Footprints in the Snow: Milwaukee Brewers

Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2009.

It's hard to think of a team that's been on more of a rollercoaster than the Milwaukee Brewers have the past five months. In June, they acquired CC Sabathia and started steamrolling towards what looked like a certain playoff berth. In September, they collapsed and nearly lost what looked like a sure wild-card berth. Then they fired Ned Yost and slid into the playoffs anyways. In October, they were knocked out by the eventual world champion Phillies. Now they've hired Ken Macha and Willie Randolph, but CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets have filed for free agency.

Of course, the important thing for the Brewers and their fans to remember is that they're going to be in good shape next year, even without Sheets and Sabathia. They've still got a great offense, they've still got Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra, and hey, Eric Gagne's gone! They're going to be a different team next year, yes. But that doesn't mean they're going to be worse.

Who's leaving:
Ray Durham, 2B
Craig Counsell, SS (Brewers declined his option)
CC Sabathia, SP
Ben Sheets, SP
Guillermo Mota, RP
Eric Gagne, RP
Brian Shouse, RP
Salomon Torres, RP (the Brewers have an option on him and haven't decided what to do yet)

What do they need?
This one's easy. They need pitching, pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Their starting lineup will be unchanged next year and with young players like Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, and Corey Hart making up such a large contingent for them, it's a good bet that they're going to score more runs than the 750 that they scored in 2008. Durham and Counsell were both bit players last year and they should be easily replaced.

On the flip side of things, they really rode Sabathia's arm to the playoffs this year. It's hard to replace a guy that's arguably been the best lefty in baseball the last two seasons. Still, their pitching problems go beyond just losing Sabathia. Their rotation is awfully thin behind Gallardo, Parra, and Dave Bush and the guys you see on that list above, namely Mota, Shouse, and Torres, made up a big part of their bullpen in 2008.

What should they do?
They're focused right now on trying to keep Sabathia in Milwaukee and I think that's a good idea, even though it's an incredibly long shot. Keeping him in the rotation immediately solves one problem that I'm not sure they can fix otherwise, and it gives them the ace that they wanted Ben Sheets to be for years. They shouldn't overpay for him though. They have some money in the coffers and they drew 3,000,000 fans last year, but they're still a small market team operating within a budget. I think they can afford Sabathia for $100 million over four years, but going beyond that is unwise for them.

If we assume they can't sign Sabathia, though, they should be in the market for a pretty decent starting pitcher and they can afford it with Sheets and Sabathia coming off the books. If I were them, I'd be most interested in a Jon Garland or Derek Lowe. Those guys can't replace the performance of the two departed pitchers, but they can both be 200 inning anchors in a rotation that has some young guys at the top and some real question marks (that's you, Jeff Suppan) at the bottom. Beyond them, the bullpen needs some heavy rebuilding, but they can likely keep one or two of his guys and plug in from the free pool beyond that.

What will they do?
Doug Melvin is a good GM and he's done a great job putting Milwaukee back on track since he took over, so I don't expect him to go too far off the beaten path here. He seems to be playing his cards pretty close to the vest beyond making an offer to Sabathia, but that's par for the course. Right now they seem willing to let Sheets go and are making an offer to Sabathia, while trying to decide between Mota and Torres. I'm going to guess they can't sign Sabathia and will end up choosing Torres. So where do they go from there?

The one point that Melvin may deviate from the course that I laid out above is in the pitching he signs. He certainly may push for guys like Lowe and Garland, but he likes the big risk/big reward move as much as anyone (see: the Gagne signing last winter, the Sabathia trade). If he's going to do something like that this winter, it might be in signing someone like Carl Pavano or Oliver Perez, who come loaded with both question marks and the sort of talent that could really help ease the losses of Sabathia and Sheets. If they don't flame out spectacularly.

Of course all of this is just speculation at this point, but the most important thing to remember is that the Brewers are not going to be sitting on their hands this winter, no matter what they do.