FanHouse continues its 2009 MLB Preview with a look at the Oakland Athletics.
There's been an awful lot said about the non-traditional stylings of A's GM Billy Beane over the years, but his greatest asset is an absolute refusal to see players as anything more than they are. While teams like the Yankees and Red Sox pay too much to aging veterans because of ties to the franchise and other clubs clutch prospects like gold bars with absolute values, Beane coldly uses players like the assets they are before moving onto a new batch.
That ruthlessness, more than any of the things mislabeled "Moneyball", has kept the A's competitive while teams in better financial straits cry rivers about competitive imbalance. Beane has done everything in his power to put the team in position to win now, but he won't hesitate to dismantle what he's built come July if things don't go as planned. His only loyalty, after all, is to the win column.
| Lineup | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Mark Ellis | 2B |
| 2. | Travis Buck | RF |
| 3. | Matt Holliday | LF |
| 4. | Jason Giambi | 1B |
| 5. | Jack Cust | DH |
| 6. | Eric Chavez | 3B |
| 7. | Ryan Sweeney | CF |
| 8. | Orlando Cabrera | SS |
| 9. | Kurt Suzuki | C |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 1. | Justin Duchscherer | R |
| 2. | Dana Eveland | L |
| 3. | Sean Gallagher | R |
| 4. | Dallas Braden | L |
| 5. | Gio Gonzalez | L |
| CL | Brad Ziegler | R |
In: Matt Holliday, LF (trade); Jason Giambi, 1B, (free agent); Russ Springer, RP (free agent); Michael Wuertz, RP (free agent); Orlando Cabrera, SS (free agent); Nomar Garciaparra, IF (free agent)
Out: Greg Smith, SP (trade); Huston Street, RP (trade); Carlos Gonzalez, OF (trade); Alan Embree, RP (free agent); Matt Murton, OF (trade); Emil Brown, OF (free agent); Frank Thomas, DH (free agent)
Storylines
First Half Full or Empty....
Trading for Holliday and his $13.5 million contract was a bold signal from Beane that he intended to compete for the postseason this summer. Adding Giambi, Cabrera and Garciaparra was the equivalent of going all in in Texas Hold 'Em when you've already got half your chips on the table. Part of the risk of going all in, though, is the chance that someone's got a better hand and you head to the showers early.
Before July 31, the A's will know whether their hand is the one to beat, and if it isn't, you can be sure that Beane will be actively trying to unload guys like Holliday, Cabrera and Justin Duchscherer so that he's got enough to get back to the table in 2010. Conversely, the A's have such a deep system that if they're close, Beane won't hesitate to make another big trade to put them over the top.
Young Arms Beat Fast...
The A's took all of the money they saved by dealing Rich Harden, Joe Blanton and Chad Gaudin last summer and dumped it into improving an offense that scored the fewest runs in the American League. As a result, they'll build a rotation by taking a bevy of young arms and seeing how things shake out behind Duchscherer.
There's reason to believe that it will work out for them. Prospects Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro and Josh Outman all have great arms, and slightly more advanced guys like Dallas Braden, Dana Eveland, Sean Gallagher and Gio Gonzalez have all shown signs that they can be successful at the big-league level. The A's will likely churn through the lot of them as the season goes on, but it would be surprising if two or three don't seperate from the pack and stake their spots in the A's rotations of the near future.
Here's to Your Health...Counting on young pitchers is enough to drive most managers to drink, but Bob Geren will also have to constantly monitor the trainer's room. Duchscherer, on whom the rotation relies, has a sore elbow and probably won't be ready to start the season with the team. Joey Devine, who will share closing duties with Brad Ziegler, also has an ailing elbow and hasn't thrown much this spring. Ziegler, for his part, is pitching in the WBC, something that forced one in three pitchers to the disabled list in 2006.
Offensively, Eric Chavez is coming off shoulder surgery and is at risk for injury from the moment he gets out of bed in the morning. Mark Ellis also had shoulder surgery, and Giambi and Garciaparra aren't strangers to the disabled list. The A's could probably survive without any one of these guys, except Duchscherer, but if two or three miss significant time they'll be in trouble.
Holliday (on the) Road...
We started with Holliday, so it seems sensible to close with him as well. It's hard to know just what to expect from him in his first season away from Denver. He's moving to a better league and a worse hitter's park all at once, troubling signs for a player who historically performed at a lower level away from Coors Field. The good news is that 2008 was his best year away from home, but he'll almost surely decline. The question will be how much he'll decline, and how much his presence will be a tide that lifts the other ships in the lineup.
2009 Outlook
Why You Should Watch: Beane's grand experiment should be one of the leading storylines of the season's first half, that's why. The A's lineup should score runs, and the plethora of youthful arms could provide a Rookie of the Year candidate. It could also turn out to be a trainwreck if Holliday can't make the transition to the AL and Duchscherer and Devine come up lame, but those can be hard to turn your eyes away from also.
What Defines Success: This team was put together to win and win now, plain and simple. Holliday is gone after '09, Duchscherer probably isn't far behind and guys like Chavez, Ellis and Giambi have limited value going forward. They could salvage something from a failed playoff run, but not enough to qualify it as a success.
- Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Most Average Team in Baseball
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