FanHouse continues its 2009 MLB Preview with a look at the Tampa Bay Rays.
Although they ended up falling short at the end, 2008 was the year of the Rays. After being the butt of jokes for the first 10 years of its existence, Tampa Bay turned an impressive collection of baseball talent into an impressive team, finally assembling a competent bullpen, and utilizing some position shifts to put a much improved defense on the field. With the pieces in place, everything came together, and the Rays increased their win total by 31 games on their way to winning both the AL East and AL pennant.
Now comes the tricky part: doing it again. GM Andrew Friedman and Co. made plenty of moves this offseason, but, with the exception of a few, they were mostly on the periphery; an extremely young and ridiculously talented core remains in place.
In just about any other divsion, they'd be the clear favorite. But in the murderous AL East, most experts have them finishing third, behind perennial powers Boston and New York. This team is no longer a secret, but they're going to have to prove people wrong yet again if they want to return to October.
| Lineup | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Carl Crawford | LF |
| 2. | B.J. Upton | CF |
| 3. | Evan Longoria | 3B |
| 4. | Carlos Pena | 1B |
| 5. | Pat Burrell | DH |
| 6. | Gabe Gross | RF |
| 7. | Akinori Iwamura | 2B |
| 8. | Dioner Navarro | C |
| 9. | Jason Bartlett | SS |
| Pitching Staff | ||
| 1. | James Shields | R |
| 2. | Scott Kazmir | L |
| 3. | Matt Garza | R |
| 4. | Andy Sonnanstine | R |
| 5. | Jeff Niemann | R |
| CL | Troy Percival | R |
In: Matt Joyce, OF (trade); Jason Isringhausen, RP (free agent); Pat Burrell, DH (free agent); Morgan Ensberg, 3B (free agent); Brian Shouse, RP (free agent); Adam Kennedy, 2B (free agent); Gabe Kapler, OF (free agent)
Out: Edwin Jackson, SP (trade); Rocco Baldelli, OF (free agent); Trever Miller, RP (free agent); Eric Hinske, OF (free agent); Cliff Floyd, OF (free agent)
Storylines
Tapping Into Potential ...
There's no doubting how good B.J. Upton can, and probably will, be. If you saw the playoffs last year, when he hit seven homers in 11 games, you know that. But he also hit just nine bombs during the regular season, likely because of a nagging shoulder injury. He had surgery on the shoulder during the offseason, but now a bone bruise in his left hand is likely to cause him to miss the first week of the regular season. Upton's health is such a huge deal because at 100 percent he could be an absolute force. In 2007, the former No. 2 overall pick hit .300/.386/.508 at the age of 22.
Sustaining 'Pen Success ...
Tampa Bay's bullpen had the third-lowest ERA in the AL last season, coming in at 3.55. The improvement of the relief corps was a huge part of their rise; just a year prior, Tampa's relievers combined for a horrid 6.16 ERA. But it's also going to be the most difficult part to sustain. The performance of a team's bulllpen is just about the hardest thing to predict, and a couple Rays relievers had what would appear to be career years in '08. Fireballer Grant Balfour's career ERA sits at just 3.93, but last year he posted a 1.54 mark; those two numbers for J.P. Howell were 4.90 and 2.22, respectively.
Rounding Out the Rotation ...
Long term, Tampa Bay has a ton of starting pitching depth, but come Opening Day the Rays don't have a clear fifth starter. Jackson, always talented, but never terribly productive, was traded to the Tigers. October sensation David Price was sent to the minors, if only temporarily; he'll likely occupy the No. 5 spot in the rotation at some point this summer. So for now, righties Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann are left to battle it out for the final slot. Both are very reasonable options, projected to for about a 4.70 ERA, which is quite good for a fifth starter. But the back of the rotation is one of the few places where the Rays don't know exactly what they'll get, and where it'll be coming from.
Bouncing Back ...
While the 2008 Rays improved by a historic amount, the same can't be said for each individual player. In particular, left fielder Carl Crawford and shortstop Jason Bartlett both had disappointing seasons. Crawford battled finger and hamstring injuries all year, and while he was able to stay on the field for 109 games, he wasn't his normal self, seeing his BA/OBP/SLG line drop to .273/.319/.400 from career marks of .293/.330/.435. Bartlett has never been much of a hitter, although he was down in that area last year, as his .329 OBP was his lowest mark since 2005. But the Rays acquired Barlett for his defense, and while the perceived effect was enough for him to win the team MVP, the numbers don't bear that out, indicating that he was only about three runs above average at short. That could potentially be written off as a fluke, since there's a lot of noise in single-year fielding data, but the larger trend is concerning as well; Barlett's UZR has declined in each of the last three seasons. He'll have to reverse that trend if he wants to continue to be a positive contributor.
2009 Outlook
Why You Should Watch: Do you really need to be convinced? This is an absurdly exciting team, one that could post a triple-digit win total if they get big years from guys like Upton, Crawford, and Price. While the results won't necessarily be as good, this team is rather obviously better than last year's version, with the young guys a year older and the additions of Burrell, Joyce, and others.
What Defines Success: Getting back to the postseason would be an accomplishment. Sharing a division with the Yankees and Red Sox -- giving the East the three best organizations in baseball, according to FanGraphs' recent rankings -- means that won't be easy, but it's certainly a realistic goal. And it will be for the forseeable future, as this team isn't going away anytime soon. That's not to say that they should be content with reaching the playoffs, as any team with three starters as talented as Shields, Garza, and Kazmir (and eventually Price) has the ability to go deep. But if they end up losing in the first round, even though that'd be a significant dropoff from last year's World Series appearance, it'd be hard to consider 2009 a failure.
Related Links
- Fantasy Baseball Preview: Plenty of Premium Talent
- Better Know a Prospect: Tampa Bay Rays
