Footprints in the Snow: Toronto Blue Jays

Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2009.

We're coming up on that crossroads season for the Blue Jays. For years they've had a team that, in the prism of the AL East, was merely OK. And each year they were also the team that was expected to break that Red Sox/Yankees stronghold on the division. But those two teams were also the built-in excuse for the Jays when they didn't break through. They have been pretty consistent with their win total over the last 10 seasons (in the 80s every season except for two), but it was never good enough to approach the upper echelon. "Well, the Red Sox and Yankees are in the pantheon of baseball ... who's going to beat them?"

Umm, it was the Rays. And now that the Rays have busted through, the pressure is on the Jays to finally kick this franchise into another gear and make their move. There's no reason to think they can't do it, as the club went 51-37 after replacing John Gibbons with Cito Gaston as manager ... a pace that would have placed them just a hair short of the Sox for the wild card. That's a significant stride, but not enough to be a playoff team quite yet. And with the imminent departure of A.J. Burnett, there will be some work to do to get there.
Who may leave:
SP A.J. Burnett (opted out of contract)
SP John Parrish (free agent)
RF Brad Wilkerson (free agent)

What do they need?
One strength that is overlooked because of the Jays' eternal mediocrity is that their pitching staff last season had the best ERA in the AL, along with the second most strikeouts in the league (one behind Boston), and the second best opponents batting average. Those stats were chiseled on the back of their starting pitching, most notably Roy Halladay (20-11, 2.78 ERA), and Burnett (18-10, 231 K's in 221.3 IP). With Burnett most likely gone, the Jays will need a two-hole starter to help Halladay, and keep guys like Jesse Litsch in the lower end of the rotation. They may even need a back end starter with Shawn Marcum out for all of 2009 and Dustin McGowan sidelined for at least a part of it.

What the Jays really need is some stability, not to mention some oomph, in their lineup. The Jays were near the bottom of the AL in most offensive categories, only consistently finishing ahead of Kansas City, Seattle, and Oakland. Lyle Overbay played in 158 games, Alex Rios played in 155, and Marco Scutaro played in 145 (split very evenly between three positions for the most part). Other than that, no position player played in more than 115 games due to injuries and trades. Oddly enough, those 115 games belong to Scott Rolen. To rub salt in that wound, the man he was traded for (Troy Glaus) played in 151 and easily surpassed Rolen numbers-wise. The most common Blue Jay lineup in 2008 was only together for seven games. When you compare that to the most common lineup for the Phillies (26 games), it underscores the excellent juggling job done by Gaston last season. It also underscores the need for a few more hitters that you can count on every game.

What should they do?
The pitching answer would be to bring Burnett back. But the very fact that he's opted out of his contract tells me that his offseason footprints are leading him out of Toronto. CC Sabathia would be predictably awesome as he would be for anybody, but probably out of the Jays' price range (and Canada is a long way from Sabathia's preferred West Coast destination). A trade for Javier Vazquez wouldn't be out of the discussion, and Brad Penny is now out there. But the Jays' focus should be on durability and health (more on that later), so Penny should be off the board in Toronto (and that would seemingly eliminate Ben Sheets). Oliver Perez would be an interesting thought here, now that he's seemingly found his rhythm in the last half of the season under the tutelage of pitching coach Dan Warthen. Randy Wolf would work as a back-end starter.

There has been talk about the Jays having interest in Manny Ramirez, and it will be interesting to see how serious they are about bringing Manny north. He'd certainly be the game changer that the Jays need in that lineup. And even though he had his injury concerns in '06 and '07, he did play in 153 games in 2008, and would provide an offensive jump to guys like Rios and Overbay (no matter what Jeff Kent might think). Toronto would be that perfect place for Manny to cause a buzz yet blend into the city at the same time. Unfortunately, Los Angeles is an even more perfect place, so Ramirez in Toronto is only a remote possibility. But if you're a Blue Jay fan, you have to hope that the Jays are serious in their pursuit of Ramirez and not just on the periphery.

But if it's a Type A free agent for left field that the Jays are after, why not a guy who's eight years younger? Why not Adam Dunn?

Oh yeah, that's why.

What will they do?
Seeing that Ramirez might be a pipe dream and that Dunn would probably rather sink all of his money in the stock market than play for J.P. Ricciardi, the other position I can see them upgrading is perhaps the middle infield. Felipe Lopez could be a possible inexpensive upgrade over Joe Inglett, but Lopez doesn't represent a significant upgrade if you go by last season's numbers. A guy like Edgar Renteria or perhaps even Orlando Cabrera could be possibilities at shortstop if they want to make Scutaro more of a utility player. While both of those players are Type A free agents, Rafael Furcal's an interesting name because he's not a Type A, and we know the type of impact he could have at the top of the order (the key again being: when healthy). Lopez would probably be the signing here if they feel that he will pan out better than Inglett. And there's always Jason Giambi (linked to the Jays in the past) to shore up their DH position. But with a Giambi/Oakland reunion gaining steam, that might not be possible either.

In this crossroad season for Toronto, it's time to show the type of commitment they have. If their move isn't made now, the Rays, Yanks, and Sox may make sure that there will never be a move. So I guess ... it's ... now or never.