Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2009.
The Tigers were the most disappointing team in the majors last year. A preseason pick for the World Series by many, they finished dead last in the AL Central, thanks mostly to a pitching staff that ranked 27th out of 30 teams and a defense that committed the second most errors in the league.
Only the Yankees and Mets spent more money last year, and the Tigers don't have nearly the revenue stream of their Big Apple counterparts. As such, GM Dave Dombrowski is expected to slash and burn the payroll this winter. Can he bring the Tigers back into contention without draining owner Mike Ilitch's pockets? He's facing an uphill battle, for sure, especially considering duds like Dontrelle Willis, Gary Sheffield and Nate Robertson will cost the team $33 million alone.
Who's leaving?Todd Jones announced his retirement, which is good news for Tigers fans and bad news for companies that make ulcer medication. The Tigers declined Edgar Renteria's $12 million option, but only after the Braves refused to give Dombrowski a mulligan on trading Jair Jurrjens for him. Freddy Garcia filed for free agency, but he made all of three starts for the Tigers. Kenny Rogers filed for free agency, and considering he posted a 7.93 ERA after the All-Star break, here's to hoping he knows when to fold them, knows when to walk away. Kyle Farnsworth, Casey Fossum and Vance Wilson are also free agents.
What do they need?
In a word: pitching. In three words: lots of pitching. Unheralded rookie Armando Galarraga was by far the team's best starting pitcher last year (13-7 record, 3.73 ERA), and there's a good chance he might come crashing back to earth in 2009. On the bright side, you have to imagine Justin Verlander will bounce back, and having a healthy Jeremy Bonderman available (which isn't guaranteed to happen) will help immensely. But can Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis be salvaged? And if not, who will replace them?
The bullpen is a complete mess, as well. Jones is gone, but Fernando Rodney isn't consistent enough to be reliable setup man, let alone a closer. Joel Zumaya has the stuff and mentality to close but can't stay healthy for any stretch of time. And who's to say this team will have a lead to protect in the ninth inning, anways? Finding reliable middle relief should be just as much of a priority, especially considering the number of times this team had to pull a starter early.
What should they do?
If the Tigers were owned by a guy named "Wilpon" or "Steinbrenner" instead of "Ilitch," the solution would be to pay hand over foot to sign guys like CC Sabathia, Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes. Instead, the Tigers will probably have to trade their way out of the basement instead of relying on free agency.
There's been some rumblings that Magglio Ordonez might be on the block. It's hard to trade a player of his caliber and tell your fans with a straight face that you're still trying to compete, but moving him now makes sense: it'd help the Tigers save money and it'd bring back at least a couple of blue chip prospects. Plus, the Tigers could begin to make up for his absence by signing Rafael Furcal to a short, incentive-laden deal and bumping Curtis Granderson from leadoff to the middle of the lineup. The rotation needs help, but signing one of the top-tier aces on the market is out of the question. Derek Lowe is looking for his last big payday, and the Dearborn, Mich. native might be he might be persuaded to finish his career with his old hometown team. Making a play for J.J. Putz, another Michigan native, also makes sense.
What will they do?
If Dombrowski isn't confident he can improve the pitching staff enough to get this team back in contention, it's a waste to have a guy like Ordonez in his prime driving in runs for a losing team. Don't be surprised at all if he's dealt.
The bounty they receive for trading Maggs will determine the rest of their moves. Unless Dombrowski honestly thinks the Tigers have a chance to compete this year, the team will probably pass on a high-profile pitching acquisition, instead settling on a lower-tier free agent (Jon Garland?) and waiting on future ace Rick Porcello to develop. The bullpen is too much of a mess for Dombrowski to ignore, but again, don't hold your breath on a stud closer like K-Rod. Instead, think Kevin Gregg or David Weathers.
