The Yankees Are Scared of Ben Sheets

Once upon a time, it would've been silly to question Ben Sheets' durability: he averaged 34 starts and 224 innings for three straight years beginning in 2002. Unfortunately that's when the wheels fell off, as he averaged 21 starts and 134 innings from 2005-07.

He seemed to turn the corner in 2008 with 31 starts and 198 innings, but a torn muscle in his pitching elbow sidelined him late in the year and in the playoffs. As a free agent this winter for the first time in his life, his timing couldn't have been worse. Just when it looked like he was able to rebuild his image as a reliable workhorse, he reminded everybody just how fragile he's been the last several years.

For a while it looked like the Yankees might roll the dice by giving him a two-year deal, but after committing nearly a quarter of a billion dollars to CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, that door has apparently been closed. From Joel Sherman of the New York Post:

Keep hearing from multiple sources that the Yankees will have nothing to do with Ben Sheets. They have real concerns about his health, especially they fret about the righty's history with back ailments. The Yankee theory is they already have taken their health gamble by investing in A.J. Burnett for five years.

You know what the kicker is? Like Sheets, Burnett's career has been fraught with injury, only he had the good fortune of pitching 221 innings the season before testing the market. Over the last five years, Sheets has averaged 25.6 starts a season; Burnett, 26.2. In eight seasons in the majors, Sheets has appeared in four All-Star games, including the last two; in a decade, Burnett has yet to appear in one. Though he ended the year on the sidelines, Sheets posted a 139 ERA+ in 31 starts; Burnett, a 105 ERA+ in 35 games.

By most metrics, these two pitchers are incredibly similar; Burnett has been slightly more durable, but Sheets, who also happens to be two years younger, has been more effective. And yet, Burnett was given a five-year, $82.5 million contract while Sheets is waiting for his phone to ring. It just doesn't make sense.

Sooner or later Sheets will sign a contract, whether it's going back to the Brewers for one year or signing a two-year deal elsewhere to rebuild his value. The way the market for his services looks now, though, my guess is that he'll end up being a huge bargain, a legitimate ace forced to sign for 75 cents on the dollars. There are a lot of teams who will be kicking themselves for not signing him now.