Footprints in the Snow is FanHouse's look at the paths to be forged by MLB teams this winter as they look ahead to 2009.The Mariners went into 2008 as playoff contenders in the eyes of some, and a sub-.500 team that wasn't going to be able to score enough runs to compete in the minds of others. The latter camp was closer in its expectation, but nobody could have foreseen just how far Seattle would fall.
The offense was bad, as expected, finishing 13th in the AL in runs, OBP, and SLG. The more surprising issue was that the pitching, a unit which looked to be solid at the outset of the year, fell apart as well. Offseason acquisition Erik Bedard and previously dominant closer J.J. Putz both battled injuries, and weren't particularly impressive when they did pitch. They also got some abysmal performances from the back end of the rotation, with Carlos Silva, Ryan Feierabend and Miguel Batista combining for a 6.55 ERA in 308 innings.
It's worth noting that all the blame for the run prevention issues shouldn't fall solely to the pitchers, as the Mariners were 13th in the AL in defensive efficiency.
Who May Leave?
OF Raul Ibanez
UT Willie Bloomquist
IF Miguel Cairo
What Do They Need?
Guys who can hit. Seattle got above average offensive production from just one position last year, and they're losing that guy (Ibanez) to free agency. Jeremy Reed will get a shot in center, and Ichiro Suzuki isn't going anywhere. They also recently inked catcher Kenji Johjima to deal that extends through 2011; that wasn't a particularly good idea, but it does mean the Mariners won't be looking for a new starting backstop anytime soon.
Adrian Beltre is the third baseman for now, but he'll either be dealt some time in the next eight months, or hit the market a year from now. Regardless, Seattle needs a long-term solution at third. More immediate needs include a replacement for Ibanez in left, a first baseman (althought Jeff Clement could step in there), and a DH who can improve on Jose Vidro's .234/.274/.338 line.
The rotation is actually in decent shape. Felix Hernandez remains at the top; it seems like he's been around forever, but "King Felix" won't turn 23 until after Opening Day. If Bedard is healthy, he is certainly a capable No. 2 starter, although he'll be eligible for free agency next winter. Brandon Morrow came on strong after being converted from the bullpen into the rotation; he'll step in at the No. 3. At the back end, Carlos Silva won't justify his contract, but he should see his results improve significantly after an unlucky '08, and either Ryan Rowland-Smith or Jarrod Washburn will man the fifth spot.
What Should They Do?
Seattle isn't in a position to throw a lot of money around this offseason, which is good, since they don't have much to spend. They should make some minor moves, maybe fill a couple of the previously mentioned holes, although some can be filled by guys already in the organization.
More importantly, the Mariners need to focus on 2010 and beyond. They have two main chips they should look to cash in, in Beltre and Bedard. The one they should focus on this winter is Beltre. He may never have repeated his brilliant 2004 in a Seattle uniform, but that doesn't mean he's not very valuable; his bat may only be average at this stage, but he's one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball. If the Mariners can match up with a team that can see past the somewhat disappointing defensive numbers, they could get a solid package in return and speed up the rebuilding process.
Because of his struggles this past season, they should probably wait on Bedard. Just let him pitch (and hope he's able to pitch) for the first half of the season, and hope he just approaches his '07 level. If they can build his value back up, they could really start a bidding war at the trade deadline. Getting a good return for those two players, and possibly trying to get rid of some guys with unfortunate contracts like Silva and Washburn, should be one of the main focuses in the coming months.
What will they do?
New GM Jack Zduriencik has an extensive (and successful) history in scouting, but what he does in his new position is really anyone's guess. He'll no doubt be an improvement over Bill Bavasi, but it's still unclear how much Seattle will rely on sabermetrics, which it has seemingly ignored in recent years. A big splash in free agency seems unlikely, but it will be very interesting to see who Zduriencik surrounds himself with (they also need to hire a new manager), and how he manages the roster to try to speed up the rebuilding process before what figures to be another trying season.
