Tale O' Tape: ALCS Game 4

Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge.

I hate going nuts with using the term "must-win," because it's really important to win every postseason game. You don't enter some games thinking, "hmmmm, we probably don't need to win tonight." That being said, the Red Sox backs would be totally against the proverbial wall should they cough this one up. They did come back from a 3-1 deficit against the Indians last year, but you don't wanna get into a habit of having to do so.

Tim Wakefield squares off against a dude -- Andy Sonnanstine -- who was nine when Wake debuted in the majors. Let's size 'em up.

Tim Wakefield

Personally - The 41 year-old knuckleballer compiled a 4.13 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in his 16th major league season. A usual good outing for Wake is seven innings and three earned runs, but sometimes he gets knocked around for six to eight runs. Either way, the Red Sox are going to need to score runs. His last outing was five scoreless innings against the Yankees on September 28th.

Home splits - This season he was drastically better at home. He was 7-4 with a 3.10 ERA at home, as opposed to 3-7 and 5.14 on the road. He allowed 20 less hits at home, despite only throwing one less inning.

History Against Tampa - This season the Rays weren't fooled much by the veteran right-hander. In three starts, Wakefield worked only 15 1/3 innings. He was touched up for 17 hits, 10 earned runs, and walked eight batters. That's a 5.87 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. The way the Rays swung the bats yesterday against Jon Lester, this type of an effort will not cut it.

Vs. Specific Hitters - Carl Crawford and Wakefield have squared off 85 times. The OBP in these plate appearances is only .329, but he does hit the ball. Crawford's got 25 hits in 82 at-bats, with four doubles, three triples, two bombs, and 10 RBI. Akinori Iwamura rakes against Wake, compiling a 1.059 OPS in 29 plate appearances. Dioner Navarro is 5-15 (.333), Evan Longoria is 3-6, and Jason Bartlett is 6-21 (.286) with a home run. The rest of the cast, however, hasn't had great success against Wakefield. B.J. Upton is 5-22 (.227) with no extra base hits, Rocco Baldelli is 3-26 (.115) with no extra base hits, Cliff Floyd is a single for 11 (.091), and Carlos Pena has only managed four hits in 30 at-bats. Pena has walked six times (.270 OBP) and hit a home run.

Andy Sonnanstine

Personally - Sonny sits right at the league average with a 4.38 regular season ERA. He compiled a 13-9 record in 32 tries. He does have solid control, walking only 37 batters in almost 200 innings. He did end the season with his best month, sporting a nice 3.16 ERA in the month (of course, he wasn't helped by his peers, as the 0-3 record shows yet again how stupid record is to use when judging pitchers).

Road Splits - His numbers are virtually identical except that he's a bit more susceptible to the long ball on the road.

History Against Boston - Sonnanstine locked horns with the Red Sox twice this season. He went 13 innings and only allowed nine baserunners. Two scored, but neither of them were earned runs. That's right, the kids got a 0.00 ERA against the Red Sox this year. He struck out 12 and only walked two.

Vs. Specific Hitters - Jason Varitek is 5-10 with a home run over the course of his career facing Sonnanstine. J.D. Drew is 4-11 (.364) with a homer, Coco Crisp is 3-10, and Jacoby Ellsbury is 3-12 with a homer. On the downside, many of the BoSox have struggled against Sonnanstine. David Ortiz is 3-16 with a .610 OPS. Kevin Youkilis is 1-12, Dustin Pedroia is 3-15, and Jason Bay has managed a double in a small sample of five at-bats.

Edge

It appears that the slight advantage lies with Sonnanstine and the Rays, despite Wakefield's track record of success at home.

It doesn't appear anything here is overwhelming enough to assume the starting pitching will determine the outcome, however. This game could become a high-scoring affair in which the bullpens get extra work.