Playoff Pulse: Phillies No Pushover

In the Playoff Pulse series, our MLB editor takes on a hot October topic.

Philadelphia captured its first NL pennant since 1993 Thursday night. The celebration is underway in the City of Brotherly Love, but so is the waiting game. The Rays and Red Sox still have some business to take care of in the American League, but no matter which team meets the Phillies in the World Series, they'll be the underdog.

That's largely a function of the AL's dominance in recent years. The junior circuit has won three of the last four World Series, compiling a 13-4 record over that span. The AL has dominated interleague play since 2004 as well, going 702-557 over the last five seasons for a .558 winning percentage.

Of course, that doesn't mean that the Phillies are dead in the water heading into the World Series. We know that anything can happen in a short series -- the 2006 Cardinals are living proof of that.

But there's reason beyond the random variance of a best-of-7 sample of games to think that Philadelphia has a very real shot to walk off with the World Series trophy at the end of the month.

For starters, the Phillies are not a red-hot team on a freak run as three of the last four NL pennant winners were. The Rockies finished with a historical flourish last September, the Cardinals won 83 games in 2006, but managed to win it all with a rotation featuring Jeff Weaver and Anthony Reyes, and the Astros were five games under .500 and behind eight teams in the wild-card race on July 1, 2005.

This Phillies club has been one of the best teams in the National League all season long, and they were particularly good over the last two months. They had the second best run differential in the senior circuit behind the Cubs, and the Red Sox were the only team in the AL to outscore their opponents by more runs.

They have the ingredients that sabermetricians and traditional analysts look for in a champion -- a good defense, a pitching staff that is much better than it appears because of the ballpark they call home and a shutdown closer in Brad Lidge. They even have an ace in Cole Hamels who is giving opposing hitters no quarter and one of the better lineups in baseball.

All of that doesn't mean the Phillies are going to knock off whichever AL East juggernaut winds up getting to the World Series. It doesn't even make it likely. But at least this time around, the American League champion will be getting the best shot of one of the top teams from the National League, not a team begging to be brought back down to Earth.

You can call the Phillies underdogs, but it'd be a mistake to underestimate them.

Yesterday's Hero: Jimmy Rollins, who set the tone from the first at-bat of the game. Honorable mention to Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard and Manny Ramirez.

Yesterday's Goat: Rafael Furcal, who booted away any chance the Dodgers had at mounting a comeback. Dishonorable mention to Chad Billingsley.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

10-16-2008 @ 11:15AM

gophillies said...

My father use to take me to see the Phillies when I was a little girl. I loved them since.
I remember cutting school to see the world series champs "Phillies" back in 1980. It would be a dream to seem them win it all once more in my life time.

10-16-2008 @ 2:20PM

cgreek23 said...

I stayed up to 1:30am the past two Phillies games just
soaking it in. Watching the games, listening to the
interviews, listening to the sports talk on 950, 1210 and
610 WIP, watching Comcast and the coverage on Fox. It
started on Monday night with an incredible come back win.
An improbable come back win off a closer who had not given
up a homerun in his house in two years (Broxton) to a guy
who has just been here for 20 some odds days and had only a
handful of at bats since joining this team, Matt Stairs.
Philadelphia fell in love with Matt Stairs that night and
all the next day when you read the quotes, heard the talk
and saw the replay. The guy comes out and says something
like, every day, every swing I take at BP all I try to do is
hit a homerun. Hit the ball out of the ball park. That
game Monday night was a Phillies classic. Down a couple
runs, playing hard, not getting any breaks, getting some
tough calls against, not swinging the bats particularly well
until the 8th inning. Kuo got one out some how but Ryan
Howard, who had made a huge error only two innings before
the 8th, got on with a single. Torre goes to his bullpen
for some guy name Wade and he gets Burrell swinging.
Probably swinging for the fences to try to tie this two run
game. But it's Shane Victorino, the Phils version of Mr
October, who turns this series with one swing of the bat and
lines a two run homerun just over the right field wall. LA
is stunned. Another visit to the mound and Torre's answer
this time is Broxton, a flame throwing right-hander who
reaches 98 to 99 with his fast ball and hasn't given up a
homerun in Dodger Stadium in two years. Carlos Ruiz gets on with a single. Matt Stairs pinch hits, gets the count in his favor and hits a 3-1 fast ball out of Dodger Stadium that would have been out of any Stadium. The celebration begins. This game was one of the greatest games in Philadelphia history let alone in Phillies history. There was great pitching from Joe Blanton, Ryan Madson, JC Romero, Scott Erye and Brad Lidge. Joe Blanton who everyone, including me, said was not enough starting pitching help for this team at the trade deadline. Well, he was and he is. Great defensive performances from Chase
Utley (that great diving double play), Shane Victorino who
made a great leaping catch in center field, Carlos Ruiz
calling a great game and stopping every pitch in the dirt to
Carlos Feliz just playing sound great D at 3rd. I would
have stayed up until 3am for this game.

Cole Hamels pitches a Curt Shilling, Steve Carlton like
performance last night and the Phillies are going to the
World Series. J Roll, my guy, leads off with a homerun,
scores another in the third inning after a walk and a steal
and the Phillies never looked back. This game had bad
defense but all from the Dodgers. These Phillies would have
been victorious even if Rafael Furcal remembered to bring
his glove with him to the field last night. These Phillies
would not be denied. They have said it numerous times and
it bears repeating: This team plays all 27 outs and never
gives up until the game is over. You have to respect this
team. We all search for greatness. We watch Tiger Woods
just hoping to see him do something spectacular. We all
need to watch these Phillies.

This all started well before Monday night for us Phillies fans. Last year the Phillies made the playoffs on the last day of the season we all started to believe this team was capable of great
things. They have a former MVP in Ryan Howard (who could
and should be this years MVP) and they have the reigning MVP in Jimmy Rollins. But much more than that they have a great great team. They don't have Lefty or the Kruker or the Dude or the Wild Thing or Dutch or Pete Inky Dinky or Charlie
Hustle or Michael Jack The Greatest Third Basemen in
Baseball History Schmidt but they have a great team. They
DO have a great team with great role players and a
tremendous bullpen. The Bat, J Roll, Ryan The Big Kid,
Pedro The Glove, Greg The Natural, The Bridge To Lidge Ryan Madson, The Cole Train, Lights Out Lidge and The Flyin'
Hawaiian. But more than all these guys, they have a great
team centered around a lovable manager that has pushed all
the right buttons at all the right times.

I've heard Eskin and that morning clown, Mr Negative, Angelo
rip Charlie Manual all year and last year. And I bought
into it. I have ripped Charlie Manual to anyone who would
listen. But I also heard LA, Larry Anderson ripping Charlie
Manual just a week ago but then went on to say that we may
not agree with what Charlie is doing on the field or
understand why he is doing it but the guy gets results. He
gets HIS team to play AS a team for 162 games. He gets HIS
team to play AS a team for 27 outs every game. And now they
are doing it for him on the greatest stage. These are the
baseball playoffs for 2008 and right now there is no better
show. Get on board because the show starts Wednesday night and Charlie's team is ready.

10-19-2008 @ 11:04AM

Go dobbs said...

I am going to game 5!!!!!! (if they make it) haha, so happy

ps - i love greg dobbs

10-21-2008 @ 8:26PM

Pam said...

It sounds as if people are writing the Phillies off before the World Series even starts!!! The Phillies have just as much talent as the Rays ...and more experience...and MOST importantly "REAL FANS".....not "LivingRoom" fans!!! Ever hear of "The Playoffs are a whole new game"..Well....Maybe all this Negative talk will motivate the team even more..to quiet alot of people ..I'll be at Game 3....I am a season ticket holder..Have been thru thick and thin..I love baseball..And I stand behind this 2008 team..They do magnificent things..The pitching, fielding,and batting..Some games are better than others..The outcome of this series depends on who happens to play their best game this week..Phillies fans..see you on Broad St....Turn on your TV's again Tampa!!!