Footprints in the Snow: Tampa Bay Rays

Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2009.

As you may have heard, the Tampa Bay Rays burst onto the scene in 2008, finishing the regular season with 97 wins, 27 more than their previous franchise high of 70. They then breezed past the White Sox in the ALDS and survived Boston's furious comeback in the ALCS before falling to the Phillies in the World Series.

On its face, Tampa's story may seem similar to that of the 2007 Rockies, who were an afterthought in the pennant race in early September yet ended up still playing in late October. But in reality, the surprise teams of the last two years couldn't be more different. While Colorado was led by guys in their late-20s having career years, the Rays were a very young team that came into its own earlier than expected. Nearly all of their key parts will be back for '09 and beyond; if Tampa Bay makes the right offseason moves, it is set up quite nicely for a potentially dominant 3-5 year run.

Who may leave?
OF Rocco Baldelli
OF Eric Hinske
DH Cliff Floyd
LHP Trever Miller

What do they need?
Not much. They basically only need to replace what they're losing, and those weren't their strengths to begin with. In the bullpen, Miller is a free agent, and October sensation David Price will move into the rotation. That leaves Tampa Bay with J.P. Howell as the only left-handed reliever.

The Rays certainly don't have a "need" in the rotation. Price will join Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza for a very impressive top four. That leaves one of 2008's back-end starters, Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson, as the odd man out; there's been speculation that one will be traded, with the focus being on Jackson. There is also more help from the minors on the way, with RHP Wade Davis, who should be ready at some point in '09, being the closest to the majors.

On offense, the most obvious holes are in right field and at DH. At the moment they have Gabe Gross in right, and Willy Aybar at DH; they will probably want to upgrade at least one of those positions, if not both. They don't have to worry about filling any other positions on the diamond for '09, but since they have so few needs, they might want to start looking toward the future. The first opening looks to be at second, where Aki Iwamura is signed though next year. The Rays hold a $4.25MM team option for 2010.

What should they do?
There's no shortage of left-handed relievers available this winter. Brian Fuentes tops the list, but the Rays aren't really looking for a "proven closer", and there's no reason for them to pay the price that comes with that label. Other options include Jeremy Affeldt, Dennys Reyes, Arthur Rhodes, and Brian Shouse. Affeldt is the best option there, but he'll probably also be the most expensive. Any of the other three would be acceptable options for a one-year deal. One guy I wouldn't go after is Joe Beimel, who had a nice ERA (2.02), but allowed 20 of 60 inherrited runners to score, and had just a 32:21 K:BB ratio.

There are a lot of good corner OF bats on the market; the problem is that they're all terrible defenders. The top five OF FAs are probably Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu and Raul Ibanez. All of those guys can hit, for sure, but none play a lick of defense. There is also Milton Bradley, who is more of a DH than an outfielder at this point. So it looks like the DH hole is going to be a lot easier to fill than RF.

Ramirez is obviously unrealistic. Bradley would be a nice DH option; the injuries are a concern, and he seems to have a screw loose, but both of those things will make him more affordable. And the guy can flat out hit, with a .302/.406/.517 line over the last three years. Dunn and Burrell are both more reliable and more expensive options; either would have to agree to move to DH, since both would be complete disasters in right. And Abreu or Ibanez would be fine for a year or two, but both are getting up there in age and probably won't hit enough to warrant a DH spot for very long.

Another interesting idea that has been floated would be to deal for Cardinals outfielder Ryan Ludwick. In one sense that's not ideal, as that would be buying high on Ludwick, who had a career year in '08. If the Cardinals are looking to deal him just for that reason, it's probably not something the Rays should go forward with, but at the right price Ludwick could be a very nice addition.

What will they do?
One thing that the Rays made very clear at the '08 trade deadline is that they're not going to force moves just because they vaulted into contention a year or two earlier than expected. Tampa Bay's front office is still very intent on sticking to their long-term plan, and for good reason. Even if they don't make a single move this winter, they already have enough talent on hand to contend in the AL East.

Doing nothing would obviously be a bit extreme, and I doubt that'll happen. The Rays will probably add a high-profile bat to their DH mix, and also make a couple minor moves, possibly adding one of the lefties mentioned above, and probably trading away one of their extra starters.