Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2009.
After falling just short of the World Series in 2007, the Indians entered 2008 with lofty expectations. Thanks to a combination of down years from and injuries to players who made significant contributions to the 96-win team of 2007, Cleveland fell well short of those expectations, needing a late-season surge just to finish at .500.
There is some reason for optimism, however. Despite the injuries and trades, the Indians outscored their opponents by 44 runs, not far behind division leaders Chicago (plus-81) and Minnesota (plus-85). If some of the guys that struggled in '08 bounce back and the front office plugs some of the holes one the roster, there's no reason to think the Tribe couldn't compete in the Central in '09.
Who may leave?
C Sal Fasano (free agent)
What do they need?
Cleveland's free agent list would've been a lot longer if you compiled it back in April, but the Indians got rid of nearly all of their impending free agents after falling out of contention. CC Sabathia, Casey Blake, and Paul Byrd were all traded away to contenders, and Joe Borowski was released in July. So although they can bring back almost everyone who was on the roster after the deadline, there is work to do.
Aside from Cliff Lee, there are a lot of question marks in the rotation. After a great 2007, Fausto Carmona had serious control problems both before and after going on the DL, with 70 walks in 120.2 innings. After that, they really just have a collection of No. 5 starters, with Jeremy Sowers, Anthony Reyes, and Scott Lewis leading the way. Jake Westbrook is expected to return from Tommy John surgery around midseason, but relying on a big contribution from him in 2009 would probably be a mistake.
The Indians' bullpen continued its pattern of alternating between being brilliant and awful on an annual basis. The 2008 season fell into the latter category as Cleveland was second to last in the AL with a 5.13 bullpen ERA. They could continue to use Jensen Lewis in the ninth inning, a role he found success in over the last two months of the season. Or they could go out and sign a "proven" closer, shifting everyone else back an inning.
The production Cleveland has gotten from its corner outfielders has been lacking for the past few years, although Shin-Soo Choo's emergence in the season's last four months was a very pleasant surprise. Still, that only solves half the problem, so they may want to pursue another corner bat. There is also a hole somewhere in the infield, depending on what defensive alignment they choose. Currently the vacancy is at third base, as Blake is gone and Andy Marte doesn't look to be the answer. But they could elect to move SS Jhonny Peralta to third, and 2B Asdrubal Cabrera -- a fantastic defender -- to short, creating an opening at second.
What should they do?
The Indians don't have the money to sign a top starter like Sabathia (which is why they traded him in the first place), or Derek Lowe. But that doesn't mean they can't add an excellent starting pitcher. Randy Johnson would come at a price, and the 45-year-old is far from a sure thing, but he won't necessitate a long-term commitment, and he actually had fantastic peripherals (173:44 K:BB ratio in 184 innings) despite a rather pedestrian 3.91 ERA. He's also just five wins away from 300, so he might even cause some additional attendance revenues as he approaches that milestone.
Despite the ugly 2008 ERA, the bullpen isn't in terrible shape. Lewis and Rafael Perez were very good, and Rafael Betancourt should have an ERA significantly lower than last year's 5.07 mark, which was almost four runs higher than his '07 ERA. They certainly don't need to go out and give a ton of money to a big name closer like Francisco Rodriguez, but they could benefit from a move that would garner less attention, similar to last winter's signing of Masahide Kobayashi. Someone like Jeremy Affeldt could be a nice pickup, but if his price tag is too high they really don't need to make any huge changes in the 'pen.
The corner outfield hole could be filled internally, as Matt LaPorta, acquired from the Brewers in the Sabathia trade, could be promoted to the big club early in the year. It's not clear how long LaPorta will remain in the outfield -- he's pretty bad defensively -- but they might as well give it a shot, if only because that's where he fits in at the moment. Which leaves only the hole at second/third. The free agent crop at those two positions is incredibly weak, with Casey Blake somewhat pathetically leading the way. In an ideal world, they could try to pry Adrian Beltre, who has one year and $12MM remaining on his contract, from the Mariners. In reality though, the Indians probably wouldn't have enough to offer Seattle, as their farm system isn't very strong and their biggest strength -- a surplus of catchers -- isn't a match with the Mariners, who extended Kenji Johjima through 2011 and also have Jeff Clement.
What will they do?
Bringing Johnson aboard seems unlikely. They could be in the mix for Affeldt, although there will probably be some stiff competition for his services. GM Mark Shapiro may look to take advantage of the organization's strength at catcher--they have both Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach at the big league level, and top prospect Carlos Santana a couple years away--by cashing in on Shoppach's big year, although it's not clear what they would fetch in return.
There has also been some talk of signing Casey Blake, which would make some sense, since he could play not only third but also either corner OF spot. In the end, it will probably be another relatively quiet offseason in Cleveland. That was the case last year, and obviously that didn't really work out. But their '08 struggles were mostly caused by injuries that would've been impossible to play for, rather than mistakes made by the front office.
In the end, a team with the Indians' resources is rarely going to make a big splash in free agency. And that's probably the right move, even if you end up looking bad when things don't work out.
