
Last week in this space we looked at the players which have been most valuable through the first two months of the season. Those are the guys that always get the most press, but the other end of the spectrum -- players who are costing their teams dearly -- is really more interesting.
There's nothing to do when a guy is playing well other then watch him dominate; when a player is struggling, though, especially as much as these guys are, there's a problem that desperately needs to be solved. We'll look at the two guys who, according to FanGraphs' player values, have been even less valuable than the most high-profile case in this category, David Ortiz.
Colorado third baseman Garrett Atkins has been the second least valuable player in all of baseball, costing the Rockies 1.2 wins below a freely available replacement level player. Atkins' fall since his 2006 peak has been precipitous, as he's gone from being worth $22.0 million that year to -$6.6 million through the first two months of this season.
(Ed. Note: Naturally, he chose the day this piece was written to homer twice.)
Atkins' glove at third was never good -- he's been about 10 runs below average each of the past two years, and is on pace to sustain about that level in 2009. It's his offense that has caused his dramatic fall. In his career year three seasons ago, Atkins hit .329/.409/.556; this year he's all the way down to a pathetic .194/.269/.311.
Atkins is still walking at a decent clip, but that's about the only positive thing you could say about his current performance. His power is way down, from 77 extra-base hits in '06 to a meager pace of 35 in '09. This year he's also completely stopped hitting line drives, with his LD rate down to 13.8 percent from a career mark of 22.2 percent. Those two things are how you combine to put up a .311 slugging percentage over two months.
The Rockies do have a replacement available who has started to get some time at third in Ian Stewart. He hasn't hit all that well this year, but he's been better than Atkins, and has a very strong minor-league track record. He also has a better glove than Atkins, with average numbers in just under 700 major league innings at third, and a similar reputation.
Benching Atkins entirely might be a difficult sell, especially after just two months, but the Rockies have the fortune of not having to do that. Stewart hits from the left side, while Atkins is a righty, so that forms a natural platoon right there. Stewart projects to both hit and field better from here on out, so at the very least the Rockies need to limit Atkins' starts to days that the opponent has a lefty on the hill.
Just below Atkins at the bottom of the FanGraphs leaderboard is Twins left fielder Delmon Young. Unlike Atkins, Young never had much power to lose. In his best year he didn't even reach 15 homers. But lose it he has, going from 38 doubles and 13 homers with the (then Devil) Rays in '07 to an astounding two extra-base hits in 125 plate appearances this year. He also rarely draws walks -- just five all year -- putting his overall line at an incredibly compact .231/.272/.265.
A failed center fielder, the Twins moved Young to left after acquiring him from Tampa Bay, and he's pretty bad there as well. All told, for 2008 he comes in at 1.3 wins below replacement. But unlike Atkins, this lack of value isn't new for Young, who had been right around replacement level each of the last two years.
He doesn't turn 24 until September, but has gone in the wrong direction each of the past three seasons, and is really killing Minnesota's offense right now.
Because of his youth, the Twins probably don't want to give up on Young completely but, like Atkins, he definitely shouldn't be starting when he doesn't have the platoon advantage.
Denard Span has been splitting time between left and center, but he should really be filling in for Young whenever a righty is on the hill, leaving center to Carlos Gomez. Maybe exclusively facing lefties will help him get back on track, but more likely it'll just minimze how much Young costs the team, while he continues to make the trade he came over in, in which the Rays acquired both Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett, look like one of the more lopsided swaps in recent memory.

















Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-08-2009 @ 12:57PM
Frank and Angela said...
Brad Lidge
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