Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over. Meet the ...
Still incredibly young Diamondbacks. It seems like when the Backs failed to keep the momentum going after an early season charge, people forgot this was still a very young team. The overwhelming majority of the roster is younger than 30, and most of the offense is younger than 27. This means we have a large group of guys who have the potential to throw up career-year type numbers at the drop of a hat. Be ready ...
The Breakout
As I said, there's reason to believe a handful of these guys could drastically exceed expectations. When you are sitting 25, 26, or 27 years-old with several years of experience, it's really only a matter of time before the bust-out year happens. Of the group, though, we're going to go with Stephen Drew. Let other people grab Derek Jeter or Rafael Furcal after the "big three" shortstops are gone. You can settle on the fourth best shortstop for this season in Drew.
Now, you might look at Drew's numbers from last season and think that was his breakout (.291 average, 21 jacks, 67 RBI), but you'd be mistaken. He's going to be 26 this season, and he's notched 1,478 plate appearances. That's prime territory to really start coming into his own.
Also, he already started raking in the second half of last season. In his last 86 games he hit .312 with an .887 OPS. During that time, he hit 12 home runs and drove home 42. Building upon those numbers with natural expected improvement, you can envision Drew coming with a .315 average, close to 30 home runs, and around 90 RBI this season. We'll take those for the man going sixth at shortstop any day.
The Bust
I'd love to say no one. I really don't see many of these guys being drafted too high, and many -- as I've said a few times already -- look poised for a breakout season. Let me just say this: If you are drafting a 33 year-old Eric Byrnes in hopes of the 21-homer, 50 stolen base season he provided two years ago, you will be disappointed. The Snakes are building this team as an NL West dynasty. With the development of Justin Upton and Chris Young, in addition to wanting the bats of Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, and Chad Tracy all in the lineup together, Byrnes is going to be riding pine more often than not. I would say Byrnes was a nice candidate to be moved at the trade deadline, but, man, does he have an awful contract. There's no way someone's picking up near $7 million a year for this guy in this economic climate.
The Lineup
1. Felipe Lopez, 2B
2. Stephen Drew, SS
3. Chris Young, CF
4. Conor Jackson, LF
5. Chad Tracy, 1B
6. Mark Reynolds, 3B
7. Justin Upton, RF
8. Chris Snyder, C
Byrnes will play LF some days, and then the Backs have the option of playing Jackson at first and Tracy at third. This would leave Reynolds on the bench, but any combination of that lineup would work with the positional flexibility. Also, Miguel Montero could challenge Snyder for at-bats behind the plate.
The Rotation
1. Brandon Webb
2. Dan Haren
3. Doug Davis
4. Jon Garland
5. Max Scherzer
The Bullpen
CL - Chad Qualls
SU - Tony Pena
SU - Jon Rauch
SU - Tom Gordon
The Skinny
It's a buyer's market in fantasy when it comes to this group. There are two elite pitching options (Webb and Haren, obviously), but the many of the rest could be argued to be undervalued this season.
• Scherzer has the capability to become a front-line rotation member. He'll take a big step this season. In fact, if not for Drew, he would have been my above choice for "breakout." Do not sleep on the man with the odd eye.
• Once being freed from the Nationals, Lopez raked for the Cardinals. Now he's got his brand new job in the desert. You won't ever see his power come back (23 homers in '05, never more than 11 in any other of his eight seasons), but he'll run, score runs, and provide decent average. He's a late-rounder in all leagues, but a good save if you get screwed out of a quality second baseman.
• Last year represented a big step backward for Young, but let's remember he's still only 25. We've seen enough from him to believe he could one day join the 40-40 club. If you can handle the hit to batting average, he's a good lower-tier outfielder. It never hurts to hope the third full season is the charm.
• It doesn't seem like the power is ever going to come with Jackson. That's three full seasons and only 42 career taters. He does provide good batting average and even stole 10 bases last year. He does turn 27 this year, so it's not unheard of for someone to develop major league power at this point in his career. At 6'2" 225, it's not like he's small.
• Reynolds is only 25. He's already hit 45 homers, but he struck out 204 times last year. Reports from camp state that Reynolds is working on the strike zone and is making every effort to cut down on his whiffs. If that happens even a little bit, you have serious power from the corner here. He's capable of 40 home runs a season. Those 11 steals from last year would just be gravy.
• If there is one person I'd truly avoid, it's Garland. I know he's moving to a much easier division in which to pitch, but his numbers have badly trended downward for the past four seasons. He appears to be getting worse before our very eyes. I'm thinking the league switch makes him more valuable to many of your fellow owners. Just as you would with any tofu product, politely pass.
• Finally, it still just feels like Upton is a year away from the big payoff. I say that because he still hasn't completely grasped the strike zone and the ratio numbers haven't trended upward enough yet. That being said, do you really want to miss out on it when it happens? Once you get your three full-time outfielders, it can't hurt to take a gamble on the young stud.
