MLB Draft 2009: Who Hit, Who Missed?

It's impossible to really evaluate a baseball draft until years after it's over, when the players have all had a chance to develop and grow into whatever type of big leaguers they are destined to be.

Of course, here at FanHouse we're not patient enough for that. We waited, oh, about an hour after the first day of the draft was over before we hit up three independent analysts to get their take on what transpired.

We talked to John Manuel, editor of Baseball America; Ben Hyman, director of amateur scouting for Real Baseball Intelligence; and John Klima, editor of Baseball Beginnings.

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The experts agreed that any discussion of who fared the best on Tuesday has to start with the Nationals. They obviously got Stephen Strasburg, who was the best player in the draft and arguably the best player in the history of the draft. They also got Stanford reliever Drew Storen at No. 10, whom Manuel called a "solid college pitcher with ability." And in the third round they picked University of Georgia right-hander Trevor Holder, an easy-to-sign senior who throws 94 mph.

One of the other teams that scored big was the Rockies. They had five picks on the first day and ended up with three players -- California high school pitchers Tyler Matzek (pictured right), Sacramento State outfielder Tim Wheeler and Lipscomb University lefty Rex Brothers -- who at one point were considered middle-first-round talents, Manuel said.

"From an organization that had been way too conservative draft-wise, they did things differently this year and I'm impressed with the results," Manuel said.

Manuel added that the Rockies may have gotten the single biggest steal of the first round, taking Matzek at No. 11.

"He's a big athletic left-hander with premium stuff and a good pro body," Manuel said. "Those guys usually don't last 10 picks. His ceiling is a lot higher than Mike Minor (Atlanta, No. 7) and Mike Leake (Cincinnati, No. 8). He's big time. I can't believe they got him at No. 11."

Hyman said he also liked the Padres picks of a couple of high-ceiling high school outfielders in Donovan Tate (pictured below right) at No. 3 and Everett Williams at No. 52. The Mariners went the other way with two relatively safe, polished college hitters, taking North Carolina teammates Dustin Ackley (pictured below left) and Kyle Seager.

Among the best single picks was the Royals' nabbing Aaron Crow at No. 12, Hyman said. Crow went unsigned after the Nationals drafted him last year. He had been pitching in an independent league.

"He's got two easy plus pitches, a mid 90s fastball, great slider, great command," Hyman said. "He's polished. He's got a lot of solid college pitching. I thought a guy like Crow was the best of the rest [after Strasburg]. To get him at No. 12, I think the Royals have to be thrilled with that."

Klima said the Orioles might take some heat for picking Southern California prep righty Matt Hobgood at No. 5, but he liked the selection. He's compared him to Matt Cain.

"I think they saw a right handed staff anchor, which is why they went for him," Klima said. "I know they were on him pretty good all year. It wasn't a fly-by-night sign-ability pick. They did like him. I'm sure they are thinking they have Brian Matusz (the No. 4 pick from last year) left and Hobgood from the right. Baltimore fans are surprised he went that high, but most people didn't think he'd get out of the first 10."

In identifying the worst moves of the day, the group was unanimous in picking the Pirates, who took Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez with the No. 4 pick. Considering that word leaked out before the draft that the Pirates had already reached an agreement with Sanchez, it is clear this was a pick driven by dollars.

"I just think you have to ask yourself if you are Pittsburgh, do they really believe that Tony Sanchez is the fourth best player on the board?" said Manuel, who added that Sanchez is Yadier Molina at best and Kelly Shoppach at worst. "He's a quality kid, with tremendous makeup, but talent-wise I don't think he fits at No. 4. ... It's hard to see what the Pirates are doing. It's hard to see the plan. I'm not saying it's not there. I just don't see it."

First Round Recap
No.	Team	Player	Pos.
1	WAS	Stephen Strasburg	P
2	SEA	Dustin Ackley	OF
3	SD	Donovan Tate	CF
4	PIT	Tony Sanchez	C
5	BAL	Matt Hobgood	P
6	SF	Zach Wheeler	P
7	ATL	Mike Minor	P
8	CIN	Mike Leake	P
9	DET	Jacob Turner	P
10	WAS	Drew Storen	P
11	COL	Tyler Matzek	P
12	KC	Aaron Crow	P
13	OAK	Grant Green	SS
14	TEX	Matt Purke	P
15	CLE	Alex White	P
16	ARZ	Bobby Borchering	3B
17	ARZ	A.J. Pollock	OF
18	FLA	Chad James	P
19	STL	Shelby Miller	P
20	TOR	Stephen Jenkins	P
21	HOU	Jiovanni Mier	SS
22	MIN	Kyle Gibson	P
23	CHW	Jared Mitchell	CF
24	LAA	Randal Grichuk	LF
25	LAA	Mike Trout	CF
26	MIL	Eric Arnett	P
27	SEA	Nick Franklin	SS
28	BOS	Reymond Fuentes	CF
29	NYY	Slade Heathcott	CF
30	TB	LeVon Washington	2B
31	CHC	Brett Jackson	CF
32	COL	Tim Wheeler	OF

Hyman said the Pirates should have learned their lesson from 2007, when they made an apparently financial decision to draft Daniel Moskos at No. 4 instead of Matt Wieters.

"It doesn't seem they learned from that," Hyman said. "They wanted to save some money. [Sanchez] is a solid big-leaguer, but at the fourth pick with guys like (Zack) Wheeler, Tyler Matzek, Aaron Crow and Jacob Turner on the board, to go with Tony Sanchez is puzzling to me."

Manuel also singled out the Diamondbacks' selection of Notre Dame outfielder A.J. Pollock at No. 17 as a strange pick.

"That's a typical Arizona conservative, low upside safe pick," he said. "I guess you have to take some of those when you have extra picks (Arizona had eight picks on the first day). He's got lower upside than every outfielder that went after him."

The three experts were all surprised that two pitchers with medical questions, Tanner Scheppers and Kyle Gibson, fell as much as they did. Scheppers, who didn't sign out of Fresno State last year because he was hurt, went undrafted until Texas took him at No. 44.

"There were scouting directors that said the only guy with better stuff than Scheppers was Strasburg, and he threw 98 two days before the draft," Manuel said. "There have to be some makeup issues with him. Think about it. His Fresno State team loses him last year and then goes on to win the College World Series?"

Gibson, a right-hander out of Missouri, was out about six weeks with a stress fracture. The Twins got him with the No. 22 pick.

"Gibson and Scheppers, I thought their injury concerns weren't serious enough given their talent," Hyman said. "Gibson missed six weeks. That's how long Stephen Strasburg is going to hold out."

Which brings us to the second phase of this process. Now that the players have been drafted, the teams must sign them. Although all of the first-round picks are likely to sign before the Aug. 17 deadline (the normal deadline, Aug. 15, is a Saturday this year), some may do so with only minutes to spare.

Strasburg will obviously be the one most closely watched, but Tate, the No. 3 pick, will also command a big deal to get him out of going to North Carolina to play baseball and football. St. Louis prep pitcher Jacob Turner (Tigers, No. 9), Texas high school pitcher Matt Purke and Matzek will also be looking for big bonuses to get them out of college commitments. At least one college junior, USC shortstop Grant Green (A's, No. 13), also a Scott Boras client, is expected to drive a hard bargain.