Footprints in the Snow: Florida Marlins

Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2009.

When the Marlins dealt Miguel Cabrera last winter, it was assumed that they would battle the Nationals for the cellar in the National League East. That made their 84-77 record one of the most pleasant surprises of the season.

Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla led an offense that finished second in the NL in home runs, the preferred method of scoring for an offense that didn't get on base with much regularity. Chris Volstad looked like a future ace in 14 starts. Volstad, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson and Andrew Miller are a very young rotation, but potentially a very good one if they're healthy and consistent in 2009.

Almost any team would envy the young, talented roster the Marlins possess, but building on their 2008 successes will be contingent on which players return next season. As always, the Marlins are dealing with monetary issues that often trump diamond ones. How they manage those two sides will decide how far they go next season.

Who's leaving?
Mike Jacobs, Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham have already departed via trade. Four Marlins - Luis Gonzalez, Mark Hendrickson, Paul Lo Duca and Arthur Rhodes - are free agents, and it would be surprising if any of them returned to Miami next season.

What do they need?
More than anything else, the Marlins need a new stadium and a healthy fanbase. Almost every decision they make is financially motivated. Given how successful the team was in 2008, a chance to make moves that are solely focused on the roster, instead of considering the balance sheet, would give them a serious chance to contend for the postseason in 2009. They have 12 players eligible for salary arbitration, 15 before the Jacobs and Olsen/Willingham trades, and cost control will be a major factor in how they assemble their roster.

On the field, the biggest need position is catcher, while improving their defense should also be a priority. The team can't go through the season with Matt Treanor as the everyday backstop. The defense should be better by virtue of Cameron Maybin playing every day and the departure of Jacobs, but Jorge Cantu, Uggla and Ramirez are all iffy with the glove. That young rotation needs a sound defense behind it to succeed, just ask the other Florida big league team how that works out.


What should they do?
It's silly to make any grandiose plans for the Marlins because of their budgetary concerns. It's even sillier to say "they should spend more money" as that's neither a prudent nor likely scenario. They need to figure out which of the arbitration-eligible players are worth their money, and maximize return on trades for the others. They didn't do that with the Olsen deal and can't make that mistake again. Of that group, they should absolutely retain Nolasco and Johnson for the rotation and keep Cantu because he can play first, second or third. They should shop Uggla, without the urgency of having to trade him, but with the knowledge that he could bring back the kind of prospects that will keep the system florid.

Otherwise, they should hand Maybin and Volstad the keys to the Opening Day roster and just let them go from there. Both could team with Ramirez to form the nucleus of the next great Marlin team. A reasonably priced veteran starter, Freddy Garcia or Paul Byrd come to mind, might be a nice addition for the back end of a young rotation as well. In any trade, be it for Uggla, Kevin Gregg or Jeremy Hermida, they must get a majors-ready catcher in return and a good glove at second or third who can also hit would be a nifty pickup.

What will they do?
They'll trade Uggla if they get bowled over by an offer. Yes, they've dealt away a lot of power, but Uggla's going to start getting expensive and, based on the rest of the team, will be much too pricey to keep when everything's gelled. Dealing him now gets you closer to that point without sacrificing too many wins in 2009. Getting Emilio Bonifacio in the Olsen/Willingham deal gives them an option at second base, albeit a sub-par one.

They will almost certainly trade Gregg, and replace him at closer with Matt Lindstrom. They'll round out the bullpen with holdovers and modest acquisitions like the ones they already made, i.e. Leo Nunez (the Jacobs trade) and Dan Meyer (waivers).

In the end, it will be the same old song for the Marlins, a couple of steps backward because of money with the potential for big leaps forward because of the prospects acquired in trades. Their track record says they'll uncover a diamond in the rough or two, but until they can afford to truly build long-term, instead of developing players who spend their primes elsewhere, they will be stuck in the 75-85 win range unless a lot of things break right all at once.