From the Windup: Career-Year Blues

From the Windup is Matt Snyder's extended look at some aspect of America's pastime each Thursday.

A few days before the 2009 Major League Baseball season began, I was watching MLB Network. They were doing their Cubs' installment of "30 Teams, 30 Days." As I went to take a sip of my beverage, former Indians and Rangers general manager John Hart, when examining the Cubs' lineup, said, "you know you're gonna get your 30 homers from Derrek Lee." I'm pretty sure I spit Pepsi all over the room in disbelief.

Seriously? We "know" Derrek Lee is going to hit 30 home runs? That's outrageous. I'm a die-hard Cubs fan, and I'll be happy with 20. He only hit 20 last year, after managing a meek 7 in his last 101 games. We can go back to 2007 and see he only hit 22 home runs. The previous season, 2006, is when he suffered the broken wrist. If you look at still the previous season, you'll find the culprit for a skewed public perception.

In 2005, Derrek Lee had an absolutely mind-boggling season for any player. His numbers: 199 hits, 120 runs, 50 doubles, 46 home runs, 107 RBI, 15 steals, .335/.418/.662 and a league-leading 1.080 OPS. Hits, runs, doubles, homers, RBI, average, on-base, slugging, and obviously OPS were all career highs, and most of those numbers still blow his second best individual season totals out of the water.

In most regards, the 2005 Derrek Lee was not the real Derrek Lee. It was an outlier. The fact that it came at age 29, after he had seven full seasons under his belt, should have told us so. Instead, people blame his broken wrist. They label him a colossal bust in Chicago, to the point that fans often wish he was traded. His move down in the batting order -- with which I won't argue, because he's not a good three-hole hitter in that lineup -- is a constant discussion among Cubs fans. I've even heard people treat the end of his contract (after 2010) as if the Cubs being freed from some sort of albatross.

The other day, though, I started to wonder if Lee's actually become a victim of his insane 2005 season. When contemplating this thought, another player with somewhat similar circumstances came to mind: Adrian Beltre.

Coming into 2004, Beltre was a once-ballyhooed prospect who had already played five seasons with more than 500 plate appearances, yet he was still only 25 years old. That season, however, he gave what many thought was a glimpse of things to come from the future star. Only Barry Bonds prevented him from winning the NL MVP and he actually finished ahead of the great Albert Pujols. The numbers are simply staggering: 104 runs, 200 hits, 48 home runs, 121 RBI, .334/.388/.629.

Like Lee, though, that season obviously wasn't the real Adrian Beltre. His 1.017 OPS in 2005 dwarfs the second highest total of his career by nearly 200 points. His home run total is almost double his second highest. He's never even been an All-Star, yet he has that second-place finish in MVP voting on his resume.

If you look at the respective careers of each player, while omitting the one out-of-place season, you can make the case that each has become a victim of his lone MVP-caliber season.

Derrek Lee

Average full season without 2005 (including only 600-plus plate appearance seasons):

91 runs, 165 hits, 38 doubles, 26 home runs, 87 RBI, .276 batting average, .363 on-base percentage, .477 slugging percentage, and an .840 OPS.

Analysis: This proves my point exactly because Lee's numbers aren't overly dissimilar from Mark Grace's usual season. Lee gives up some on-base prowess (in the batting average department, not in walks), but gains it back with more power. Both did quality glove work and made a few All-Star games. Grace was beloved in Wrigley, and still is -- nearly a decade after his departure. It's true Grace was a fan favorite due to much more than numbers, but Lee is a great guy off the field. The gap in popularity only makes real sense in terms of expectations. Ever since 2005, Cubs fans -- and probably many fantasy baseball owners of his -- have expected Lee to at least somewhat approach 2005. The problem is that it's just not realistic (at least that's what I'll be telling myself the next time he single-handedly kills a rally with a tailor-made double play ball) to believe he's that kind of player.

Adrian Beltre

Average season since 2004 (because he changed leagues and scenery and was in his mid-20s when it happened):

80 runs, 158 hits, 36 doubles, 24 home runs, 88 RBI, 9 stolen bases, .266 batting average, .321 on-base percentage, .455 slugging percentage, and 776 OPS.

Analysis: Add Gold Gloves in each of the past two seasons to the above stat line, and you can make the argument Beltre is actually underrated. You've got a slightly above-average offensive player with good power who plays stellar defense. No one would ever say he's underrated, though, because his expectations were driven exponentially high after 2004. His gargantuan Mariners contract only reinforced said expectations. You don't pay $12 million a year for this type a player.

Still, check out Beltre's top six baseball-reference similars through age 29: Ron Santo, Ruben Sierra, Cal Ripken, Eric Chavez, Johnny Bench and Scott Rolen. Translation: Beltre is a really solid baseball player.

Lesser Examples

While the two most glaring cases, Lee and Beltre aren't alone. Here are three who may have become a victim to one flukey season of success.

Oliver Perez: In 2004, Ollie burst onto the scene as a 22-year-old. Sure, he had already made 39 starts in two previous seasons, but he was still essentially a prospect. After a stellar '04 campaign, though, he was well on his way to stardom. Or so we thought. The kid had a 2.98 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 30 starts. He struck out 239 batters in 196 innings, good for an astounding K/9 rate of 11. His outings ranged from good to dominant for the most part, including eight starts where he struck out at least 10 hitters.

Since then, we've seen flashes of good, but no extended stretches of dominance. His next best season was 2007, but his strikeouts were down, his walks were up, and his ERA wasn't incredibly special (3.56, which is just good). The rest of the way, his immense potential has been sidetracked by control and consistency issues.

If you could just erase that 2004 season, we could probably accept Perez for what he is. A guy who can keep you in 15-20 games each season, while probably single-handedly costing you at least five due to his awful command. Instead, we're left thinking someday he's going to see the light and put everything together.

Garrett Atkins: Atkins' 2006 season is probably going to go down as the best of his career, and he was only 26. His rate stats were insane (.329/.409/.556), due to 198 hits, 48 doubles, 29 home runs, and 79 walks (compared to only 76 strikeouts). In addition to that, his run production was pretty stellar as well, with 120 RBI and 117 runs scored. He was armed and ready to enter superstardom, but since then he's regressed. It has been gradual, but noticeable. His 2007 totals weren't great, but they were still pretty solid. Last season, though, he struck out 100 times, had only 40 walks and his rate stats had plummeted all the way down to .286/.328/.452.

Atkins is still only 29, but it's evident he's closer to the 2008 version of himself than that sparkling 2006 season. Plus, his OPS is almost 200 points higher in Coors Field than on the road. When he gets put on the trading block this season, buyer beware. I have a message for potential suitors: Disregard his 2006 numbers when judging whether or not to add him. You can thank me later.

Carl Pavano: In 2004, Carl Pavano went 18-8 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Yankees swooped right in and signed what turned out to be one of the worst contracts in recent memory. They got 26 starts for almost $40 million over the next four seasons. When he did pitch, he wasn't good. In fact, his first 17 starts in 2005 were before his injury woes. He was 4-6 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Translation: Pretty freaking bad for the money they were paying him.

The thing is, Pavano wasn't even good before '04. In 2003, the Marlins won the World Series, and he wasn't even an average pitcher. He went 12-13 with a 4.30 ERA. In 2002, his ERA was 5.16. In 2001, it was 6.33 in eight starts (which went nicely with his 1-6 record). He's not a high strikeout guy and he always gives up loads of hits.

Honestly, if it wasn't for that 2004 season, I don't think he'd even have a job right now -- at least not in the majors. Instead he's been given the opportunity to start the season 0-2 with a 16.71 ERA for the Cleveland Indians. Wow, 2004 really paid dividends for Pavano, literally.

Future Possibilities

We've given you five guys who have become victims of one season of unlikely success. Here are four who could be suffering the same fate in the future.

Edinson Volquez: This comes with an asterisk. It's actually a half season. Volquez took the National League by storm in 2008, going 10-2 in his first 15 starts. His ERA was a minuscule 1.71 and he struck out 110 batters in only 95 innings. It's certainly possible for him to learn things, and we can see the tools, but there's nothing we've seen in the minors, or in the second half of last season that says he's much better than average. If you are expecting a 3.75 ERA pitcher who strikes out his fair share of hitters while also running into control problems, OK. If you are a Reds fan and believe there's a "return to form" in the cards, I'm guessing you'll end up getting tired of waiting.

Ryan Ludwick: The most likely to be removed from this list, because he's gotten off to a very hot start this season. It's possible he's simply a late bloomer. Still, you have to wonder what took this guy so long to earn a full-time job. The power numbers did start to show in the minors, but his average and on-base figures are the ones that took a drastic leap up in 2008, which caused to power to go a bit over what seems to be his ceiling. It'd probably be more realistic to expect a .275 average with 25-30 home runs.

Cliff Lee: This was the easiest entry on here. He's never winning another Cy Young, he's never going 22-3 again, and his ERA is never going to be 75 percent better than the league average again. It's just not going to happen. Plus, he was 29 years old last season. I have a feeling if Indians fans expect the 2006 version of Lee each season -- he went 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA and ate up 200 2/3 innings -- they'll save themselves lots of heartache.

Prince Fielder: This is a longshot, but it's possible Prince is more of the 35-homer, 100-RBI, .880-OPS type hitter we saw last year than the 50-120-1.000 guy we saw in 2007 -- when he was only 23. His power isn't going anywhere, but neither is his weight. In my view, it's more likely that he ends up a fat designated hitter than returning to form. If that's true, it's not likely Brewers fans will hold him dear to their hearts, especially if Matt LaPorta becomes a star (they could easily have shifted him to first base as Fielder's replacement and dealt Prince). If I'm correct, people will always be longing for Prince to return to 2007 form, albeit unrealistically.

Expect the Norm

Look, I'm not trying to say fans of teams let down by the likes of Lee, Pavano, Beltre and Rowand have no right to be disappointed. Many of these players have made a lot of money and you can argue they didn't earn it after signing their contracts. That definitely plays into expectations. Let's also remember the players were offered these contracts by management and ownership. You can't expect them to turn the money down. As fans, sometimes we should probably base our expectations on the norm rather than the exception. Adrian Beltre is not Alex Rodriguez and Derrek Lee is not Albert Pujols. They each just played like them for one magical season. It will be a lot easier on our blood pressure to keep in mind that it's never going to happen again.

That being said, please forgive me if I'm calling for Micah Hoffpauir at first base for the Cubs in June. I am, after all, still a fan -- short for fanatic -- at heart.