Footprints in the Snow: Cincinnati Reds

Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2009.

How many teams in baseball can match a young core of Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto? The Reds have four young players to build around right now that would make every other team in the league jealous. The problem they currently have is that none of the older guys around those young players, namely Brandon Phillips, Aaron Harang, Edwin Encarnacion, and Bronson Arroyo, have performed up to expectations recently.

The question that Cincy now must answer is when their team is going to be ready to contend. They weren't last year, and Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. were shipped off as a result. They're still a ways away right now, though if players like Cueto and Bruce can take steps forward this year, they might be closer to contending then people realize. So should they try to arm up for a run to the top of the Central this year? Or should they sit back and wait.


Who's leaving?
David Weathers, RP
Jeremy Affeldt, RP
Mike Lincoln, RP
Kent Mercker, RP
Jerry Hairson Jr., UTIL
Javier Valentin, C
Paul Bako, C
Corey Patterson, CF
Josh Fogg, SP

What do they need?
In an ironic twist of fate, the team that spent the earlier part of this decade with nothing but outfield talent is a bit short in the outfield now. Sure, Jay Bruce is out there, but things look awfully sparse behind him. There's Chris Dickerson, who killed the ball in the second half last year after his callup, but his minor league numbers aren't great and there's little indication he can replicate those numbers over the long term. After him, things are even bleaker. There's the injury-prone Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, and ... ? CincinnatiReds.com actually lists Bruce as the starter in both center and right at the moment. It's a bold strategy, but i'm not sure it's going to work.

The Reds also have a serious rotation problem behind Volzquez and Cueto right now. Both Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo dropped off sharply last year and Homer Bailey is nowhere near the prospect he was at this time of year two years ago. There's not really any pitching prospects close to being ready, either, which means that even if Bruce and Votto take big steps forward and Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnacion pick things up a bit, there's no guarantee that the Reds will be a good team next year because they may not be able to get anyone out.

What should they do?
This is where things get even trickier for Cincy. Is it time to cut bait on Bailey, pick up a young outfielder with a bat, and hope that Harang and Arroyo find their form again to make a run at the NL Central this year? Is it time to trade someone like Harang in the hopes that the system can be re-stacked before Bruce, Votto, Cueto, and Volquez's time in Cincinnati is up? Or is it time to give Bailey a real shot at the rotation and hope the offense matures enough to give their three young arms enough runs to contend?

My gut feeling is that this team isn't going to be ready in 2009, no matter what strings Jocketty tries to pull. They've got some talent coming up that should be ready in the next year or two in Drew Stubbs, Todd Frazier, and last year's first round pick Yonder Alonso. That means that for now at least, they need to focus on filing in the holes, hoping to build a core around the four young guys they already have with the other guys that are coming up.

What will they do?
Walt Jocketty doesn't really strike me as the kind of guy that's going to sit around for a year and try to rebuild. I don't think he wants to do that and I don't think he was hired to do anything but get this team into contention as fast as possible. For all intents and purposes, I think that means keep an eye on Bailey this offseason. Even if the Reds decide to rebuild, they may want to cut bait on Bailey now while he has any value at all. They're also looking to add some pop to the lineup in the form of an outfielder, so they may make a run at someone like Pat Burrell, if the market allows it.

The biggest thing to keep an eye on is their pool of minor league talent. The Reds have a bit of leeway if they want to contend this year, but selling the farm to make a run in 2009 probably isn't wise.