Don't Sleep on Brewers in 2009

FanHouse continues it 2009 MLB Preview with a look at the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers are a really interesting team. Last March, everyone expected them to make a run at the playoffs, and they expected them to do so without any knowledge of the CC Sabathia trade and with the assumption that Ben Sheets would spend some time on the disabled list. In the end, they did make the playoffs, but they did it with half of a season of Sabathia and almost 200 innings from Sheets. Now those two are gone, and everyone expects the Brewers to take a step back this year.

There are certainly questions about the Brewers, and those questions are considerable enough that I don't think they're going to win 90 games again, nor do I really think they're a playoff team this year. But that doesn't mean that they're going back to being the Bud Selig-era Brewers again, either. There's still a lot of good stuff going on in Milwaukee and I think this team is closer to contending than people realize.

Lineup
1.	Mike Cameron	CF
2.	J.J. Hardy	SS
3.	Ryan Braun	3B
4.	Prince Fielder	1B
5.	Corey Hart	RF
6.	Rickie Weeks	2B
7.	Bill Hall	3B
8.	Jason Kendall	C
9.	Pitcher's Spot	P
Pitching Staff
1.	Yovani Gallardo	R
2.	Dave Bush	R
3.	Manny Parra	L
4.	Jeff Suppan	R
5.	Braden Looper	R
CL	Trevor Hoffman	R

Coming and Going

In: Braden Looper, SP (free agency); Trevor Hoffman, CL (free agency); Jorge Julio, RP (free agency); Todd Coffey, RP (free agency); Trot Nixon, OF (free agency); Wes Littleton, RP (waivers)
Out: Salomon Torres, CL (retirement); Eric Gagne, RP (free agency); Ben Sheets, SP (free agency); CC Sabathia, SP (free agency)

Storylines

Rebuilding a Rotation ...
Nothing's bringing Sheets or Sabathia back to Milwaukee, so the Brewers would do well not to waste any more time wishing that would change. Instead, fans need to focus on the two pitchers tasked with replacing their production: Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra.

Gallardo blew out his knee covering first base in his third start of 2008 and only made on start after that. As a result, I think a lot of people aren't as familiar with the 23-year-old budding ace as they should be. In 395 2/3 innings, Gallardo struck out 457 batters. That includes an impressive run at Triple-A in 2007, when he went 8-3 with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, striking out 12.7 batters per nine innings and racking up nearly four times as many strikeouts as walks. If the Brewers are really going to contend again in 2009, they need a healthy Gallardo pitching up to his potential to anchor their rotation.

People are much more familiar with Parra. He spent all of last year with the Brewers. His struggles down the stretch are likely fresh in many minds, and it's true that his 7.79 September ERA was one of the reasons the Brewers nearly missed the playoffs. Parra was a rookie in 2008, though, and with a year under his belt to adjust to the length of a big-league season and pennant race, I think we might see a different pitcher in 2009. Between May 30 and August 10, Parra held oppenents to a 3.38 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP. His walk rate was a little high, but his strikeout rate was nearly eight per nine innings.

Milwaukee needs Gallardo and Parra to be a strong 1-2 punch this year, because it has an alarming lack of depth behind them. Before they signed Looper at the start of camp, they were headed in to spring training with just five starters. Dave Bush isn't bad in the three slot, but Jeff Suppan has been a disaster since coming to Milwaukee and Seth McClung is, well, Seth McClung. In order for this rotation to work on any level, the Brewers need big performances from their two young starters and above all, they need everyone to be healthy.

RIckie's Clock Is Ticking ...
I think it's safe to assume that the Brewers will be giving up more than the 689 runs they allowed last year. In order to balance that out, they're going to have to score more runs to stay competitive. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are among the elite young power hitters in the National League and neither one has hit their prime yet, so it's certainly safe to count on them for continued production. One player the Brewers would like to see more from, though, is second baseman Rickie Weeks.

The Brewers loved what they saw from a 22-year-old Weeks in 2005 when he got his first real playing time in Milwaukee. He bopped 13 homers in 96 games and along with the 12 he hit in Triple-A before his callup that year, the Brewers thought they could count on some real power from second base in the future. Since then, Weeks has tantalized the Brewers with flashes of potential, but never really lived up to his billing.

He's shown a pretty good ability to get on base and some decent pop in the past couple years, but paired it with abysmal batting averages and fairly high strikeout rates. Still, he's only 26 and there's still a little time for him to keep growing as a hitter. The Brewers certainly need the added offense this year and if Weeks can't provide it, he may find that his carriage has finally turned into a pumpkin. Alcides Escobar is waiting in Triple-A, with a great glove and an improving bat. If he gets off to a hot start and Weeks doesn't, the Brewers might be ready for a change.

Doug Melvin's Next Move ...
The Brewers' GM transformed the National League pennant race last year when he acquired Sabathia from Cleveland on July 7. As currently configured, the Brewers look like a talented but incomplete club. Could that mean that Melvin is planning on reloading again in July for another run at the top of the National League?

It's certainly possible. The Brewers have cards to deal when the deadline approaches this year and if they need a push. Both Escobar and Mat Gamel are elite prospects who are very close to being major league-ready, if they're not there yet. Their emergence would create some leeway around the diamond for Milwaukee to make a deal. Gamel will either play third base or in the outfield, which could make Bill Hall or even Corey Hart expendable. Escobar is a shortstop by trade whose emergence could make either J.J. Hardy or Rickie Weeks redundant.

Players like Hall, Hardy, Weeks, or even Hart aren't guys you trade to get someone like C.C. Sabathia, but they are players that can be traded to acquire some depth for the bullpen or to plug a hole at the end of the rotation, which could be all the Brewers need this year.

2009 Outlook

Why You Should Watch: Gallardo, Parra, Braun, Fielder, Hart and even Weeks and Hardy form one of the best young cores in baseball. It's true that the Brewers didn't get a whole lot better this offseason, but then, no one in the NL Central really did. They are still the second best team in the division, even if that's not good enough for a playoff spot this year.

What Defines Success: Once you've made the playoffs, you really can't call anything a success except for another playoff berth. Still, losing Sheets and Sabathia without replacements makes this a possible down year for the Brew Crew and if Gallardo and Parra come along as top-of-the-rotation starters and Escobar and Gamel emerge, they're going to be in good shape for the future. It'll be hard to say they had a bad year in that case, even if they miss the playoffs.

Related Links

- Better Know a Prospect: Milwaukee Brewers