As you might have heard, defense is the new big thing. It's not a revolutionary idea to suggest that having good defense can help you win baseball games, but the improvement the Rays made from 2007 to 2008 was quite a wake-up call around the majors. They had essentially the same pitchers, and they actually scored fewer runs, but they won 31 more games with good defense.Which brings us to the Seattle Mariners.
The Mariners were a train-wreck of a team last year, despite what we all thought was supposed to be pretty good pitching. Now, the Mariners are riding high in the AL West, with the best ERA in the league. Most of their pitchers are the same (granted, Erik Bedard has been healthy).
The difference could be Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez.
Yeah, not quite as sexy as, say, adding Manny Ramirez or Mark Teixeira or CC Sabathia, but take a look at the numbers.
Last year the Mariners' ERA was 4.73. This year it's 3.60. Just better pitching? Not necessarily. Some of the other peripheral pitching stats aren't all that different.
Strikeout percentage: 16.0 in '08; 17.8 in '09
Walk percentage: 9.8 in '08; 8.3 in '09
Home run percentage: 2.5 in '08; 1.6 in '09 (Yeah, that's a bigger jump, but homers are infrequent enough that a 25-game sample size doesn't tell you a lot.)
Then there's this ...
Opponents batting average on balls in play: .309 in '08; .284 in '09.
The league average in both years is .300, so the M's went from below average to well above average. It looks like a lot of the difference is in the outfield. Last year, the M's had Raul Ibanez in left. Ichiro Suzuki played center and right, with guys like Jeremy Reed, Brad Wilkerson and Willie Bloomquist filling in around him. Of that group, Ichiro is the only one who is really a good outfielder.
Latest Baseball Images
New York Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain walks past a rain-soaked tarp covering the field before the baseball game against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium in New York, Monday, May 4, 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
AP
New York Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain walks past a rain-soaked tarp covering the field before the baseball game against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium in New York, Monday, May 4, 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
AP
NEW YORK - MAY 04: David Ortiz #34 of the Boston Red Sox looks on prior to playing the New York Yankees on May 4, 2009 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** David Ortiz
Getty Images
NEW YORK - MAY 04: Hideki Matsui #55 of the New York Yankees looks on prior tp playing the Boston Red Sox on May 4, 2009 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Hideki Matsui
Getty Images
NEW YORK - MAY 04: David Ortiz #34 of the Boston Red Sox looks on prior to playing the New York Yankees on May 4, 2009 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** David Ortiz
Getty Images
NEW YORK - MAY 04: A tarp covers the field prior to the New York Yankees playing the Boston Red Sox on May 4, 2009 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Getty Images
NEW YORK - MAY 04: David Ortiz #34 of the Boston Red Sox looks on prior to playing the New York Yankees on May 4, 2009 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** David Ortiz
Getty Images
NEW YORK - MAY 04: David Ortiz #34 of the Boston Red Sox has a laugh with reporters prior to playing the New York Yankees on May 4, 2009 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** David Ortiz
Getty Images
NEW YORK - MAY 04: David Ortiz #34 of the Boston Red Sox looks on prior to playing the New York Yankees on May 4, 2009 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** David Ortiz
Getty Images
NEW YORK - MAY 04: Joba Chamberlain #62 of the New York Yankees walks to the dugout prior to playing against the Boston Red Sox on May 4, 2009 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Joba Chamberain
Getty Images
This year the M's have Chavez in left, Gutierrez in center and Ichiro in right. They are three above average defenders. Really, they're all center fielders.
The M's cumulative Ultimate Zone Rating for their outfielders this year is 12.4, which ranks first in the majors. (That means that the outfielders have saved the Mariners about 12.4 runs so far, above the league average.) Last year's UZR was -14.6, 22nd in the majors. If extrapolate this year's numbers over six months, that's about 70 runs saved, or a difference of about 85 runs from year.
The point to all of this is that Chavez, Gutierrez and Ichiro aren't likely to go into a defensive slump, so there's no reason they can't keep saving the M's runs all season, and making the pitchers look good. The M's could be this year's version of the Rays, in at least one way.
