Every Sunday, MLB FanHouse empties out its notebook in Baseball Brunch.Bobby Cox has been telling people that 22-year-old Tommy Hanson is the best pitcher in Braves camp this spring, but that he won't make the team.
For Cox, Atlanta's manager, it's pretty straightforward: He has a full rotation. Likewise, Tampa Bay is so pitching-rich it can afford to keep David Price down a while longer.
But often managers and general managers face a tough decision on when to take a prospect north. And around the majors, young pitchers are making cases to be on opening-day rosters.
Or maybe the decisions make themselves.
"When their time comes," Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski told FanHouse, "there's not a lot of people who are going to stand in their way."
Dombrowski has right-hander Rick Porcello, just 20. Washington may be making a spot for right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, 22. And a trio of Oakland youngsters are making a case: Vin Mazzaro (22), Brett Anderson (21) and Trevor Cahill (21).
The Braves can afford to keep Hanson -- who dominated the Arizona Fall League -- down for more seasoning. But the Nationals need pitching and a reason for fans to pay attention. And the Tigers and Athletics expect to compete, so if a prospect shows he's one of the best five starters in camp, he can win a job.
Both Dombrowski and Mike Rizzo, the Nationals' acting GM, said the decision rests in large part on the players' mental makeup.
"It's always walking a fine line with the risk of rushing a pitcher and having him fail and send him back to the minor leagues," Rizzo told FanHouse. "We all know, no matter how good a young guy is, he's going to take his lumps during the season. How he reacts to that determines if he's an above-average major-league pitcher or an average guy."
As Dombrowski put it, "For me, other than (pitching) ability, their ability to just handle everything is the second biggest factor, or maybe the biggest factor."
Six years ago, Dombrowski decided to put Jeremy Bonderman -- who had never been above Single-A -- on the Opening Day roster.
"He could have benefitted from more time in the minors," Dombrowski said, "but we thought we could further develop him at the big-league level."
But that was a rebuilding team that could afford to develop players in the majors.
Porcello could have been a top-five pick in the 2007 draft, but his contract demands caused teams to pass on him until the Tigers took him 27th -- and gave him a $7 million big-league contract.
Even so, Porcello wasn't supposed to be ready after just 24 professional starts, all last year in Class A.
"He has that makeup, there's no question he has that makeup." Dombrowski said. "He's far mature beyond his years.
"He went to spring training as more of a long shot and has put himself under consideration with the way he's pitched."
Detroit has an opening with the struggles of Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson and Bonderman's recovery from surgery.
In Oakland, supposed ace Justin Duchscherer is down, leaving at least two open spots in the rotation. Now the buzz is comparing Mazzaro, Anderson and Cahill to Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito.
Jason Giambi told baybridgebaseball.com that he encouraged GM Billy Beane to take all three north.
"Hopefully we'll have a shot to ride these guys right out of spring training," Giambi said. "I've been pushing to go with these kids. I'd love to see all three of them. Just bum rush this league and let them go."
"... This team is on the verge of being a really really good team if those young kids can turn it on."
With Washington's release of Shawn Hill, there seems to be a spot for Zimmermann to grab."His stuff is more than major-league ready," Rizzo said. "We feel we have a special guy, a unque guy who throws strikes with four pitches, doesn't get fazed in a pressure situation and isn't afraid."
In 12 1/3 spring innings before his start Saturday, Zimmermann had yet to allow a run, giving up six hits, walking two and striking out 16. He was rocked Saturday, allowing five runs over two innings, but that doesn't change what he could give the pitching-starved Nats.
"We were of the opinion that he'd be ready for the big leagues this year," Rizzo said. "He's maybe accelerated that process of when he gets to the big leagues."
Zimmermann went 40 picks after Porcello in the 2007 draft, and one thing they share is not coming from the Sun Belt. Porcello is from New Jersey, Zimmermann from Wisconsin.
"Those guys," Rizzo said, "usually take a little bit longer than this to thaw out."
Overheard and Understood
• Price could make the Rays if he comes on strong down the stretch of spring training, but he has been working so hard on refining his changeup that his other pitches are behind. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is willing to listen to offers on right-handers Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann. San Diego, which has some pitching prospects but needs help at the major-league level, could be a fit. The Rays don't feel a need to move Hammel or Niemann, but once Price is ready, one of those two become expendable. Tampa's depth is such that a scout who has followed the Rays this spring said the projected top four starters at Triple-A Durham -- Price, Wade Davis, Mitch Talbot and former Astros lefty Carlos Hernandez -- "would pitch for a lot of big-league clubs."
• Brandon Wood's strong spring puts the Los Angeles Angels in a bit of a bind. They want to keep Wood on the roster, but in the past, the Angels could play someone like Wood at third base and move Chone Figgins to the outfield. Now the outfield is crowded, and Figgins is the team's only real leadoff man. As a result, according to one major-league source, the Angels are willing to deal Gary Matthews Jr. and eat some of the remaining $33 million (through 2011) on his contract. Wood, a 24-year-old power hitter, was a first-round pick in 2003 and has hit .191 over 68 big-league games (55 strikeouts, four walks).
| Chart of the Week | |
|---|---|
| The Twins last year came within a one-game playoff of the postseason, so we should consider them on the verge of breaking through. Except only one team that lost a one-game playoff made the postseason the next year: | |
| Playoff Loser | Next Season |
| 2007 Padres | 63-99, last place |
| 1999 Reds | 85-77, 2nd place |
| 1998 Giants | 86-76, 2nd place |
| 1995 Angels | 70-91, last place |
| 1980 Dodgers | 63-47, won WS |
| 1978 Red Sox | 91-69, 3rd place |
| 1948 Red Sox | 96-58, 2nd place |
• Somehow, Minnesota's Delmon Young grounded into four double plays on Wednesday. That's the same as the regular season record. Young, whom the Twins have encouraged to pull the ball more often, also homered in the game. "If I go up there looking to pull, I beat it into the ground; I roll over," he told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. "Even the homer, I was looking to pull. It still got up, but it had topspin on it."
• Having lost C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, the Brewers know they will have to hit their way to a winning record. But one team official said while pitching "will be a challenge," Milwaukee is "probably similar to where we were last year at this time" -- when Sabathia was in Cleveland and Sheets' health history was a concern.
• No, you weren't seeing things. That was Ian Snell, of Camden, Del., on the Puerto Rico team in the WBC. And the Hairston brothers, Jerry Jr. (Chicago) and Scott (Tucson, Ariz.), playing for Mexico. Snell wanted to play for Puerto Rico because his stepfather, whom he considers his father, is Puerto Rican. And the Hairstons' mother is a native of Mexico.
• Baseball America ranked the Angels as the No. 25 organization in terms of talent, but Los Angeles has a chance to restock in June. The Angels have five of the top 48 picks in the draft as a result of losing Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez and Jon Garland to free agency.
• The Baseball Hall of Fame has gotten into the blogosphere: "Cooperstown Chatter" will feature posts by Hall staffers.
