11/1.08/.235), amazing considering that this year presented the best that the Rays have had to offer.
Vs. specific hitters - There's not a lot of history here, but some interesting trends. For example, Jason Bartlett is 6-for-18 against Beckett with two doubles. Carl Crawford, meanwhile is 6-for-23 ... all singles. Highest OPS with over 20 AB's: Cliff Floyd, who is 8-for-28 with two HR's, and an OPS of .930 (much of which probably came while Floyd was a Met and Beckett was a Marlin.) Carlos Pena is 3-for-17 with a HR.
Edge
If Beckett is still indeed hurting, this game could be higher scoring than expected. But if Beckett is Beckett, there's no question that the slight edge goes to the Red Sox. I don't expect Kazmir to get lit up completely (except by Pedroia), but the Sox hitters are too good and too patient to let him get deep into the game. The Rays' hope is to light up the scoreboard against a less than healthy Beckett and depend on their bullpen to close the Sox out. If not, and if Beckett is close to full strength, then it will become apparent that the Rays' Game 1 loss will be the one that got away.
