Cubs Misplace Blame in Hitting Woes

The Chicago Cubs were the best offensive team in the National League in 2008. Statements like these are usually regarded as opinions, but it remains an absolute fact. There's no way to argue against it.

In 2009, the Cubs' offense has pretty much sucked. It's fairly tough to argue with that as well. Naturally, Jim Hendry -- the Cubs general manager who decided that 97 regular season wins was somehow a mirage and the ridiculously small three-game playoff sample meant the team needed to get more left-handed in the offseason -- fired hitting coach Gerald Perry Sunday. The move reeks of CYA at its very worst, although with no real ownership in place, it's hard to see when Hendry will ever have to be accountable for his mistakes. Still, there's no way Perry was to blame for the '09 offensive woes.

When Gerald Perry took over as Cubs hitting coach in 2007, he inherited an offense that left much to be desired. Only the Pirates scored fewer runs in 2006, and the Cubs ranked dead last in on-base percentage. Sure, Alfonso Soriano and Mark DeRosa were added in addition to the return of Derrek Lee for a full season, but still, that's a pretty bad offensive foundation to begin with.

The strides they made in 2007 were significant. The Cubs shot up to eighth in runs and ninth in on-base percentage. That is middle-of-the-pack, but it was still good enough to get the Cubs to the top of the mediocre-at-best NL Central and into the playoffs. Following that season, the Cubs added Kosuke Fukudome and Reed Johnson. These didn't represent enormous upgrades to an offense which was pretty much just average.

Yet, the strides they made in 2008 were off the charts. The Cubs led the NL in runs, and it wasn't even close. They scored 56 more runs than the Mets and Phillies, who tied for second. The Cubs also finished first in the league in doubles, RBI, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and walks. They finished second in hits and batting average, and were in the top five in home runs and sacrifices. No other team sported anything close to this lofty offensive resume.

Compare what Perry took over to what he had in 2008, and you have to give him serious props for his dealings with the offense.

All of a sudden, the Cubs' 2009 offense is really, really bad. They rank 14th in the NL in runs, 13th in batting average, 12th in on-base percentage and 10th in slugging percentage. In the last 23 games before Sunday, the Cubs scored two runs or less 13 times. Is it Perry's fault? I present Exhibit A:

Look at the 2008 numbers for the following Cubs compared to their current numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG).

Geovany Soto - 2008: .285/.364/.504; 2009: .209/.322/.294
Soriano - 2008: .280/.344/.532; 2009: .233/.300/.461
Milton Bradley - 2008: .321/.436/.563; 2009: .226/.338/.380
Mike Fontenot - 2008: .305/.395/.514; 2009: .240/.325/.402

Three of these guys are All-Stars, and the other is part of the reason Hendry decided he could part with DeRosa. Partially due to these guys, the 2009 offense is dreadful, and it really shouldn't be.

Out from the 2008 everyday lineup is DeRosa. Platoon player Jim Edmonds is also gone. Chicago slid Fukudome into Edmonds' spot, put Bradley in right field and Fontenot at second base. Those are the changes. You can argue all you want about chemistry -- which is probably valid with the loss of the wildly popular DeRosa -- but the offense isn't drastically different. It's a tad bit worse on paper, especially considering how much time Bradley misses with minor injuries -- and the fact that the team's best overall hitter, Aramis Ramirez, has been on the shelf for most of the season -- but not this much worse. The hitting shouldn't be this bad. Again, look at that above list of four and how badly they are underachieving. From Hendry's perch, he obviously felt the blame for this lied with Perry. Do you? I sure as hell don't. You can't just all of a sudden forget how to coach in less than a year.

Judging from the strides the Cubs made under Perry the previous two seasons, and the fact that Hendry messed with the incredible 2008 offensive chemistry, it's hard to see how Perry is the one deserving of the unemployment line right now. It's never been more clear that hitting coaches are merely window dressing, ready to serve as the general manager's sacrificial lamb should things go south offensively.

If Jim Hendry really wants to see what is ailing the offense, though, he should simply saunter through the players' locker room -- specifically leering at the four players listed above -- or look in the mirror. Firing a solid hitting coach is simply a public relations move and it does nothing to help the team in the long run. If the Cubs do collectively break out of these extraordinary slumps, it's going to be due to a normalization of their numbers, not a new hitting coach.

Please note: All numbers were as of Perry's firing, thus, do not include Sunday's stats.