From the Windup: Have the Yankees Done Enough This Offseason?

From the Windup is FanHouse's extended look at a particular portion of America's pastime.

While there is still time left in the Hot Stove season, and there are a few high quality players left on the market -- Ben Sheets, anyone? -- the Yankees have been the team who has made the biggest splash in all of baseball thus far. That splash was seemingly a reaction to missing the playoffs for the first time since the strike-shortened 1994.

When the dust has settled from this offseason, though, are the Yankees really better off than last year -- when they finished behind the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox? Let's sort through how the Yankees will look in 2009, and then see how they stack up against the Rays and Red Sox. This is, of course, assuming none of the three teams make another significant roster move.

New York Yankees

It should be noted that the Yankees payroll is not going to be much higher in 2009, a fact most people are conveniently ignoring. The departures of Jason Giambi, Carl Pavano, Mike Mussina, and Bobby Abreu cleared significant payroll. Also, even if Andy Pettitte comes back, it will be for much less than he made last year. So, when examining the Yankees, the key is to focus on the fact that they made noise in the free agency season, not that they are spending so much more money this season than last. Most of the extra money they spent was for future seasons, but as those contracts continue, others will come off the payroll.

They made the big splash by signing three of the top five free agents of the offseason -- CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett -- to mammoth long-term deals with the idea that those three can drastically alter some of the problems the Yankees had last season. Let's examine what kind of an impact they'll really have on the team as a whole.

Starting Pitching

Sabathia is a top-of-the-line ace. I'm not worried about the innings he racked up last year, because he's proven to be durable in the past two seasons. If the Yankees are expecting a full season like what he did with the Brewers, however, they should think again. The NL Central doesn't have near the firepower that the AL East does. Not only that, but the best hitting team in the NL Central faced Sabathia twice at full strength. The Cubs won both of those games and pounded 18 hits off of him in 13 2/3 innings. A small sample, to be sure, but by no means is Sabathia unhittable. He'll have to labor much more in the Bronx.

The likelihood of Burnett repeating his 2008 season is not high. He had never won more than 12 games, and all of a sudden he gets to 18. Now, most people think going to the Yankees means automatic win increases due to the vaunted offense. I'll grant that the Yanks' offense is better than the Blue Jays, but it's not exactly like Burnett was starved for run support in Toronto (4.46). In fairness, the Yankees averaged 4.78 runs per game last year, so he'll likely see a slight increase. Still, Burnett was blessed with incredible luck in getting to 18 wins. He had the worst ERA and WHIP of his career, counting only seasons where he pitched in at least 20 games. He also received stellar defensive support. We'll get to what he should specifically expect from the defense in the Bronx, but it's not up to the level he received north of the border. The other question is durability. Burnett has only made more than 30 starts twice in his career. Is it a coincidence that both seasons just happened to occur in contract years?

The rest of the staff should be better than the bottom three from last year. Chien-Ming Wang only was able to make 15 starts last season. To be accurate, he's actually the Yanks' No. 2, not Burnett. With a full season from Wang, the Yankees have a strong top three. Whatever they end up doing with the last two spots in the rotation, it's certainly going to be better than running out a line of also-rans they did last year. Whether it's Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, or a free agent like Sheets, it will be an upgrade. They could still elect to bring back Pettitte as well.

The rotation is going to be improved. Let's just not get too enthusiastic about it.

Offense

The offense wasn't a major problem last season, but they do have to replace the 52 home runs and 196 RBI left behind by Giambi and Abreu. Getting full seasons from Jorge Posada, Xavier Nady, and Hideki Matsui will help, as will, obviously, the addition of Teixeira. Nick Swisher, if he remains on the team, has the potential to help, but he's coming off a disastrous season in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball.

Some of the downsides are that Derek Jeter appears to be regressing, Posada, Johnny Damon, and Matsui are aging, and Robinson Cano took a huge step backwards last season. I still, however, have confidence in these five to do their part. Getting a healthy season from most of the lineup and adding Teixeira into the middle will make a positive difference.

As for Teixeira himself, I expect pretty much what we saw last year. He'll get into the mid-30s in home runs, around 120 RBI, and compile a sick OPS. I'm also expecting a slow start, just as he's had pretty much every other year of his career.

Overall, the offense is definitely improved, as long as people stay healthy and the older guys don't fall off production-wise. One problem I can foresee is the lack of speed. Their only real fast players are aging. The Yankees will rely on power to score runs, and we all know that can doom teams for spurts during the regular season, not to mention how it can kill it in the postseason.

Defense

According to Fangraphs' UZR defensive rankings -- in my opinion, the strongest defensive measuring stick there is -- only the Reds and Rockies played worse defense than the Yankees in 2008. What has changed? Well, Teixeira -- by this same ranking method -- was the best defensive first baseman in the majors. That's a huge upgrade over the below average Giambi. As far as the rest of the team, though, they've done little to solve their defensive woes. Teixeira doesn't solve the range issues up the middle, nor does he make the outfield faster. This will still be a huge weakness, and it will likely be exploited by fast teams like the Rays.

Intangibles

Honestly, I'm worried about all three of the new guys being able to handle the pressure for which they've recently signed on. Yankees fans have high expectations, as well they should. The New York media is collectively the most massive and difficult group of press in all of sports. That group loves Jeter above all, yet when he had a dreadful start in 2004, even he was not immune from criticism.

Teixeira is traditionally a slow starter, and he hasn't had to deal with any kind of media like the Yankees' throng. The Angels are still the second-most followed team in Los Angeles, and Teixeira only played there for a half season. Before that, he was beloved in Atlanta and largely left alone for over four years in Texas.

Sabathia was absolutely worshipped in Milwaukee for the second half last season. He could do no wrong after taking the Brewers to the playoffs for the first time in ages. When he played in Cleveland, he was never the problem, especially not when he won the Cy Young and nearly led them to the World Series.

Burnett has only played in Toronto and the indifferent Miami market. He even had several issues with the fans in Toronto last year. One time, he was being booed as he walked off the mound, and he mockingly tipped his cap and smiled. Now, it's easy to say he had a good sense of humor about the situation, and you'll get no argument here. I'm not so sure the Yankees fans, however, would find such an action so hilarious. Plus, if you can't handle the wrath of the Blue Jays' fans, what the hell is going to happen in the Big Apple? That's like being scared of a kitten and then claiming you'll be fine going face-to-face with a lion.

Boston Red Sox

Instead of breaking the bank with huge signings, the Red Sox have chosen to stay the path with their current crop, while making minor tweaks and bringing in a host of low-risk/high-reward guys like Brad Penny, Rocco Baldelli, Takashi Saito, and John Smoltz to incentive-laden contracts.

Only the Rangers scored more runs and had a higher OPS than the Red Sox last season. The Sox didn't lose anyone this offseason who will significantly alter the offense, so you'd expect them to maintain this level of quality. In fact, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie are capable of putting together better offensive seasons than the Red Sox saw collectively from center-field and shortstop, respectively, in 2008. After the horrifying offensive season from Jason Varitek, it's hard to see the Red Sox getting any worse behind the plate. Kevin Youkilis, J.D. Drew, Dustin Pedroia, and Jason Bay are firmly in the middle of their respective primes, so I'm not expecting a step backwards there.

Then, of course, there is David Ortiz. If you can look at Big Papi's numbers from last year, then realize he had finished in the top five of MVP voting for each of the previous five seasons, then consider he's only 33; can you seriously not expect a huge bounceback?

Plus, it's a well-rounded lineup. The Red Sox led the AL in on-base percentage, finished third in stolen bases, second in stolen base percentage and first in sacrifice flies. This team can score runs without the long ball.

Defensively, the Sox were stellar last season, ranking third in the majors in the aforementioned UZR measure. Ellsbury might be a better defender than Coco Crisp, and Lowrie is a ton better than Julio Lugo. Assuming Mike Lowell is healthy and plays a full slate of games, this defense is once again an elite one. As far as possibly losing Varitek, the Sox would miss his leadership and game-calling abilities, but his skills have been deteriorating quite a bit these last few years.

On the hill, the Red Sox have as strong a top three as anyone in baseball. With Jon Lester emerging as a bonafide top-of-the-line starter last fall, he joins Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka as quite the formidable trio. Behind those three, they have options. John Smoltz, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny and Clay Buchholz figure to get most of the starts, but even Justin Masterson could be a potential fill-in. If you compare the Red Sox's top five with the Yankees', I'm going to have to give the edge to Boston. The gap between CC and the top Red Sox ace is more than filled by the rest of the rotation.

All told, it's very difficult to imagine the Red Sox as any worse than the 95-win team they were last season.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays won games with pitching, defense, and team speed last season. They finished in the bottom-half of the AL in runs scored, yet won 97 games and went to the World Series. If you can wrap your head around this, you can begin to understand why an offensive juggernaut like the Texas Rangers finished 21 games out of first place.

Using UZR, the Rays were the top defense in baseball, but it wasn't quite that simple. Being the best is complicated, you ask? It is in the sense that no one else was even remotely in their ballpark in the defensive rankings. It's like a separate league. They were so much better defensively than the Phillies -- who ended up second. Carl Crawford is the best defensive player in baseball -- relative to his position. Evan Longoria is also an elite defender, while B.J. Upton is quite solid in center field. Dioner Navarro had the second highest caught stealing percentage (by the way, you know whose was higher? You won't believe it ... Jason Kendall. Seriously.) in the majors. All in all, you aren't getting free runs from this team.

As far as starting pitching goes, the Rays are stacked. They had the second best starting pitchers' ERA in the AL last year, and now they are replacing Edwin Jackson -- formerly known as the weak link -- with the postseason breakout star David Price. Sliding Price into the fifth spot in the rotation after he's already endured the pressure of October should be all he needs to excel. While the Rays don't have the top-of-the-rotation firepower of the Red Sox or Yankees, they do run out a stable of guys who have gotten it done when it mattered most. Best of all, they pitch to the strength of the team. Scott Kazmir is a traditional strikeout guy, but James Shields, Matt Garza, and Andy Sonnanstine allow the opposition to put the ball in play -- and that's when the Rays' defensive prowess takes over.

Offensively, I expect the Rays to be much better this season. Crawford and Longoria didn't play full seasons, Upton seriously underachieved from a power standpoint -- at least in the regular season -- and Pat Burrell will slide into the middle of the order. Burrell gets on base (.367 OBP last season) and hits for power (average of 31 home runs per season since 2004). Having to face Crawford, Upton, Longoria, Burrell, and Carlos Pena is not going to be fun for opposing hurlers.

Where the Rays are outclassed by their two counterparts is at closer. Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon are two of the best in the business, while the Rays situation is in flux. When you take the entire bullpen into consideration, however, the Rays were better than both the Yankees and Red Sox last season. You could argue it was a microcosm for the performance of the teams. The big-name star-power sits in Boston and New York, while the Rays still fared better on the whole. Sure, the gap isn't wide between the three 'pens, but it's not wide between the three teams either.

While considering all of the above numbers, let's not forget things unrelated to stats. The Rays never experienced winning until last year, and, yet, they were never fazed by the big stage. They had no problem maintaining their standing among baseball's best, even when faced with what could have been crippling injuries to Crawford and Longoria. They stared down a surging Red Sox team, only to turn them away in Game 7 of the ALCS. Now they head into a new season having confidence -- even a swagger -- for the first time in franchise history. They'll also have fans behind them for the first time.

Finally, remember the youth in Tampa. The ages on this team* -- the entire starting staff is 27-or-under, Upton is 24, Crawford is 27, Longoria is 23, Navarro is 25, etc. -- there's good reason to believe things are going to get even better.

Overall

Sure, the Yankees are better than they were last year. I just don't buy them as being more than five games better, especially not with the company they have atop the division. They didn't shore up their terrible defense enough, though their rotation is much improved and the offensive firepower remains. They definitely don't have to worry about the Blue Jays breathing down their neck again, but the improvements they've made don't yet put them in a position where we should declare them favorites.

When you stack the three teams up in terms of who is the most complete baseball team, I think you have to say it looks the exact same way as it did at the end of 2008 -- the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees, respectively. The Red Sox and Rays are very similar in terms of being able to beat you in many ways offensively, having a solid top-to-bottom rotation, and a complete bullpen. The Yankees seem more like a fantasy baseball team, with the slugging offense, bad defense, big three in the rotation and a great closer surrounded by mediocre arms in the bullpen.

Sure, things could turn out differently. The Yankees could get studly development from Chamberlain and Hughes, find middle relievers to shut down the opposition, see their older players (Jeter, Damon, Matsui, etc.) drink from the fountain of youth, and watch Burnett become a Cy Young candidate.

As things stand, though, the Yankees are still a step below last year's two AL East playoff teams, star power and lucrative contracts be damned.

*ages are as of the end of the 2009 season