Reason for Optimism in Cincinnati

FanHouse continues its 2009 MLB Preview with a look at the Cincinnati Reds.

Once one of the most admired franchises in professional sports, the Reds have now suffered through nearly a decade of futility. The last time they finished above .500 was in 2000, when they won 85 games. The last trip to the postseason was in 1995. Even their gorgeous ballpark is barren for much of the summer, as the Reds finished 23rd in attendance last season. It's safe to say that the days of the Big Red Machine are a distant memory.

On the other hand, things are looking up in the Queen City. The Reds are shifting the focus to a more well-rounded lineup predicated on speed and team defense. The pitching staff is getting deeper as talented young arms develop to fill the rotation around Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo.

Lineup
1.	Willy Taveras	CF
2.	Jerry Hairston	SS
3.	Joey Votto	1B
4.	Brandon Phillips	2B
5.	Jay Bruce	RF
6.	Edwin Encarnacion	3B
7.	Ramon Hernandez	C
8.	Chris Dickerson	LF
9.	Pitcher's Spot	P
Pitching Staff
1.	Edinson Volquez	R
2.	Aaron Harang	R
3.	Bronson Arroyo	R
4.	Johnny Cueto	R
5.	Micah Owings	R
CL	Francisco Cordero	R

Coming and Going

In: Willy Taveras, CF (free agency); Ramon Hernandez, C (trade); Arthur Rhodes, RP (free agency); Jonny Gomes, LF (free agency); Daryle Ward, OF/1B (free agency); Jacque Jones, OF (free agency)
Out: Jeremy Affeldt, RP (free agency); Javier Valentin, C (free agency); Paul Bako, C (free agency); Corey Patterson, CF (free agency); Ryan Freel, UT (trade); Gary Majewski, RP (free agency); Matt Belisle, SP (free agency)

Storylines

In Dusty We Trust-y ...
I often wonder how a conversation would go with Dusty Baker if I simply asked him if he wanted his hitters to make an out. His answer would obviously be no. I'd respond that on-base percentage is the measure of how good his players are at not getting out. I would, in turn, love to see how he explained that OBP was some sort of witchcraft. Now, it's spreading to his players like a cold or something. Brandon Phillips doesn't understand it either.

Of course, we also have Dusty's odd beliefs in retreads to finally work out.

Next, you have the whole Dusty likes to run starting pitchers into the ground thing, in addition to the charges he doesn't develop young players well enough.

As a Cubs fan, I can attest for the positives Baker can bring. He relates well with players, so they'll enjoy coming to the ballpark for play for him every day. If there are players on the squad who have had a few bad seasons due to pressing or issues with management, he can get them turned around. He's also incredibly lax with them, though. Baker's last season in Chicago was riddled with missed cut-off men, awful baserunning, and stretches of indifference from many players. If you don't demand some sort of discipline, it all eventually disappears.

With all this in mind, is Baker really the one who can man a turnaround in Cincy? We'll have a better idea by the end of 2009, because the Reds have a solid foundation of talent.

Flukey Volquez? ...
Edinson Volquez stormed out of the gate last season and looked to be establishing himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. After a June 20 start, he was 10-2 with a 1.71 ERA. From that point on, however, he was mediocre at best, posting a 4.63 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. Which is the real Volquez?

Unfortunately for Reds fans, he's closer to that guy from June 20 to the end of the season. You can't really argue he wore down, because he wasn't yet through June when he started his descent back to our fair planet. He had control problems all season, ending the year with 93 walks. Team those with his 206 strikeouts, and that's a lot of pitches -- which really puts you in the worry zone with Baker as his manager.

Furthermore, there's a chance the rest of the National League simply adjusted to him. When a hitter and pitcher don't know anything about each other, it creates a huge inherent advantage for the pitcher. Once he's been through the league a bit, players start to figure him out.

Yes, it's possible Volquez makes adjustments of his own and improves in his second NL season. He's young enough to have another season like the one we just witnessed. I'm just not expecting anything close to a repeat performance in 2009.

Odd Choices ...
The Willy Taveras signing for center field and leadoff doesn't make much sense to me. He's good at stealing bases, but a downright atrocious hitter. That .308 on-base percentage from last season doesn't translate well to leading off in a lineup hoping to be potent either.

Then you have the Reds signing Jerry Hairston to a $2 million deal. He's turning 33 this season, and he's coming off only the second season in his career where he wasn't a bad offensive player. Plus, his career year in 2008 only occurred in 80 games. He's fragile, having played more than 100 games only four times in his career. They've got Jeff Keppinger and Alex Gonzalez at shortstop, and the only other hole would be left field.

With the money the Reds spent on Hairston and Taveras, wouldn't it have made more sense to put Chris Dickerson in center and then pursue a power-hitting left fielder to put in the middle of the lineup, either via trade or free agency? Or at least just find a center fielder with a high on-base percentage?

We'll see how the Reds' decision-making pans out this season, but I have a hunch neither Taveras nor Hairston are in the starting lineup come July. That's $4 million on the bench that could have been used elsewhere.

All Grown Up? ...
Several key members of this Reds team could elevate them to a division championship should they make large strides in 2009. Johnny Cueto (23), Homer Bailey (22), Bill Bray (25), Nick Masset (26), Jay Bruce (21), and Dickerson (26) all have great potential, but we can't quite be sure they'll develop to said potential during this particular season. It could be this year, it could be next or it could be 2011 when everything comes together. Phillips (27), Edwin Encarnacion (26), and Volquez (25) also have the capability to further develop.

Because of all this young talent, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds win the division ... or finish last. And of course, everything comes full circle in this preview, because I seriously question if Baker is the best manager under which this youth can grow into the team they are capable of becoming.

2009 Outlook

Why You Should Watch: We just told you why. There are a lot of young, talented players in Cincinnati. They'll be fun to watch, with a good blend of speed, power, and power pitching.

What Defines Success: With all the kids, the key for the Reds is to take baby steps. Just staying competitive in either the divisional or wild-card race into September would be a great experience and ready them for a legitimate run in 2010. Anything more than that would be gravy. Hopefully the natives are patient enough to stick around for the payoff, because, realistically, this is a .500ish team that looks like they are a year away.

Related Links

- Fantasy Baseball Preview: Plenty of Speed, Pitching to Be Had
- Better Know a Prospect: Cincinnati Reds