Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2009.Meet the new Rays. Tampa Bay's ascent to the top of the American League has robbed the Eastern division of its perennial doormat, but there's someone new on the block to push around -- the Orioles. It's now been 11 seasons since Baltimore qualified for the playoffs or even had a winning record, and that dubious run will likely be extended in 2009.
But it's not all doom and gloom in the Charm City. In fact, in a little more than a year Andy MacPhail -- seemingly free from the tinkering and meddling of owner Peter Angelos -- finally has the Orioles pointed in the right direction. In any other division, you know one that doesn't have four teams with 80-plus wins already in it, the O's might have even been within shouting distance of the .500 mark this year.
There is little hope of contending in the immediate future in Baltimore, but the organization's recent mistakes have almost all been caused by thinking that there was a quick fix somewhere out there. The Orioles have a rapidly improving farm system and they're not that far from being a real factor, but in order to get there, they're going to need to stay on the track MacPhail has started them down.
Who May Leave?
Juan Castro, SS, free agent
Alex Cintron, SS, free agent
Kevin Millar, 1B, free agent
Jay Payton, OF, free agent
Brian Roberts, 2B, possible trade
Ramon Hernandez, C, possible trade
Daniel Cabrera, SP, possible non-tender
What Do They Need?
The Orioles' problems in the last decade have, for the most part, begun and ended with starting pitching and 2008 was no exception. Baltimore was 42-40 on June 30 of this year. It went 26-53 the rest of the way, and most of that can be pinned on the utter collapse of its pitching staff. O's pitchers put up ERAs of 6.06, 6.20 and 5.90 in July, August and September, respectively.
Jeremy Guthrie is the only pitcher with a lock on a rotation spot heading into 2009, so finding several other reliable starters for the next few seasons is of paramount importance. Of course, every team needs bullpen help, but for a club that sunk countless millions into relievers like Danys Baez, Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford in recent seasons, it seems unlikely that spending more on the bullpen will be a high priority.
Infield help will also be on the agenda this winter. MacPhail wisely traded Miguel Tejada last winter, but that created a revolving door of unappetizing shortstop options in 2008. The O's will certainly be looking for something steadier there, and they'll be in the market for a power bat at first base or designated hitter with Kevin Millar on the way out.
What Should They Do?
First things first, locking up right fielder Nick Markakis long-term should be priority No. 1. He's going to be a star.For once, there's some serious starting pitching depth on the free agent market, so the Orioles should wade cautiously into talks with some of the premium arms out there. A.J. Burnett, who resides in Maryland during the offseason, seems like a logical fit and will command a contract that would potentially keep him in Baltimore for a revival.
The O's should also monitor some of the other non-Sabathia options in the second tier of the pitching market like Oliver Perez and Ben Sheets. All three of those pitchers have durability and reliability issues to varying degrees, but they also have higher ceilings than most of the other options out there. The Jon Garlands and Paul Byrds of the world might be steadier, but they'll come at a steep cost and will do nothing to change Baltimore's fortunes. If they can walk away with Burnett or Perez, the winter will be a success on the pitching front.
The O's have no choice but to go outside of the organization to find a shortstop, but with such a shaky pitching staff, defense should be the primary concern. (Look at what the Rays were able to do by adding Jason Bartlett in a trade). Rafael Furcal would be ideal, but will probably price himself out of Baltimore's range. Orlando Cabrera isn't quite the gloveman he once was, but he's still a solid defender, and, with his reputation taking a bit of a hit this season, he could be had on a reasonable two or three-year deal.
The only other potential moves the Orioles should consider are trading a couple of veterans -- namely Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff and Ramon Hernandez. Huff figures to have more value next July when there are fewer corner bats readily available. Hernandez should be moved sooner rather than later to open a spot for uber-prospect Matt Wieters. Roberts will be the toughest call of all. He's probably the face of the franchise at this point and he's one of the best second baseman in baseball, but he'll be a free agent next winter and could fetch a nice package of talent in a trade. Baltimore should jump at the chance to move him for young infield help or starting pitching and keep their eyes on the prize -- respectability by 2010 and contention by 2011 or 2012.
What Will They Do?
The Orioles figure to get a deal done with Markakis. The feeling here is that they'll hold on to Roberts as well and explore an extension with him, particularly since he seems to be a favorite of Peter Angelos'. They need a shortstop and Cabrera figures to be on the list, but Cesar Izturis is the type of gloveman the Orioles figure to value. He won't hit much, but he will come very cheaply and should tighten up the infield defense until a more suitable long-term option comes along.
They'll push hard for Burnett, but ultimately lose out on him and settle for a lesser pitching option like Garland. The veteran Hernandez will stay on, at least to start the season, to push the talented Wieters.The team is under some pressure to pursue local product Mark Teixeira. Even if MacPhail does decide to join the bidding war, it's hard to see him and the Orioles luring the slugging first baseman. Teixeira will probably want to play for a proven winner and, as a Scott Boras client, will most certainly go to whichever serious contender offers him the most money. Unless Baltimore plans to blow the other Teixeira suitors out of the water, it won't be able to bring him home.
Besides bolstering the rotation, the Orioles probably won't make much of a dent in the free agent market, instead focusing on collecting prospects and cost-controlled talent. The only big-name transactions they figure to be associated with will involve big names going out of Baltimore. That's as it should be for a club building toward serious contention in the next decade, not in this one.
