Footprints in the Snow: St. Louis Cardinals

Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2009.

Strangely, the Cardinals improved in just about every facet in 2008, winning eight more games than they did in 2007, and in the end finished further down in the division and more games out of the playoffs then they did in 2007. They pitched better in 2008, they got a better year from Albert Pujols in 2008 and Ryan Ludwick broke out in a way that no one saw coming. And still, the gap between them and the top of the division seemed to grow this year.

That leaves the Cardinals in an interesting place this winter. They were decent in a lot of places last year, but they excelled in very few. So what do they need to improve to contend? How can they do that? These questions are likely not as easily answered as they might appear at first glance. It's clear that St. Louis is going to be active this offseason, as they were involved in the Matt Holliday bidding, but can they do what they need to get back on top?

Who May Leave?
Braden Looper, SP
Ron Villone, RP
Russ Springer, RP
Jason Isringhausen, RP
Cesar Izturis, SS
Felipe Lopez, INF
Juan Encarnacion, OF
Mark Mulder, SP

What Do They Need?
The Cardinals had two real sources of weakness last year. One was their middle infield, where Izturis and Adam Kennedy provided no offense and Aaron Miles was only a little better after replacing Kennedy as the second baseman. Izturis is filing for free agency and the Cardinals will do well to keep his OPS+ of 64 away from Busch Stadium. Beyond the middle infield positions, though, every other regular starter an an above average OPS except for Yadier Molina, who came in with an OPS+ of 95.

The other main problem the Cards had last year was their rotation. Dave Duncan did as good a job as possible holding a patchwork group of guys together, but they really struggled to fill the back of the rotation when Adam Wainwright was hurt. Guys like Joel Piniero and Brad Thompson just aren't the answer here. Now Wainwright is healthy, but Chris Carpenter is looking at potential career-ending surgery and Looper is a free agent. That leaves Todd Wellemeyer and Kyle Lohse, two guys that had career years and started strong, but dropped off towards the end of 2008.

What Should They Do?
They do have a surplus of outfielders with Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker, Colby Rasmus, and Chris Duncan (if healthy) all patrolling Busch Field. Depending on how ready they think Rasmus is and how healthy Duncan is, they can certainly trade Ludwick or Ankiel or maybe even both (which they're discussing). Trading one of those guys, especially Ludwick (who's at his peak value after his huge 2008 campaign) should net the pitching help the Cardinals need. If they can then find a shortstop that can hit a little, either by trading Ankiel or signing a free agent, they're going to be in good shape.

There are also concerns about the bullpen, but Chris Perez and Ryan Franklin looked pretty good towards the end of the year. If they can re-sign Springer they're probably only an arm or two away from having a 'pen that's certainly good enough to keep them in contention.

What Will They Do?
They were pretty seriously interested in Matt Holliday, which seemed weird. Holliday is a very good player and all, but the last thing St. Louis needs is to plug another outfielder in and ignore their rotation and bullpen. Maybe it was just a case of GM John Mozeliak taking a stab at one of the better players available this winter. It is, after all, pointless to criticize a GM for a trade he doesn't make. He's said he's willing to listen to offers on Ankiel and Ludwick and that's exactly what he should be doing.

I do think that it's possible that the Cards may put too much focus on rebuilding their bullpen. They went through a shaky span in the middle of the year (including blowing a six-run, seventh inning lead to the Pirates in July), but Perez and Franklin really stepped up down the stretch and I think that their 'pen is much less of an issue than people think it is. If the Cardinals are going to go out and spend big money on a free agent, I think they'd be much better served for that free agent to be Rafael Furcal than Trevor Hoffman. That would give them some leeway to trade a bat like Ludwick for a good starting pitcher.

The Cards won 86 games last year and hit their Pythagorean record right on the head. That means that while they can make a couple of moves and maybe catch up to the top of the division, they have to be the right moves. If they focus on the wrong things, they're going to find themselves in the same place in 2009 as they were in 2008.