Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2009.As you could probably tell from the parade down Broad Street, everything came together for the Phillies in 2008. Cole Hamels made the leap from No. 1 starter to shutdown ace, Brad Lidge didn't blow a save from April to October and the big three in the lineup kept on churning until the Rays were dispatched and Philadelphia rejoiced for the first time in 25 years.
Hamels, Lidge, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley will all be in their familiar roles when next season opens. No matter what the Mets do, that nucleus should make the Phillies the favorites in the NL East, not to mention the two steps beyond that, before next season. That doesn't mean there isn't work to do.
You don't need to look any further than Pat Gillick's retirement and Ruben Amaro's ascension to general manager to see how little time there is to celebrate a title before thinking about next year. The Phillies don't need any wholesale changes, but they can't stand pat either. Like sharks, baseball teams need to keep moving or they'll die where they sit.
Who May Leave?
Pat Burrell (free agent)
Jamie Moyer (free agent)
What Do They Need?
They just won the World Series so there aren't any glaring holes. If Burrell and Moyer were to leave, the team would need to fill their spots in left field and the rotation, respectively. The biggest need, then, is to figure out whether those two will be back with the team next season. We'll get to the best approach on that front in a moment, but it wouldn't kill them to get a bit more athletic in the outfield nor would it be a bad idea to get a lefty bat who could spell Jayson Werth from time to time.
What Should They Do?
Burrell's free agency leaves the team in a bit of a tough spot. He slumped badly in the second half, is a poor defender in left and has already turned down a two-year, $22 million offer. The best free agent option, Manny Ramirez, is too expensive and a worse fielder, while the best trade target, Matt Holliday, is headed to Oakland already. So what else is out there? Magglio Ordonez or Jermaine Dye could be dealt this winter, but Ordonez is due $18 million next year and neither one makes the team a great deal more athletic. Rocco Baldelli is probably the free agent that best fits the team's needs, but his health concerns make him an iffy choice as an everyday corner outfielder. Given those choices, bringing Burrell back is their best move.
Moyer should be re-signed to a one-year deal with an option for 2010. He solidifies the rotation behind Hamels and Brett Myers and, with Joe Blanton, provides the team with a strong starter four nights of the week. The fifth night should be whoever performs best in the spring between Carlos Carrasco, J.A. Happ and Kyle Kendrick. There's no need to spend money there. They should also give Lou Marson every chance to make the team, either as a replacement or partner for catcher Carlos Ruiz.
What Will They Do?
Not too much. The Phils already have $63.25 million committed to next season, and that's before arbitration-eligible players like Hamels, Howard, Blanton, Werth and Ryan Madson get their money. The payroll was $104 million last year and while the Phillies will spend more, they won't go way above that. That may mean Burrell departs and is replaced on the cheap. They are spending a lot of money for Geoff Jenkins who, if he returns to any kind of form, could team with Baldelli, say, and Werth to man the corners.
They've already re-signed Scott Eyre, which means their strong bullpen will remain intact, and they'll likely bring Moyer back. That's not going to make for the sexiest offseason in baseball, but when you're getting a ring on Opening Day, it makes it much easier to go the conservative route.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-13-2008 @ 5:54PM
Jay Mullen said...
I have followed the Phillies since 3 weeks before coming out of the Womb. America was the Phillies before I actually moved here for good. So I have witnessed alot of the downs since 80. It was great to see the team excel this year. But Philadelphia Phans are tough of course and standing pat just won't cut it.
I love Pat 'The Bat' and have enjoyed him throughout all his slumps knowing that in key moments he can perform like no other. He also can carry a team for a while, but his fielding and speed are very difficult to overcome. I would have to recommend we let him leave though it breaks my heart. But Geoff Jenkins is no improvement. Jason Werth IS and could continue to grow now that his wrists issues are over. Though the strain of his obliques off a swing this year gives me pause as to his health stability. This is where the Phillies should aim to go for high value.
I agree Manny is too expensive but we can work trades with other teams looking to rebuild. We have a deep system. We need a person with power and range in LF.
And as for Jamie Moyer, he was great. But there is simply too much anxiety when he pitches. Alot like Brett Meyers. I consider those 2 risky rotation picks. Brett is all fire and a cool guy but he is too inconsistent. I would almost wrap him up in a trade for the LF.
But suppose the Team went for CC Sabathia.... That one move would make them the favorite in the NL and probably a WS Favorite for years to come if they kept the other core members. There roster salary would probably be close to 120 Million but I am sure they are receiving a nice pay in merchandising since win and it will continue if they continue.
They need to have an impacting off-season. Ruben needs to act aggressively (of course while maintaining a sence of chemistry -- I.e. No Barry Bonds types.)
Long live the Phillies :). I am very happy for them.
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11-15-2008 @ 8:51AM
steve said...
Pitching wins World Series, But hitting wins
division championships. With that said, Go for Manny.
With him and ryan, Can carry team all year.
Make room by giving up Pat.
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11-15-2008 @ 10:15AM
Jorge said...
Insightful bog on the Phillies' needs, but you and everyone is off-base with replacing Burrell. The Phillies, even though their core is home grown, are too conservative when promoting their minor league prospects, e.g. Utley, Howard, Happ, Ruiz, Victorino, etc. They have a 5 tooler that is ready, and you will hear a lot about him, if they give him a chance, Greg Golson. He's a natural center fielder with a strong arm and lots of speed. The outfield should be Werth in left, Golson in center and Victorino, the best right fielder in the game, in right. Marson has to get promoted because he's ready and can be mentored by Ruiz , a terrific defensive catcher. They have another terrific prospect that can make the jump and he is Jason Donald. He's tearing up the Arizona winter league with a 400 BA and a 696 slugging. Look for him to move to 3rd base. He could be their next home grown star.
If they don't sign Moyer, which I think is unlikely, Happ will fill the ticket. In the few starts he made this season, he pitched with the moxie of a vet.
The Phillies will be fine in 2009 and will be fightin again, no matter what the Mets do.
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11-17-2008 @ 3:07AM
Tom said...
i am so happy for our phils we finally did it and the mets still are a disgrace all the showboating they do and still a second place in the east im so happy. i think the phillies need to bring up golson and im reading alot about michael taylor in the minors with ryan howard power he needs to be given a real chance that being said i agree with jason donald he could be big if he works out at third i saw him in harrisburg he is real same as golson and marson i like what im seeing
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11-16-2008 @ 8:55PM
George said...
Let me just put it this way, in 1961 at Fort Dix NJ, a young man who had no clue about the Phillies--being an AL kid.
Thiskid beganlistening to the games onthe radio fromthe supply depot. that was it he was hooked..
46 years later ---------he still bleeds Phillies red. and wow talk about a PHANATIC!!!!
The kid was 39 when the PHOOEYS won their first Series.
now hes a worked over 67.
Any way, forget manny the fanny. he wont give us what we need and hell take the money and run.do you think hell play all 162 games for us or for him?
CC? Ha ha have you EVER HEARD the Phillies spendng th money he will get??? Yankees (ugh) already tossing him the key to Fort Knox.
I say bring back Pat, hes been with us his whole career.Unless we can find one hellava outfielder at Philly (prices ($1.99).
I really dont know the answer I do feel strongly about keeping Burrell.
Myers is the one who scares me----- when hes hot heaizzles but woo hoo he needs to fight to get out of the first inning and make sure his heads on straight.
thats my 2 cents worth
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