Tigers' Doubted Rotation Now Roaring

Coming into 2009, the Detroit Tigers' rotation didn't exactly look like a strength. Every member of the staff had some serious question marks, which was a big reason that very few analysts picked the Tigers to emerge victorious from the AL Central. But now, as we approach June, a few Detroit starters have answered those concerns emphatically, making the Tigers the clear favorite to win the division.

Nobody is a better example of this than Justin Verlander. Thought of as one of the more promising starters in baseball after posting a 3.66 ERA in 201 2/3 innings two years ago at the age of 24, Verlander had an extremely disappointing 2008 campaign. He once again threw 201 innings, but they were of far lower quality; his strikeout rate was down, his walk rate up and he'd lost more than a mile per hour on his average fastball velocity.

That last thing was the largest concern; 25-year old pitchers have down years all the time, but rarely do they lose a significant amount of velocity. That issue followed him into the '09 season, when people weren't really sure what to expect from the right-hander out of Old Dominion. In nine starts thus far, though, he's exceeded just about any reasonable expectation.

If one just looks at the results, it appears that Verlander got off to a pretty awful start, allowing 24 runs in 21 innings over his first four outings. But a closer look painted a much more promising picture. Despite the elevated ERA, Verlander was back to striking guys out at his pre-2008 rate, and then some, with an impressive 25 whiffs in 21 innings. And the velocity was back as well, as his average fastball was up from 93.6 mph last year to 95.3 this season; that was the second biggest improvement in the league. Either of those improvements are excellent signs by themselves, but put them together and things were really looking good for Verlander.

And, indeed, his five most recent starts require no qualifiers; Verlander has been dominant in every sense of the word. In 29 1/3 innings he's allowed just three runs, with a ridiculous 44-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He hasn't allowed a home run over that span and his ERA -- at 9.00 in late April -- is all the way down to 3.99. Verlander is back to his 2007 form, and even that is tempering expectations, as his peripherals have been as good as just about anyone's over the first 6 1/2 weeks of the year.

Another guy nobody was exactly penciling in for Cy Young votes back in March was Edwin Jackson. The flame-throwing righty saw his ERA drop by over a run from '07 to '08, but that was mostly helped by external factors, particularly Tampa Bay's vastly improved defense. Jackson, who the Tigers acquired from the Rays this offseason, had actually seen large drops in both his strikeout and ground ball rates last year, although he was walking fewer batters. Always a tantalizing talent, there weren't many signs that he was about to live up to his potential.

Well, for 52 innings this year at least, that's exactly what he's done. Jackson has gone back to striking out just as many batters as he did two years ago, with one huge difference; he's walking less than half as many batters as he did back in '07. While it's still early, with his velocity up a tick as well it looks like he'll be a real asset going forward, which is more than could have been said two months ago.

It hasn't all been good news in Detroit, as Armando Galarraga has experienced a rather predictable regression after pitching way over his head last season. But that's really been the only negative. 20-year-old Rick Porcello, who had never pitched above A-ball prior to this year, has demonstrated that he can be a league-average pitcher even at this young age, controlling the strike zone well and continuing to get a ton of ground balls. They've also gotten help -- well, one impressive start at least -- from a guy nobody expected much from, as Dontrelle Willis one-hit the potent Rangers' offense for 6 1/3 innings on Tuesday night. And, at least theoretically, more help is on the way; Jeremy Bonderman made a rehab start in Triple-A Toledo on Thursday night.

The Tigers aren't a lock to win the Central, or even a prohibitive favorite like the Dodgers in the NL West; the pitching has been quite good, but, despite Miguel Cabrera's dominance their offense has barely been above average. But especially with their current three-game lead on the Royals, they are the favorite in the division, and their October prospects -- both to get there and win in the postseason -- are looking a lot better than they were a couple months ago.