In 2008 the Seattle Mariners, projected by many to contend with the Angels for the AL West title, suffered through a miserable season, finishing the year 61-101. Because of that disappointment -- they ended the season 39 games behind first place L.A. -- people were generally down on their prospects in '09. So when they started hot out of the gate, 9-6 and 2 1/2 games clear of the rest of the division, it took many by surprise.
For a variety of reasons, though, it's really not all that shocking. First and foremost, it's only 15 games; I mean, come on, even the Pirates are 9-6. But there were also a number of reasons to think that Seattle would be significantly improved entering the season.
The simplest of these is that they weren't as bad as their record last year. A team that scores 671 runs while allowing 811, as Seattle did in 2008, would be expected to go 67-95; the Mariners ended up six games worse than that. The majority of that is luck (or a lack of it), and record based on run differential is a better predictor of future success than where you finish in the traditional standings. So right there we've raised the baseline to 67 wins.
The M's also got performances from a few spots in both their lineup and rotation that were so horrendous they were sure not to be repeated. Their designated hitters -- Jose Vidro was the main culprit here, but it was truly a group effort, with 17 guys getting at least three at-bats at the position -- checked in with a miserable .221/.273/.334 line. From a position dedicated to hitting, where the league had an average OPS of .770 (to Seattle's .607), that puts a huge dent in your run production.
First base also presented a significant problem. Richie Sexson was released in early July after compiling a .710 OPS in 285 PAs. Little did the Mariners know, it would only get worse from there, as their first basemen finished the year with a .680 OPS. When you're throwing Miguel Cairo out there, though, it'd be unreasonable to expect much more.
In the offseason the Mariners acquired Russell Branyan, Ken Griffey and Mike Sweeney to improve their production at those two positions. The early results for Branyan have been excellent, with an .853 OPS. Griffey and Sweeney, while not as horrendous as their predecessors at DH, have not been as productive, although it's still way too early to make any conclusive judgments.
There were also reasons to expect Seattle's starting rotation to be better this year. Carlos Silva had an absolutely dreadful season in '08, with a 6.46 ERA in 153 1/3 innings. He's not about to win the Cy Young, but he's not as bad as last year's results would indicate; his peripheral statistics (Ks, BBs, HRs) suggested his '08 ERA should be expected to drop by nearly two runs. His first three starts of '09 have not been too impressive, but he should come around, or at least improve to an acceptable level, at some point.
Last year's team also got just 81 innings from Erik Bedard, who they paid dearly for to acquire from the Orioles the previous winter. When healthy, Bedard, who finished fifth in the Cy Young voting in '07, has top-of-the-rotation stuff. So if they could get twice as many innings from him in his second season in Seattle, that'd be a huge boost. So far, so good, as he's made all three starts while posting a 1.86 ERA, and a brilliant 23:3 K:BB ratio.
The offseason wasn't without losses, as left fielder Raul Ibanez -- easily the best hitter in a miserable lineup last year -- left as a free agent for the Phillies. But Seattle used that as an opportunity to go from Ibanez's horrid defense in left to having possibly the best defensive outfield in the league. And they did it all in one fell swoop, in the trade that sent J.J. Putz to the Mets.
In that deal the Mariners obtained, among others, Indians outfielder Franklin Gutierrez and Mets outfielder Endy Chavez. Neither are anything to write home about at the plate, but both are great defenders; last year they were both in the top five in the majors among outfielders in UZR/150, one of the best defensive metrics publicly available. Add those two to Ichiro, and the M's essentially have three center fielders roaming the spacious Safeco outfield.
Put it all together, and Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system had Seattle winning 77 games in '09, a 16-win improvment from the year before. Though there wouldn't be much hope for a team of their caliber in some other divisions, the AL West is a different story. PECOTA had the A's finishing atop the division with just 84 winsand while it is just about the best prediction system out there, there is plenty of room for error in those numbers.
Because of that uncertainty, Seattle's fast start and the variety of problems the Angels have experienced in the season's first month, the Mariners actually have a legitimate shot to finish atop the division. It won't be pretty -- they certainly won't keep up anything near their current 104-win pace, and even if they contend they'll likely struggle to score runs. But don't be surprised if the Mariners are still playing very meaningful games come September, and maybe even into mid-October.
