Personal history and numbers don't always guide on-field performance, but they can give us a quick insight into who carries the advantage -- if ever so slight -- into a particular game. Tale O' Tape breaks down the starting pitchers to find an edge.Facing a 2-1 deficit and Cole Hamels waiting in the wings to pitch Game 5 on Monday, the Rays are facing a dicey situation tonight. Win this game, or their Cinderella run is going to be dangerously close to ending. The Phillies, meanwhile, have a chance to take a stranglehold on this series, and they're still playing to try and keep this World Series from returning to Tropicana Field.
The Phils are in this position because they managed to split the two games that the Rays had a decided pitching edge in. Tonight, with Joe Blanton and Andy Sonnanstine on the mound, things are more even. So who's got the edge coming in to Game 3?
Joe Blanton
Home splits: Blanton only made seven starts in Citizen's Bell this year, with none of them coming in the postseason. He's pitched fairly well in those seven starts, posting a 3.55 ERA in 38 innings, compared with a 4.69 ERA on the year. Of course, all kinds of sample size caveats apply here, especially because Blanton's flyball rate with the Phils went way up and that's a recipe for disaster in a park like Citizen's Bank.
Relevant history: Hey, hey! We have someone who's faced the other team this year! Blanton started against the Rays as a member of the A's back on May 19th in Oakland. He gave up four runs in his six innings, including a home run to Eric Hinske and doubles to Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, and Hinske. In the playoffs he's made two starts. He struck out seven in six innings against the Brewers in the NLDS clincher and then looked considerably worse in his start in Game 4 of the NLCS, where he walked four batters and gave up seven hits in five innings.
Andy Sonnanstine
Road splits: Sonnanstine has been about the same both in and out of Tropicana Field this year, though he's probably been a little better on the road. His ERA on the road is 4.35, compared to 4.40 at home. His home WHIP is 1.37, his road WHIP is 1.21. The difference in WHIP is mostly due to a lower walk rate on the road. Like Matt Garza last night, though, it's worth noting that Sonnanstine gave up 13 of his 21 homers on the road this year and his groundball percentage is almost the same as Garza's, meaning that keeping the ball in the park tonight might be a problem for him.
Relevant history: He's never faced the Phils, but he has won both of his playoff starts this year. Like Blanton, he won the Division Series clincher for the Rays and then turned in a solid start against the Red Sox in Game 4 of the ALCS, going 7 1/3 strong innings and holding the Red Sox to six hits in the 13-4 route.
The Edge
I think this is probably the hardest match-up to find an edge. Sonnanstine certainly had the better season and he's pitched very well in the playoffs, but Blanton closed the season out strong and hasn't pitched poorly in the playoffs. In the end, both of these guys are what they are; back-of-the-rotation guys who are capable of keeping their respective teams in the game, but aren't likely to go out and win the game by themselves. There's more pressure on Sonnanstine tonight, as this game is as must-win as non-elimination games go, but Blanton looked pretty shaky in his last start against the Dodgers.
On the whole, Sonnanstine's numbers were better over the season while spending the whole year in the tougher league and he's been better in the playoffs against tougher opponents, so Andy Sonnanstine and the Rays get the slight edge tonight. Still, just about anything can happen with these two on the mound in Philly's small park.
