From the Windup: Reds Miss Dunn

From the Windup is Matt Snyder's extended look at some aspect of America's pastime each Thursday. It appears Saturday because of the A-Rod and Manny Ramirez news.

Heading into Saturday's action, the Cincinnati Reds have played pretty good baseball. They've taken some lumps, but overall it's been a good start for a team that finished 14 games under .500 in 2008. They've gotten good pitching, but their offense leaves something to be desired. Only the Diamondbacks and Giants have scored less runs in the NL.

Boy, they could really use Adam Dunn.

Seriously.

Many Reds fans talk about Dunn like he was the biggest disappointment to ever grace the franchise, but had they found a way to bring him back via free agency this offseason they would be one of the better teams in the National League.

The main problem with the Reds is they have a collection of good hitters but no big bat. Even some in the organization would admit as much. The starting pitchers are coming around as they thought they would and the bullpen has done well. The offense, though, is collectively struggling and it's likely because it is missing that one guy in the middle. In the spring, as Ed Price pointed out in a preseason Baseball Brunch, the Reds really felt they had all the power they needed as it was to be spread around between several players.

The point being illustrated thus far, though, is that one big bopper in the middle can mean for other players. Look at the Dodgers and Manny Ramirez as a recent example. Dunn's no Manny -- at least he's clean! -- but he's a feared slugger who can cause a trickle-down effect in a lineup that has several very capable hitters.

Just look at the Reds' current offense. Joey Votto is a great hitter, but he's not a prodigious power threat that's going to scare pitchers from the on-deck circle. He's probably going to be a 25-30 homer guy for the rest of his career while driving in runs and hitting at a very high clip. Jay Bruce is still shaping himself as a major league hitter, and you can expect serious hills and valleys. His ceiling is very high, but he's not hitting more than 35 home runs this year. Brandon Phillips and Edwin Encarnacion have underachieved thus far, and you have a collection of role players around this group.

In Washington, Dunn is mashing as usual. He's hitting .296 with eight home runs and 24 RBI. He's walked almost as many times (26) as he's struck out (29). He's ninth in the NL with a 1.025 OPS. He's helping the Nationals to post superior offensive numbers to the Reds across the board.

If you batted Votto second, Phillips third, Dunn cleanup, Encarnacion fifth (when he returns from injury) and Bruce sixth, that looks like a pretty sparkling lineup. [NOTE: I'd rather have Bruce fifth, but I know Dusty Baker and other major league managers are obsessed with the whole left-right-left-right thing] Votto would do what he does: Hit for a high average, get on base, and mix in occasional power. Phillips would greatly benefit from having Dunn's protection. Dunn would do what he does: Hit 40 bombs, drive in 100 runs (probably more in this lineup) and get on-base at a near-.400 clip. That leaves lot of RBI opportunities for Encarnacion, Bruce and Ramon Hernandez.

We can argue all day about how strong the lineup would be, but we have to agree it would be better than (Reds' current NL ranks): 12th in runs, 13th in doubles, 12th in home runs, 11th in average, 10th in on-base percentage and 14th in slugging percentage. Just dropping Dunn's stats in would boost those ranks, and that's without the benefit his presence would have on the supporting cast.

As far as defensively, which is always a major concern with Dunn, he's been adequate in Washington this season. He has committed only one error in 25 games in the outfield. According to both ESPN's zone rating and FanGraphs' UZR, Dunn has shown more range than Bruce -- who has also committed one error -- in right field. The Reds have made four errors in left field. Plus, when using the eye test -- judging from both his play for the Nationals and the USA World Baseball Classic team -- Dunn appears to be much less of a donkey in right than he was for years in left field for the Reds. It could be a small sample, he could be more suited for right, or he could just be improving on defense via hard work. He's only 29, after all. Regardless, him in right and Bruce in left wouldn't damage the Reds defense significantly.

Other complaints I've heard from Reds fans in the past stem from their belief that he doesn't hit well in the clutch. When it comes to the 2009 Reds, I'd like to ask: What rallies? We're talking about one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. It's true Dunn hasn't been clutch throughout the early course of his career -- though he's never been awfully unclutch since his rookie year -- but there's something to be said for early-inning scoring as well. It eases the mind of your own starting pitcher, and playing with the lead is much easier than playing from behind. There's also the way Dunn racks up strikeouts. While I agree it can be frustrating to watch a player strike out upwards of 200 times a season, a strikeout is still just an out. If the object of hitting is to avoid making outs, Dunn is very good at it. His on-base percentage -- sorry Dusty and Brandon -- is .383 for his career and a robust .444 this season. Say what you want about Dunn, but he's only making outs 55.5 percent of the time this season. That's pretty damn solid.

I'm not saying he's the savior of the world here, I'm just saying the Reds offense is severely lacking in terms of one big bat in the middle. Adam Dunn hits 40 home runs every single season. It's the most automatic occurrence in baseball. I don't care if he hits every single one of them when the team is trailing by eight runs because every opposing pitcher sees him as a big-time home run threat when his batting spot approaches -- meaning better pitches to hit for people like Votto and Phillips.

It's easy for Reds fans to continue to stigmatize Dunn, after all, they are finally a decent team now that he's gone. To claim it's because he was somehow carrying around this losing bug, however, is to insinuate he makes pitchers worse. The Reds are winning with pitching. The Nationals are losing because of pitching.

We can not ignore the money, of course. The Reds don't exactly have tons of it, but I still believe they could have landed Dunn in the offseason. They added about $4 million when they dealt Ryan Freel and change for Hernandez. They signed Willy Taveras for $2.25 million for this season, and re-upped with Jerry Hairston for $2 million for this season. They signed Arthur Rhodes for $2 million as well. That gets us to roughly Dunn's salary. Of course, would the team be the same without Hernandez handling the pitching staff or Rhodes setting up? Probably not, but there were cheaper catching options like Paul Bako and Henry Blanco, for example. We don't know what it would have taken to sign Dunn, though, or if the team could have dumped payroll elsewhere. What we do know is the Reds were content to head into the season without a big-time power bat in the middle of their order.

Another thing we know is that had the Reds found a way to bring Adam Dunn back in the offseason, they'd be a much bigger threat in the National League than as things currently stand.