Can This Be the Cubs' Turnaround?

Earlier this week, I joined up with Andrew Johnson and Will Brinson on the inaugural BaseCast to discuss the Cubs' unbelievably disappointing start to the 2009 season. To conclude the segment, I was asked if the Cubs can get things straightened out and win the division. I said that was an easy answer because of the word choice. Of course they can. Had the question been "will they?" I would have said no.

Just two days later, there are plenty of reasons on the horizon to believe they can head into the All-Star break not only in thick of things in the NL Central, but atop it. Wouldn't that be a weird sight -- seeing the Cubs in first place after such a disastrous first half.

I'm not going to wade through everything negative that's happened regarding the team like you need some lesson on what has happened this season in Wrigleyville. It's available anywhere you look. Cubs fans love to complain and overreact -- like the contingent of fools who think Carlos Zambrano should be traded -- and national columnists and non-Cubs fan bloggers alike love to remind us fans any chance they get: Sorry, guys, it's not going to happen this year. Just wanted to let you know. How insightful and original.

Instead, we're going to simply focus on the fact that after last night's defeat over the Milwaukee Brewers, the Cubs sit a mere 2 1/2 games out of first place and have won three of their last four.

So, from the mind of an admittedly schizophrenic Cubs fan (I never write it, but I routinely say I'm done watching them and then can't stop -- it's like a drug addict looking for a fix), I'm back drinking the Kool-Aid of optimism.

Consider:

- Aramis Ramirez is the Cubs' best hitter. Without him, the offense seemed to lack a hole and -- until Derrek Lee got scorching hot -- definitely lacked an anchor. The underachieving hitters shouldn't be so mentally consumed by his absence, but it's possible the trickle-down effect of not having Ramirez in the lineup caused more harm to the offense than most thought it would. Anyway, Ramirez is going on a rehab assignment Thursday and could be back as early as Monday.

- When Ramirez comes back Monday, he could be joined by Reed Johnson and Angel Guzman. Johnson is a high energy guy who could find ways to help the offense when it's going through a dry spell, and he's also a key defensive replacement in late innings on days he doesn't start. Guzman has been the most reliable reliever in the bullpen. The 27-year-old has a 2.53 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 32 innings this season. In his last 15 outings, he's got a 1.08 ERA. Having him back should ease the burden on Carlos Marmol and could, conceivably, give Marmol a boost in production.

- The Cubs have 10 games until the All-Star break. They currently sit with a nice and tidy, albeit insanely disappointing, 38-38 record. They are, however, really good at home. After the Thursday win, they are now 22-13 at home. Those 10 pre-break games? All in the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field. Of those 10, seven are against the Brewers and Cardinals.

- The offense is showing some signs of life. Lee is on fire. Geovany Soto is also really starting to swing the bat well. Jake Fox and Sam Fuld (depending on if a table-setter or power-stick is needed) are giving Lou Piniella alternatives for the outfield should Alfonso Soriano continue his refusal to lay off out of the strike zone breaking pitches or Milton Bradley need to be benched due to, well, anything. Ryan Theriot is getting away from that ugly uppercut swing he fell into after his home run surge in early May. Piniella even used a hit-and-run Wednesday night (maybe he listened to the BaseCast where I said he never does that anymore).

- The starting pitching has been very solid, and there's little reason to believe it will get worse. In fact, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden have largely underachieved to this point. Harden is coming off a very encouraging outing, too. Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly have been good, but not out of character. Randy Wells has been a Godsend who could regress, but he's not fooling hitters. He's getting them out by changing speeds and hitting spots.

- Milton Bradley. Sigh. Look, he's obviously not used to the pressure cooker he's thrown himself into. His career offensive numbers show that he has the ability to get really hot in the second half. What the Cubs need to count on is the presence of Ramirez and the hope that the team starts winning. If the middle of the lineup is driving home runs and the team is winning games, much less focus will be put on Bradley. In that case, it's likely he'll be able to relax and start to swing a good bat.

Finally, remember back in 2007 when Piniella went ballistic on an umpire, in contrived and premeditated theatrics intended to jump-start the team? They played great baseball from that point forward, going 63-46. The blowup wasn't the sole reason the team started to play better, but reports from around the club suggested it relaxed the players and got Piniella in better favor with them. With the recent news that he's the manager players would least like to play for, maybe his ejection Thursday night had a similar effect.

Last time I tried to say there were reasons for optimism, they lost eight games in a row. Some might be so ego-centric to proclaim some karmic retribution came into play and be scared to write this piece -- for fear it would happen again. Fortunately, I am rational enough to not believe in curses.

This can be the beginning of a long-lasting turn-around.

Will it? Stay tuned ...