The Dodgers have gotten off to a fantastic start, winning 21 of their first 30 games, including each of their first 13 at home before last night's loss to the Nationals. With none of the other four teams in the NL West getting off to even remotely comparable starts, that leaves the Dodgers six games clear of the rest of the division, and a whopping nine ahead of the team most picked to finish second back in March, Arizona.
Los Angeles' big early lead, along with the fact that they pretty clearly look like the best team in the division, had led some to declare the race over, even before Mother's Day. Obviously, losing Manny Ramirez for the next 50 games changes that equation a bit. But how much?
One way to look at it is to see how Ramirez's absence will effect the odds of L.A.'s games. Conveniently, we can see exactly what happened to the line on their game Thursday night when the suspension was announced. Playing at home against the Nationals, they had been significant favorite (-157/+149). Then, a little bit before 1PM, it suddenly shifted, to -144/+136. That is a significant jump; with the former line, the Dodgers would be expected to win 60.3 percent of the time; with the latter, 58.2 percent.
Projected out over the full 50 games of Ramirez's suspension, that amounts to just over one win. That may not seem like much, but it's probably a pretty good estimate. If you consider him a "poor" fielder, the CHONE projection system has him as being worth 3.6 wins over the full year, or 1.11 over 50 games.
That's all assuming that Ramirez's at bats will be going to "replacement level" substitutes, but in this case that's a pretty accurate assumption. Both Juan Pierre, who filled in for him in left on Thursday night, and Xavier Paul, who was called up from Triple-A to take Ramirez's place on the roster, are right around there; guys who get on base at a decent clip, but don't provide nearly the amount of power expected from the left field position, and are nothing special in the field.
According to Baseball Prospectus' Postseason Odds, the Dodgers had an 84 percent chance of winning the division as of Thursday morning, without taking the suspension into account. Docking them about .010 of win percentage for the loss of Ramirez for 50 games (which is derived from the calculations detailed above) brings them down to 80 percent; even without their best player, they're still in excellent shape.
In fact, because of the money saved by not having to pay Ramirez's salary for almost two months, the Dodgers have a chance to improve themselves over the remainder of the season. He was scheduled to make $25 million this year, which works out to $7.7 million over 50 games.
They will likely lose some money in souvenir sales, and probably attendance, but L.A. could potentially take some of that money and improve the back-end of their rotation, possibly by signing someone like Pedro Martinez, or even Ben Sheets, if he proves to be healthy later in the year. Losing Manny is obviously a huge story, but it's really not going to have that big of an effect on the Dodgers' season between the lines.
Latest Manny Ramirez Images
LOS ANGELES - MAY 7: Fans hold a smuggled in banner supporting suspended Dodger Manny Ramirez during the seventh inning stretch of the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers the Washington Nationals on May 7, 2009 at Dodger Stadiium in Los Angeles, California. All banners are prohibited in Dodger Stadium. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Getty Images
LOS ANGELES - MAY 7: A fan wearing a Manny Ramirez tee shirt for takes a picture during pregame before the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Washington Nationals on May 7, 2009 at Dodger Stadiium in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Getty Images
LOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 07: A fan in the upper deck waves a Manny Ramirez jersey during the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Washington Nationals on May 7, 2009 at Dodger Stadiium in Los Angeles, California. Ramirez was suspended for 50 games by Major League Baseball earlier in the day. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Fans show support for Dodgers left fielder Manny Ramirez who has been suspended for 50 games for violating the MLB anti-drug policy in Los Angeles May 7, 2009. REUTERS/Gus Ruelas (UNITED STATES SPORT BASEBALL)
Reuters
Fans unfurl a banner in the seventh inning in support of Dodgers left fielder Manny Ramirez who has been suspended for 50 games for violating the MLB anti-drug policy in Los Angeles May 7, 2009. REUTERS/Gus Ruelas (UNITED STATES SPORT BASEBALL)
Reuters
Supporters of suspended Los Angeles Dodgers player Manny Ramirez unfurl a banner during the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Thursday, May 7, 2009. Ramirez was suspended for 50 games by Major League Baseball Thursday after testing positive for a banned substance. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello)
AP
Maurice Lopez, from San Pedro, Calif., wears a shirt in response to the Los Angeles Dodgers' Manny Ramirez being suspended by Major League Baseball for 50 games during a baseball game between the Dodgers and Washington Nationals in Los Angeles on Thursday, May 7, 2009. (AP Photo/Hector Mata)
AP
Bryan Plummer, of Mission Viejo, Calif., displays a sign in support of Los Angeles Dodgers' Manny Ramirez during a baseball game between the Dodgers and Washington Nationals in Los Angeles on Thursday, May 7, 2009. Ramirez was suspended for 50 games by Major League Baseball. (AP Photo/Hector Mata)
AP
Los Angeles Dodgers manager Joe Torre, right, and general manager Ned Colletti hold a news conference concerning suspended Dodgers slugger Manny Ramirez, at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Thursday, May 7, 2009. Ramirez was suspended for 50 games by Major League Baseball on Thursday. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello)
AP
(FILES: This April 9, 2009 file photo shows Manny Ramirez of the Los Angeles Dodgers preparing to bat against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, California. Dodgers star Ramirez has tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs and has been slapped with a 50-game suspension, Major League Baseball announced on May 7, 2009. Files/ Donald Miralle/Getty Images/AFP == FOR NEWSPAPERS, INTERNET, TELCOS & TELEVISION USE ONLY == (Photo credit should read DONALD MIRALLE/AFP/Getty Images)
AFP/Getty Images
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-08-2009 @ 10:07AM
fc4u2do said...
BS.BS. THIS WILL AFFECT THE TEAM,,,WHO ARE THEY KIDDING.....
Reply
5-08-2009 @ 1:51PM
sportsfntic22 said...
Manny is L.A.s star player, who are they kdding....tehy are at a disadvantage now, but like the article says I think torre can handle the whole situation with class
Reply
5-08-2009 @ 3:48PM
dinohealth said...
Thankfully, the game is not played by statistics nerds! Amazing what you can do with them, on paper. Any team that loses a .400 bat, umpty homeruns, and umpty RBI, is big-time affected! This will become increasingly evident as the season progressess. About the only thing Joe can do is try to limit the damage. You have to be kidding me with this article and its conclusion!
Reply
5-09-2009 @ 8:05AM
dinohealth said...
Thought I would revisit this story: LA has already lost the first two games since he left...and counting...One was lost 11-9, and the other, 3-1: The difference? One Manny-Swing!
7-14-2009 @ 3:26PM
dinohealth said...
Time to re-visit this prediction. I have to say I should have figured San Francisco would fold before the All-Star break!!!!!
5-08-2009 @ 6:51PM
Martin said...
An easier analysis is to look at how the Dodgers fared last year before and after they got Manny, as most of their hitters remain the same. They lost Kent but picked up Hudson (an improvement) and they have Furcal back from injury. Their other young players should play a little better this year after getting another year of experience under their belt.
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5-08-2009 @ 6:59PM
john L. said...
This 36 year old had better wake up...not too many years left....and if he does not squander all his money away...which in itself would be a miracle......he better hang on to what he has......what will he do once his career is over....sell banned substances to players???
Manny needs the Dodgers way more than they need him! Baseball will survive without him ...the question is can he survive without baseball?
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5-08-2009 @ 7:49PM
sandytarrdesign said...
Maybe Manny the ethically chalanged one can share some of his juice with the rest of the team.
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5-09-2009 @ 12:03AM
reikilight said...
What a JOKE this article is!!! One game difference is all Manny will make in not playing in 50 games? Another typical Southern Cal blogger who doesn't know baseball or what one good hitter can make in a lineup! I am so thrilled that Manny got caught finally! His old buddy Mitchell who supposedly did an unbiased investigation left Manny off the list and same with A Rod ... and MLB has been all about prosecuting and trying to make Bonds the scapegoat for baseball and PED's ... and most with a brain knew all along that steroids were legal for over 40 years and baseball and many pro sports are flooded with users while the naive claim baseball is pure ... WHAT A JOKE! Manny is just another ballplayer who got caught ... there are tons out there that haven't been yet ... but this story is just plain STUPID! Manny is their offense! I say they will be in 4th place by the time he returns!
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5-09-2009 @ 12:12AM
reikilight said...
LA will FLOUNDER without Manny ... Who are you kidding?! Without Manny they will slide towards the bottom of the NL West and I for one am LMAO at how they are trying to trivialize what Manny's loss to the Dodgers will be! Now ... Why is it that Manny and A Rod and many many others were not named in Mitchell's investigation? I'll tell you why! That report was a whitewash and PR job by MLB to minimalize how rampid MLB is with drugs! I have no big problem with it ... I have just hated to see how Bond's was the object for so long for the haters ... and remember ... Bonds never failed a steroid drug test ... and lets see ... The Rocket ... Manny and A Rod all have ... and the government still wastes money on going after Barry? This whole story is so stupid ... ball players have been using steroids since the late 50's ... so to act so pure is just marketing and LIES!
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5-09-2009 @ 7:36AM
DUKE said...
DOES IT STRIKE YOU FUNNY THAT JOE TORRE IS INVOLVED IN THE MANNY CASE? WASN'T JOE TORRE MANAGER OF THE YANKESS WHERE AT LEAST ONE THIRD OF THE TEAM WAS ON STERIODS?
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5-10-2009 @ 1:23AM
gilmjr5 said...
Dinohealth, The Dodgers did lose two games, But their first lose was because of pitching not hitting. The second lose maybe Manny could have helped. But they won their third game with plenty of runs. So yes they still will win their division with or without Manny.
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