This morning, the World Baseball Classic opened up with Japan's 4-0 shutout of China. No good tournament is complete without a set of half-baked predictions, and since I seem to be FanHouse's resident guy that's actually mildly interested in this thing, I guess that makes me the guy to make them. After the jump, I've ranked all 16 WBC teams in order I think they'll be eliminated in. The format is a bit different this year. Instead of being a straight-up round robin like 2006, it's actually a series of mini-double-elimination brackets with the top two teams from each pool advancing to the second round of pool play, then the top two teams from those pools advancing to the semifinals, where it shifts to single-elimination. If you're confused you can look at the official bracket or just follow along with me as I go.
- China | Ranking: 16
With well over a billion people to scout, the Yankees have begun to comb China for talent that has to be there somewhere. Still, it's going to be a few years before it manifests itself. Until then, this is the same Chinese squad that was outscored 60-14 in seven Olympic games in Beijing against competition that's far inferior to what they'll see this week. - South Africa | Ranking: 15
As bad as China was in the Olympics, South Africa should give them a pretty solid run for the honor of being the worst team in this tournament. They've got no real big-league talent, limited minor-league talent, and a tough draw, with Cuba in their first game and the loser of Australia-Mexico waiting in the second game. If they go anything but two and out, I'm going to be surprised - Italy | Ranking: 14
They managed to wrangle a few big-leaguers of Italian descent into playing for the Azzurri, but they're badly overmatched. In 2006 they managed a win over Australia, but in a pool with the U.S., Canada, and Venezuela, their hopes of repeating that feat in 2009 are pretty slim. I mean, do they even play baseball in Europe? How do they pick the teams for this thing? - Netherlands | Ranking: 13
This club is mostly notable for it's roster full of ex-major leaguers famous for doing things other than baseball. Randall Simon whacked a running sausage mascot with a bat. Sidney Ponson was knighted in Aruba, but then punched an Aruban judge out. The guys like Ponson and Simon from Caribbean countries like Aruba and Curacao mean this team might not be as bad as you think, but they're still not very good.
- Chinese Taipei | Ranking: 12
Taiwan catches a break here, because I'm grouping these teams in the order I think they'll be eliminated. I don't think they're better than Italy or the Netherlands, but they are better than China, and that buys them an extra game and moves them into the second grouping of teams. They've got some decent minor-league talent, but nothing spectacular, and will quickly be eliminated by Korea or Japan in their third game. - Australia | Ranking: 11
I really like some of Australia's young talent (Liam Hendriks, Mitch Dening), but it is very young and there's not much big-league-level ability to balance it out and get them into the second round. They're likely looking at two losses to Mexico in the first round; one in the opening game and one in their third game, assuming they beat South Africa and Mexico loses to Cuba. - Panama | Ranking: 10
Ranking teams across pools isn't always easy and I do like Australia's team a little more than some people, but Panama has much better talent than the Aussies, so they get the nod here for the second best team that won't advance to the second round. In a pool with Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, they're just not going to be able to keep up. - Canada | Ranking: 9
For the second straight WBC, I think the Canadians are going to be the best team not to advance from their pool. Their problem is the same as it was three years ago; there's apparently no one north of the border with a live enough arm to hold the powerhouses from the U.S. and Venezuela to a reasonable run total. Because of that, they're going to be on the outside looking in.
- Korea | Ranking: 8
I know the hopes are high in Korea after their Gold Medal in the Beijing Olympics, but I'm just not seeing this team advancing very far without Seung Yeop-Lee, and if they don't win their pool over Japan, they have a tough draw in the second round, likely facing Cuba and then Japan or Mexico. I think they're the first team eliminated from Pool 1 in the second round. - Venezuela | Ranking: 7
I don't think they have the pitching to top the U.S. in Pool C, which sets up a likely matchup with the Domincan Republic in the first game of Pool 2, then the U.S. or Puerto Rico in the second game if they can't beat the D.R. This is certainly a talented team, but their pitching staff isn't great and I think that the draw ends up dooming them in the end. They're the first team out of Pool 2. - Puerto Rico | Ranking: 6
Puerto Rico might have enough firepower to get past Venezuela, but I think they eventually end up dumped from Pool 2 by the U.S. It's the pitching problem again. I just don't see Javier Vazquez or Ian Snell and their patchwork bullpen holding down an impressive U.S. lineup. Plus, they're actually going to use Bernie Williams as their DH, which is kind of like the Mariners using Jose Vidro at DH all year last year, just with a little more sentimental value. - Japan | Ranking: 5
I've gone pretty much by the book to this point, so let's shake things up and make a bold prediction: The defending champs won't advance past the second round. I don't actually think Mexico is a better team than they are, but for some reason I like the Mexican squad and I just don't see Japan being as successful in the tournament this year. Upset city.
- Mexico | Ranking: 4
That said, Mexico just isn't going to have the talent to match up with the Dominican Republic, which is who they'll likely be facing as Pool 2 runner-up. The last round is a one-shot, which makes anything possible, but I don't see Mexico beating either the D.R. in the semis or Cuba in the third-place game. Still, I think everyone in Mexico would be pretty happy to see a run to final round. - Cuba | Ranking: 3
I think the defections finally take their toll a bit on Cuba when the finals roll around, and they get mildly upset by the United States, who comes out of Pool 2 as the runner-up. It'll be a disappointment for the Cuban team, but they're missing some good players (Alexi Ramirez, Yadel Marti) from the 2006 team that made it to the finals before falling to Japan and they're going to have a hard time making it back that far.
- Dominican Republic | Ranking: 2
Yes, this means I'm picking the U.S. to win. The D.R. is certainly incredibly talented, especially in the infield (even if A-Rod doesn't play), but their outfield just isn't very good and their pitching staff, while talented, boasts a pretty high implosion factor with guys like Ubaldo Jiminez, Johnny Cueto, and Pedro Martinez. This squad is very, very good but I just don't think they're good enough.
- United States | Ranking: 1
Yeah, I'll be the guy that picks the United States to win this thing. Look, we've got the deepest and most talented roster, but it's also a roster built for this kind of tournament, with some situational lefties like John Grabow and JP Howell, and a strong bullpen in general. Throw in that everyone's already writing them off because, "You know the American players don't care about this" or some nonsense like that, and I think you're going to have a talented team that has something to prove. Just think of them as baseball's version of the "Redeem Team."
