For Rays, It's Getting Late Early in '09

It's rather strange to say that 9-14 is a disappointing start for the Tampa Bay Rays, but they've put us in that position after their incredible emergence in 2008. Predicted by most to contend for another AL East title after last year's 97-win season, Tampa Bay disappointed in April, which has people wondering whether the Rays are for real, or if last year was just a fluke.

First off, there are a couple external factors that have negatively affected Tampa Bay in the early going. Residing in the AL East, it has to deal with a difficult schedule all the way through, but the first month was particularly tough. According to the advanced projection systems (PECOTA and CHONE), the average winning percentage of their opponents in the season's first month was .524. Over their final 139 games that SOS will drop slightly, down to .514.

That's not really a huge difference; the major issue with the Rays' early schedule has been where they've played the games. Just eight of Tampa Bay's first 23 games were played at Tropicana Field. Home-field advantage may not be as important in baseball as in some other sports, but it's still a key factor, with the host winning about 54 percent of the time. Because of these two issues, even if they played up to their potential, the Rays were only expected to win 12 or 13 of their first 23, which is well off their expected 92-win pace.

That is enough excuses though; after all, they didn't even reach those more realistic April expectations, finishing the first month with nine wins. Two of the Rays' most talented young players, Scott Kazmir and B.J. Upton, have gotten off to surprisingly slow starts.

Tampa Bay is actually 3-2 in Kazmir's five starts, but they certainly expect better than a 5.40 ERA from the young lefty. Kazmir has struggled with control, which is nothing new. But it's been even worse this year than in the past; a 5.4 BB/9 rate over a full season would be his highest since 2004. Also of concern is a noticeable dip in velocity, as the lefty has lost almost two mph off both his fastball and slider. That partially explains the dip in strikeout rate, to 7.1 K/9 from his career mark of 9.7.

Not all of the early returns from Kazmir's starts have been negative though, as two concerning trends from '08 have reversed their path. In his first three full years in the big leagues, Kazmir had a very normal groundball rate, around 42 or 43 percent. Last year, though, he saw a huge dip, all the way down to 31 percent. It doesn't matter how good your stuff is; if hitters are easily elevating the ball against you, you're going to give up a good deal of homers. And that's exactly what happened, as Kazmir allowed 23 homers in 152 1/3 innings.

Fortunately, though, he's returned to his career groundball rate this year. This development may partially be attribute to the return of his slider, which almost disappeared last year. (He threw it less than 10 percent of the time.) This year, like with his groundball rate, he's back up to his career norm of around 20 percent sliders. So if he can just put it all together, combining a good mix of pitches with the velocity and control he displayed in '08, he should be back to the level that everyone's expected from Kazmir since he came over from the Mets in the infamous Victor Zambrano trade.

B.J. Upton made a name for himself last October, hitting seven homers in just 11 games against the White Sox and Red Sox as the Rays advanced to the World Series. It's easy to forget, then, that Upton had very little power during the regular season, slugging just nine homers in 640 plate appearances. That was blamed on a shoulder injury, and after seeing what he did in the playoffs, everyone just kind of figured his power issues were behind him, and he'd finally reach his lofty ceiling in '09.

After having surgery on that shoulder in the offseason, Upton missed the first six games of 2009. Since his return, though, his power has gone right back to April-September '08 levels. In his first 75 plate appearance he hasn't hit a single homer, and has doubled just three times. Combine that was a meager .177 batting average, and Upton's slugging percentage is a miniscule .226.

One positive has been Upton's continued excellent plate discipline, drawing an impressive 13 walks in 16 games to keep his OBP at least respectable at .320. A good eye was also his saving grace last year, as he drew 97 walks on the way to posting a .383 OBP, excellent for a 23-year-old centerfielder. But if the power doesn't come, it's looking like last year's line -- .273/.383/.401 -- is his absolute ceiling, which would be a disappointment after last October's heroics.

Those two returning to form would help, but either way the Rays should be OK in the long run. They have a strong rotation even if Kazmir is average, especially when Upton's fellow October phenom, David Price, receives his inevitable callup.

Building on last year, their defense has once again been excellent, leading the league in ultimate zone rating. The problem is that the Rays have already dug themselves a hole, and in the AL East, they really didn't have much margin for error. Tampa Bay is already 5 1/2 games behind a Red Sox team which looked better than them to begin with. There's also the wild card, but it looks like two more East teams, New York and (maybe) Toronto, will be contenders for that as well.

The Rays still have a strong club, and they're by no means out of it, but they're going to have to get things going right away and probably experience some good fortune over the season's final five months to return to the playoffs.