FanHouse begins its 2009 MLB Preview with a look at the Atlanta Braves.It's not my typical policy to engage in cheesy headline writing, however, this is GM Frank Wren's second full year at the helm with his team. Things are going to be different, in theory. But more importantly, it might be time to go ahead and realize that this isn't your dad's Braves team, or your older brother's for that matter. After 14 straight division titles, the Braves have been absent from the postseason for two straight years. Wren's job, obviously, is to fix that.
There were plenty of moves made in the offseason -- namely the tweaking the pitching staff -- but the thing that stood out to a lot of fans were the moves that didn't get made -- the Jake Peavy trade that never materialized and the signing of John Smoltz ... by the Red Sox.
Wren probably caught more guff than he really deserved, and certainly he's coming into this job at a rough time; not only does the economy stink bad enough to affect professional sports, but the Phillies are coming off a World Series championship and the Mets apparently didn't hear they're supposed to save money.
| Lineup | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Josh Anderson |
CF |
| 2. | Yunel Escobar |
SS |
| 3. | Chipper Jones |
3B |
| 4. | Brian McCann |
C |
| 5. | Garret Anderson |
LF |
| 6. | Jeff Francoeur |
RF |
| 7. | Kelly Johnson |
2B |
| 8. | Casey Kotchman |
1B |
| 9. | Pitcher's Spot | P |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 1. | Derek Lowe |
R |
| 2. | Javier Vazquez |
R |
| 3. | Kenshin Kawakami |
R |
| 4. | Jair Jurrjens |
R |
| 5. | Tom Glavine |
L |
| CL | Mike Gonzalez |
L |
In: Javier Vazquez, SP (trade); Derek Lowe, SP (free agency); Kenshin Kawakami, SP (free agency); Garret Anderson, LF (free agency); Casey Kotchman, 1B (trade)
Out: John Smoltz, SP (free agency);
Storylines
Same Old Song and Dance ...
Despite the presence of big-time hitters in the lineup over the years (think Chipper, 'Druw, David Justice, Ron Gant) the Braves' success has always been driven by an unwavering dedication to a maintaining one of the best rotations in baseball. Then, all of a sudden, that rotation became old and busted (this was probably before Glavine's reunion tour). This year, things at least seem to be a touch different with the additions of Vazquez, Lowe and Kawakami to complement Jair Jurrjens, who was outstanding in his 2008 full-season debut. There are still issues with the rotation, of course. Glavine is ancient even for someone slotted as the fifth starter, and his potentials replacements in the case of an almost inevitable injury, either Jo-Jo Reyes or Jorge Campillo, aren't guaranteed to really shore up anything. Additionally, the bullpen has been abused by Bobby Cox for the past few years as a result of poor/injured starting pitching. If the new guys can at least provide some stability and consistency, things will be a lot more like years past and a lot less like the last two.
Sitting Here in Limbo ...But for all the pitching upgrades that Frank Wren managed to pull off, there are still plenty of question marks surrounding the Braves in terms of their lineup. Anderson was the only offensive addition. Kotchman is an obvious, albeit financially necessary, downgrade from Mark Teixeira. But perhaps the biggest oddities were the misses: Rafael Furcal spurned Atlanta at the last minute in negotiations that became embarrassingly public. And while Anderson is a cheap addition and an upgrade in a weak outfield, Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr., were both out there for the taking. The Braves missed on the latter and never pursued the former, which is odd considering that he hits 40 home runs every single year and couldn't command more than $10 million a season on the open market. The point of all this is that offense has to be a concern for the Braves heading into 2009, unless they think that Chipper Jones can repeat his 2008 MVP-caliber season, a rather unlikely proposition.
Goin' Out West ...
The biggest offseason rumor that never came to fruition was the Peavy trade talk. Peavy was supposed to be out of San Diego -- either to Atlanta or the Cubs -- but no one could (read: was willing to) put together the package that Padres GM Kevin Towers wanted for his ace. Obviously, if Peavy had wound up with the Braves, the makeup of the NL East would have been dramatically altered. Add him to a rotation that features Lowe, Vazquez and Jurrjens, and you have the type of pitching that leads to a division championship. Of course, that's not to say the deal is dead -- most folks, myself included, believe that as soon as the Padres stumble, there will be economic pressure to cut costs. Considering Peavy's attractiveness on the open market, the potential prospect haul San Diego could get for him and the fact that he doesn't want to pitch for a perennial loser, you have to think the ace might be the first to go. If he is, there's no reason to think that the Braves won't be players again.
The Kids Are Alright ...
OK, so maybe the Braves won't reel in Peavy, but if they back down this time, it won't be because they don't have the necessary pieces to send back to San Diego. It would be because they don't want to give those pieces up in any sort of deal. Why? Because there's a slew of pretty impressive talent in the Braves farm system, and depending on how certain folks work out, there's a chance they could get a lot of run in 2009. Jordan Schafer, who was suspended for HGH (although he denies using it) in 2008, is probably the most likely player to get a shot first. If he performs well in Spring Training and Josh Anderson doesn't look great, Schafer could get the gig in center field. Tommy Hanson is expected to get a look in 2009 as well, although a lot of the timing for Hanson's debut will depend on the health of the current rotation and his spring performance as well. Jason Heyward, Gorkys Hernandez and Freddie Freeman are all probably a year away, but they're also why you don't see Wren looking to unload his farm system in order to try and win now. The GM knows this group has an incredibly bright future once they all get onto the major league roster.
2009 Outlook
Why You Should Watch: Because regardless of how much people love the Phillies and the Mets, this is a Braves team that could be competitive. The rotation is going to be stable, if not exciting, and there is upside in the batting order. Even if they don't win, this could be a pretty amazing trainwreck. Chipper is already cheesed about the decision to let Smoltz walk, and there's no telling whether Francoeur will break out or melt down.
What Defines Success: You can hold onto the past for so long. Fortunately for the Braves, three years isn't too long. In other words, yes, the only way that this year can be defined as successful is with a playoff berth. Normally that might involve a division title, but considering just how strong the NL East is, it would be asking too much to set the floor for success at winning the division.
Related Links
- Fantasy Baseball Preview: An Oddly Juxtaposed Offseason
- Better Know a Prospect: Atlanta Braves
